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The Leading Premium

Author

Listed:
  • M. Max Croce
  • Tatyana Marchuk
  • Christian Schlag

Abstract

In this paper, we compute conditional measures of lead-lag relationships between GDP growth and industry-level cash-flow growth in the US. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 4% higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time series and cross sectional tests, we estimate an annual timing premium ranging from 1.5% to 2%. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Max Croce & Tatyana Marchuk & Christian Schlag, 2019. "The Leading Premium," NBER Working Papers 25633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25633
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    2. Chava, Sudheer & Hsu, Alex & Zeng, Linghang, 2020. "Does history repeat itself? Business cycle and industry returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 201-218.
    3. Harvey, Campbell R. & Liu, Yan, 2021. "Lucky factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 413-435.
    4. Boubaker, Sabri & Li, Bo & Liu, Zhenya & Zhang, Yifan, 2021. "Decomposing anomalies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Ana Monteiro & Nuno Silva & Helder Sebastião, 2023. "Industry return lead-lag relationships between the US and other major countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-48, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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