IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/63527.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling inflation dynamics in a conflict economy

Author

Listed:
  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

Research Problem: The primary purpose of the paper is to set up a macroeconomic model that depict domestic inflation dynamics in a conflict economy impeded by parallel market for foreign exchange and internal political conflict. Research methodology: To investigate domestic inflation sensitivity to macro variables time-varying coefficient estimation approach employed on monthly data from Sudan during the period from January 2008 to December2013. Results: While domestic money growth (government spending) is the main driver of domestic inflation,the increasing role of parallel market for foreign exchange and imported inflation on domestic inflation reveal increasing sensitivity of the economy to external shocks. Also indicated that our model based estimates of domestic inflation rate is about 22% above the officially announced inflation rate. Recommendations: To control domestic inflation it is essential to control growth in domestic money creation and adopt more flexible official foreign exchange rate that enables inflation trageting policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Onour, Ibrahim, 2015. "Modeling inflation dynamics in a conflict economy," MPRA Paper 63527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/63527/1/MPRA_paper_63527.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Naveen Chandra & Ellis W. Tallman, 1997. "Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    2. Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti & Mr. Yuan Xiao, 2001. "Inflation Dynamics in Madagascar, 1971-2000," IMF Working Papers 2001/168, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chhibber, Ajay & Cottani, Joaquin & Firuzabadi, Reza & Walton, Michael, 1989. "Inflation, price controls, and fiscal adjustment in Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 192, The World Bank.
    4. Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996. "The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9606, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Thoma, Mark A & Gray, Jo Anna, 1998. "Financial Market Variables Do Not Predict Real Activity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(4), pages 522-539, October.
    6. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    7. Anselm London, 1989. "Money, Inflation and Adjustment Policy in Africa: Some Further Evidence," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 1(1), pages 87-111.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xin-Zhou Qi & Zhong Ning & Meng Qin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 779-799, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Adebayo Adebiyi, 2007. "Does Money Tell Us Anything About Inflation In Nigeria?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 52(01), pages 117-134.
    2. Feridun, M. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2006. "Forecasting Inflation in Developing Economies: The Case of Nigeria, 1986-1998," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 55-84.
    3. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Mlamka, Bonaventura, 2022. "Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank’s Credit Dynamics in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    4. Naveen Chandra & Ellis W. Tallman, 1997. "Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. M. O. Odedokun, 1997. "Dynamics of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of foreign inflation, official and parallel market exchange rates, and monetary growth," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 395-402.
    6. Simatele, Munacinga C H, 2004. "Financial sector reforms and monetary policy reforms in Zambia," MPRA Paper 21575, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Katherine Avram, 1998. "Implications Of New Payments Technology For Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 17(4), pages 54-68, December.
    8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2961 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2008. "An Eclectic Causality Model for Income Growth: Evidence from Greece," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 31-46.
    12. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "A “Working” Solution To The Question Of Nominal Gdp Targeting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 508-534, April.
    13. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 111-153.
    14. Afanasyeva, Elena, 2012. "Atypical Behavior of Money and Credit: Evidence From Conditional Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 65405, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    16. Mr. Oral Williams & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji, 2004. "Inflation Dynamics in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2004/029, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Gideon O. Fadiran & Adebisi Edun, 2013. "An Overview of the Repo Rate in an Inflation Targeting Economy," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 621-635.
    18. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    19. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Ackon, Kwabena Meneabe, 2015. "US Domestic Money, Output, Inflation and Unemployment," MPRA Paper 100740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Aksoy, Yunus & Piskorski, Tomasz, 2006. "U.S. domestic money, inflation and output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 183-197, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; parallel market; money growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.