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Institutional Investor Sentiment and Market Returns: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ralph Yang-Cheng Lu

    (Department of Finance at Ming-Chuan University , Taipei, Taiwan (ROC).)

  • Hsiu-Chuan Lee

    (Department of Finance at Ming-Chuan University , Taipei, Taiwan (ROC). Corresponding author.)

  • Peter Chiu

    (Taiwan Futures Exchange, Taipei, Taiwan.)

Abstract

This study explores the dynamic relationship between the sentiment of institutional investors and market returns in the futures market. Using data from the Taiwan futures market, the empirical results show that the dynamic relationship between the sentiment of foreign institutional investors and the futures returns is much stronger than that of the sentiment of domestic institutional investors and the futures returns. Our empirical results also display that the sentiment of foreign institutional investors Granger-causes the sentiment of domestic institutional investors, but not vice versa. Finally, the sentiment of foreign institutional investors has a larger effect on subsequent market returns and market states than that of the sentiment of domestic institutional investors. Overall, our empirical results suggest that the relationship among the institutional investor sentiment, market returns, as well as market conditions in the Taiwan futures market is dominated by the sentiment of foreign institutional investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralph Yang-Cheng Lu & Hsiu-Chuan Lee & Peter Chiu, 2014. "Institutional Investor Sentiment and Market Returns: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 140-167, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:4:p:140-167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ya-Wen Lai, 2023. "Impact of futures’ trader types on stock market quality: evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 417-436, June.
    2. Tingqiang Chen & Binqing Xiao & Haifei Liu, 2018. "Credit Risk Contagion in an Evolving Network Model Integrating Spillover Effects and Behavioral Interventions," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-16, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutional Investor Sentiment; Foreign Investors; Domestic Investors; Futures Returns; Market States.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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