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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
  • Mr. Juan Zalduendo
  • Ms. Manuela Goretti
  • Mr. Bikas Joshi
  • Mr. Alun H. Thomas

Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Juan Zalduendo & Ms. Manuela Goretti & Mr. Bikas Joshi & Mr. Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 2007/070, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/070
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasemin Bal Gunduz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2009/263, International Monetary Fund.
    2. ., 2016. "Introduction and overview: the purposes and operations of the IMF," Chapters, in: The International Monetary Fund, chapter 1, pages 1-18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Short-term IMF Engagement in Low-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 30-49.
    4. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 2007/152, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "IMF Lending in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis," Development Working Papers 305, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    6. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2010. "The Episodic and Unpredictable Nature of IMF Lending: An Empirical Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1280-1301, October.

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