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Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China

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  • Zhang, Chengsi
  • Murasawa, Yasutomo

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips curve implies that the output gap, the deviation of the actual output from its natural level due to nominal rigidities, drives the dynamics of inflation relative to expected inflation and lagged inflation. This paper exploits the empirical success of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in explaining China's inflation dynamics with a new measure of the output gap. We estimate the output gap using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition method, based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among inflation, money, and real output in China. The empirical results using quarterly data spanning 1979–2010 show that the new measure of the output gap outperforms the traditional measures in fitting the New Keynesian Phillips curve. This result provides useful insights for inflation dynamics and monetary policy analysis in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2462-2468
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.07.003
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    1. Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Aryo Sasongko & Richard I. Yusan, 2023. "Money velocity, digital currency, and inflation dynamics," Working Papers 2023-01, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2024. "Regional heterogeneity and the provincial Phillips curve in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1036-1044.
    3. Nurudeen Abu, 2019. "Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: A Re-examination of the Phillips Curve and its Stability in Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    4. Jana Budova & Veronika Sulikova & Marianna Sinicakova, 2023. "When Inflation Again Matters: Do Domestic and Global Output Gaps Determine Inflation in the EU?," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 25(63), pages 575-575, April.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Oros, Cornel & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2014. "Revisiting the inflation–output gap relationship for France using a wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 464-475.
    7. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Sardor Sadykov, 2018. "Modelling Of Inflationary Processes In Uzbekistan On The Basis Of The New Keynesian Philips Curve," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 14(2), pages 72-99.
    9. Saman, Corina & Pauna, Bianca, 2013. "New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 159-171, June.
    10. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
    11. Carsten A. Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2016. "Wage and Price Dynamics in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1109-1127, August.
    12. Xu, Qifa & Niu, Xufeng & Jiang, Cuixia & Huang, Xue, 2015. "The Phillips curve in the US: A nonlinear quantile regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 186-197.
    13. Bayari, Celal, 2020. "The Neoliberal Globalization Link to the Belt and Road Initiative: The State and State-Owned-Enterprises in China [alternative title: Bilateral and Multilateral Dualities of the Chinese State in the C," MPRA Paper 104471, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jul 2020.
    14. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Paul G. Egan & Anthony J. Leddin, 2016. "Examining Monetary Policy Transmission in the People's Republic of China–Structural Change Models with a Monetary Policy Index," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 74-110, March.
    16. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_003 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output gap; NKPC; Inflation; Bayesian estimator; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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