IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/afc/wpaper/11-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cliométrie du chômage et des salaires en France, 1950-2008

Author

Listed:
  • Michel-Pierre Chelini

    (Professeur d’histoire économique contemporaine à l’Université d’Arras)

  • Georges Prat

    (Directeur de recherche au CNRS, EconomiX, Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense)

Abstract

From a macroeconomic perspective, this paper aims to represent the dynamics of the unemployment rate and of the variations of wages in France over the period of 1950-2008. On a theoretical level, the unemployment equation distinguishes a chronic factor characterized by an excess of real wages compared to the labor productivity gains, a conjunctural factor characterized by the difference between the growth rate of the production and its long term value, and a structural factor including frictional, technological and voluntary components of the unemployment. The wages' variations are classically supposed to depend on productivity gains and inflation. On the empirical level, estimations are made simultaneously for the unemployment and wages with a Space-State model based on the Kalman filter methodology. This econometric approach allows for the introduction of time varying parameters. In accordance with these hypotheses, the unemployment rate is shown to depend on the excess of the real hourly labor cost over the marginal productivity of labor (with a time varying sensibility), on the growth rate of the real GDP and on a structural component, which is about 4%. The chronic unemployment rate appeared in the beginning of the 1970s; at this time, it progressively increases to reach a maximum of 7.8% in 1994, then decreases to fall below 2% in 2008. The conjunctural component is in conformity with the Okun's law since it links negatively the unemployment rate with the production growth rate, this factor seeming to develop particularly after the 1973 oil shock. In addition, the results indicate a delayed influence of the above-mentioned factors on the unemployment, with an average period of influence of 3.3 years. Concerning wages, as expected, the rate of change in nominal wages is shown to be determined by the growth rate in productivity and by the inflation rate as well. The wages' elasticity with respect to price level appears to be time -varying, with a value close to
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Michel-Pierre Chelini & Georges Prat, 2011. "Cliométrie du chômage et des salaires en France, 1950-2008," Working Papers 11-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:11-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cliometrie.org/images/wp/AFC_WP_08-2011.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, December.
    2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pierre Blanchard & Patrick Sevestre, 1989. "L'indexation des salaires : quelle rupture en 1982 ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 87(1), pages 67-74.
    4. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, November.
    5. Stéphanie Guichard & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2000. "The Wage Curve: The Lessons of an Estimation Over a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 2000-21, CEPII research center.
    6. Azariadis, Costas, 1975. "Implicit Contracts and Underemployment Equilibria," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1183-1202, December.
    7. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
    8. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 53-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Pierre Chelini & Georges Prat, 2013. "Cliométrie du modèle WS," Working Papers 2013-8, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-008 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:201408 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michel-Pierre Chelini & Georges Prat, 2013. "Cliométrie du modèle WS-PS en France," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-17, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Michel-Pierre Chélini & Georges Prat, 2019. "Verständnis der langfristigen Dynamik von Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhnen in Frankreich [Understanding the Long Run Dynamics of French Unemployment and Wages]," Post-Print hal-04400810, HAL.
    7. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," NBER Working Papers 11338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2005. "The Last Word on the Wage Curve?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 421-450, July.
    9. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    10. Michel-Pierre Chélini & Georges Prat, 2013. "Cliométrie du modèle WS-PS en France," Working Papers hal-04141200, HAL.
    11. Georges Prat, 2013. "Rueff et l'analyse du chômage: Quels heritages?," Working Papers 2013-26, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    12. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:26 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Unemployment And Hours Of Work: The North Atlantic Divide Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 1-36, February.
    16. Baltagi, Badi H. & Rokicki, Bartlomiej, 2013. "The Polish Wage Curve: Micro Panel Data Analysis Based on the Polish Labor Force Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 7812, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Lanot, Gauthier & Walker, Ian, 1998. "The union/non-union wage differential: An application of semi-parametric methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 327-349, June.
    18. Blanchflower, David G. & Oswald, Andrew J., 2006. "The Wage Curve: An Entry Written for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition," IZA Discussion Papers 2138, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Appleton, Simon & Song, Lina & Xia, Qingjie, 2005. "Has China crossed the river? The evolution of wage structure in urban China during reform and retrenchment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-663, December.
    20. Renaud Crassous & Jean Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous structural change and climate targets," Post-Print halshs-00009335, HAL.
    21. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2009. "New evidence on the dynamic wage curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 47-51, January.
    22. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    23. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    24. Anil Markandya & Mikel González- Eguino & Marta Escapa, 2012. "Environmental fiscal reform and unemployment in Spain," Chapters, in: Larry Kreiser & Ana Yábar Sterling & Pedro Herrera & Janet E. Milne & Hope Ashiabor (ed.), Carbon Pricing, Growth and the Environment, chapter 1, pages 3-16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Baltagi, Badi H. & Rokicki, Bartlomiej, 2014. "The spatial Polish wage curve with gender effects: Evidence from the Polish Labor Survey," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 36-47.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:11-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/afcccea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.