IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_3754.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Quantity Theory of Money and Friedmanian Monetary Policy: An Empirical Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Hillinger
  • Bernd Süssmuth
  • Marco Sunder

Abstract

We introduce an approach for the empirical study of the quantity theory of money (QTM) that is novel both with respect to the specific steps taken as well as the general methodology employed. Empirical studies of the QTM have focused directly on the relationship between the rate of change of the money stock and inflation. We believe that this is an inferior starting point for several reasons and focus instead on the Cambridge form of the QTM. We find that the coefficient k fluctuates strongly in the short run, but has a low and steady rate of change in the long run, which makes the QTM a useful instrument for the long-run control of inflation. An important finding that contradicts all of the previous literature is that the QTM holds for low inflation as well as for high inflation. We discuss how our findings relate to monetarism generally and propose an adaption of McCallum’s rule for a Friedmanian monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2012. "The Quantity Theory of Money and Friedmanian Monetary Policy: An Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 3754, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp3754.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hillinger, Claude, 2008. "Measuring Real Value and Inflation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    2. Mccallum, Bennet T., 1988. "Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 173-203, January.
    3. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crises and Asymmetric Policy Responses – An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 382-403, March.
    4. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-1014, December.
    6. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    7. Christopher A. Sims, 2010. "But Economics Is Not an Experimental Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 59-68, Spring.
    8. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 84(Q2), pages 32-43.
    9. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1988. "Is money irrelevant?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 3-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gallegati, Marco & Giri, Federico & Fratianni, Michele, 2019. "Money growth and inflation: International historical evidence on high inflation episodes for developed countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland.
    4. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Long-run relations between money, prices and output: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 20265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Claude Hillinger & Bernd Süssmuth & Marco Sunder, 2015. "The Quantity Theory of Money: Valid Only for High and Medium Inflation?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 315-329.
    6. repec:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:423-453 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Basco, Emiliano & D'Amato, Laura & Garegnani, Lorena, 2009. "Understanding the money-prices relationship under low and high inflation regimes: Argentina 1977-2006," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1182-1203, November.
    8. João Valle e Azevedo, 2010. "Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates," Working Papers w201024, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2014. "Is Inflation always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 14, pages 357-382, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Fisher, Mark, 2009. "Inflation and monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1221-1241, November.
    11. Jens R. Clausen & Juergen B. Donges, 2001. "European Monetary Policy: The Ongoing Debate on Conceptual Issues," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(10), pages 1309-1326, November.
    12. Asongu, Simplice A., 2014. "A note on the long-run neutrality of monetary policy: new empirics," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 3(1), pages 1-6.
    13. John Thornton, 2008. "Money, Output And Inflation In African Economies1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(3), pages 356-366, September.
    14. Rizki E. Wimanda, 2014. "Threshold effects of exchange rate depreciation and money growth on inflation: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 196 - 215, March.
    15. repec:ptu:bdpart:a201011 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    17. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-63.
    18. Rik Hafer, 2001. "What remains of monetarism?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 86(Q4), pages 13-33.
    19. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    20. Han Gao & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2020. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money Reloaded," Working Papers 774, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 737-760, June.
    22. Simplice Asongu, 2014. "How Would Monetary Policy Matter In The Proposed African Monetary Unions? Evidence From Output And Prices," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 34-63.
    23. N. Kundan Kishor & Levis A. Kochin, 2007. "The Success Of The Fed And The Death Of Monetarism," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 56-70, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambridge equation; Friedman's k rule; monetarism; quantity theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.