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Are banks still 'too big to fail'? - A market perspective

Author

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  • Dr. Nicole Allenspach
  • Oleg Reichmann
  • Javier Rodriguez-Martin

Abstract

This paper aims at deriving the market's assessment as to whether banks worldwide still benefit from a Too Big To Fail (TBTF) subsidy. Such a subsidy reflects the market's expectation of government support in the event of a crisis and results in reduced funding costs for the benefiting bank. To capture this effect, we use two different extensions of the Merton (1974) framework. We find that large banks benefit from a TBTF subsidy, while large nonfinancial firms do not. This subsidy has declined somewhat since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) but remains larger than before the crisis. These conclusions also hold when considering Contingent Convertible (CoCos) and bail-in bonds as fully loss-absorbing. Moreover, we find differences in the TBTF subsidy across jurisdictions and provide evidence that these can to a large extent be explained by differences in bank health.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Nicole Allenspach & Oleg Reichmann & Javier Rodriguez-Martin, 2021. "Are banks still 'too big to fail'? - A market perspective," Working Papers 2021-18, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-18
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2021/working_paper_2021_18
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tryggvi Gudmundsson, 2016. "Whose Credit Line is it Anyway: An Update on Banks' Implicit Subsidies," IMF Working Papers 2016/224, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Andreas Jobst & Mr. Dale F Gray, 2013. "Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis: Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 2013/054, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sebastian Schich & Arturo Estrella, 2015. "Valuing guaranteed bank debt: Role of strength and size of the bank and the guarantor," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 3(5), pages 19-32, October.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    5. Acharya, Viral & Anginer, Deniz & Warburton, Joe, 2016. "The End of Market Discipline? Investor Expectations of Implicit Government Guarantees," MPRA Paper 79700, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sebastian Schich & Oana Toader, 2017. "To Be or Not to Be a G-SIB: Does It Matter?," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 169-192.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Martin Indergand & Gabriela Hrasko, 2021. "Does the market believe in loss-absorbing bank debt?," Working Papers 2021-13, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; too big to fail; CreditEdge; CreditGrades;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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