IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141194.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sessi Tokpavi

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We introduce in this paper a testing approach that allows checking whether two financial institutions are systemically equivalent, with systemic risk measured by CoVaR (Adrian and Brunnermeier, 2011). The test compares the difference in CoVaR forecasts for two financial institutions via a suitable loss function that has an economic content. Our testing approach differs from those in the literature in the sense that it is conditional, and helps evaluating in a forward-looking manner, the extent to which statistically significant differences in CoVaR forecasts can be attributed to lag values of market state variables. Moreover, the test can be used to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that the test has desirable small sample properties. With an application on a sample including 70 large U.S. financial institutions, our conditional test using market state variables such as VIX and various yield spreads, reveals more (resp. less) heterogeneity in the systemic profiles of these institutions compared to its unconditional version, in crisis (resp. non-crisis) period. It also emerges that the systemic ranking provided by our testing approach is a good forecast of a financial institution's sensitivity to a crisis. This is in contrast to the ranking obtained directly using CoVaR forecasts which has less predictive power because of estimation uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," Working Papers hal-04141194, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141194
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141194/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    2. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    3. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    4. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    8. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-27, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2021. "Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 330-365.
    3. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Systemic risk in international stock markets: Role of the oil market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-619.
    4. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    5. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    6. Martin Eling & David Antonius Pankoke, 2016. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector: A Review and Directions for Future Research," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 249-284, September.
    7. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    8. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    10. Gang-Jin Wang & Chi Xie & Kaijian He & H. Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Extreme risk spillover network: application to financial institutions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 1417-1433, September.
    11. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    12. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    13. Edward M. H. Lin & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 579-603, March.
    14. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Katerina Ivanov & James Schulte & Weidong Tian & Kevin Tseng, 2021. "An Equilibrium-Based Measure of Systemic Risk," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, September.
    16. Samar K. Guharay & Gaurav S. Thakur & Fred J. Goodman & Scott L. Rosen & Daniel Houser, 2016. "Integrated data-driven analytics to identify instability signatures in nonstationary financial time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(18), pages 1678-1694, April.
    17. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Sirotko-Sibirskaya, Natalia & Wang, Weining, 2014. "TENET: Tail-Event driven NETwork risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
    19. Shuting Liu & Qifa Xu & Cuixia Jiang, 2021. "Systemic risk of China’s commercial banks during financial turmoils in 2010-2020: A MIDAS-QR based CoVaR approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(18), pages 1600-1609, October.
    20. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.