IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/safewp/371.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The leading premium

Author

Listed:
  • Croce, Mariano M.
  • Marchuk, Tatyana
  • Schlag, Christian

Abstract

In this paper, we consider conditional measures of lead-lag relationships between aggregate growth and industry-level cash-flow growth in the US. Our results show that firms in leading industries pay an average annualized return 3.6% higher than that of firms in lagging industries. Using both time series and cross sectional tests, we estimate an annual pure timing premium ranging from 1.2% to 1.7%. This finding can be rationalized in a model in which (a) agents price growth news shocks, and (b) leading industries provide valuable resolution of uncertainty about the growth prospects of lagging industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Croce, Mariano M. & Marchuk, Tatyana & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "The leading premium," SAFE Working Paper Series 371, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:371
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2692892
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/266690/1/1827023392.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.2692892?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-1214, December.
    2. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    3. Guanhao Feng & Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Taming the Factor Zoo: A Test of New Factors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(3), pages 1327-1370, June.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    5. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    6. Michael Gofman & Gill Segal & Youchang Wu & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Production Networks and Stock Returns: The Role of Vertical Creative Destruction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(12), pages 5856-5905.
    7. Jules van Binsbergen & Michael Brandt & Ralph Koijen, 2012. "On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1596-1618, June.
    8. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    9. Andrew J. Patton & Michela Verardo, 2012. "Does Beta Move with News? Firm-Specific Information Flows and Learning about Profitability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2789-2839.
    10. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
    11. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2014. "Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 675-718, April.
    12. Hengjie Ai & Ravi Bansal, 2018. "Risk Preferences and the Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1383-1430, July.
    13. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    15. Albuquerque, Rui & Miao, Jianjun, 2014. "Advance information and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 236-275.
    16. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2012. "Size, value, and momentum in international stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 457-472.
    18. Acharya, Viral & Almeida, Heitor & Ippolito, Filippo & Perez, Ander, 2014. "Credit lines as monitored liquidity insurance: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 287-319.
    19. Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October.
    20. Bernard Herskovic, 2018. "Networks in Production: Asset Pricing Implications," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1785-1818, August.
    21. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    23. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini, 2008. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1977-2011, August.
    24. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    25. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    26. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    27. Yueran Ma, 2019. "Nonfinancial Firms as Cross‐Market Arbitrageurs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 3041-3087, December.
    28. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    29. Bernard Herskovic & Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4097-4162.
    30. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "A Comparison of New Factor Models," Working Paper Series 2015-05, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    31. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Kewei Hou, 2007. "Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1113-1138.
    33. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    34. Savor, Pavel & Wilson, Mungo, 2013. "How Much Do Investors Care About Macroeconomic Risk? Evidence from Scheduled Economic Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 343-375, April.
    35. Stefano Giglio & Dacheng Xiu & Dake Zhang, 2021. "Test Assets and Weak Factors," NBER Working Papers 29002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, August.
    37. Hengjie Ai & Mariano Max Croce & Anthony M Diercks & Kai Li, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2423-2467.
    38. Croce, Mariano & Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Diercks, Anthony, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    40. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    42. Pavel Savor & Mungo Wilson, 2016. "Earnings Announcements and Systematic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 83-138, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Max Croce & Tatyana Marchuk & Christian Schlag, 2019. "The Leading Premium," NBER Working Papers 25633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Croce, Mariano & Schlag, Christian & Marchuk, Tatyana, 2018. "The Leading Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 12631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Tatyana Marchuk & Christian Schlag & Mariano Croce, 2017. "The Leading Premium," 2017 Meeting Papers 1251, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Chava, Sudheer & Hsu, Alex & Zeng, Linghang, 2020. "Does history repeat itself? Business cycle and industry returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 201-218.
    5. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.
    6. Lee, Charles M.C. & Sun, Stephen Teng & Wang, Rongfei & Zhang, Ran, 2019. "Technological links and predictable returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 76-96.
    7. Yu, Miao & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2024. "Network centrality, information diffusion and asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Lin, Qi, 2022. "Understanding idiosyncratic momentum in the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
    10. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    11. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2012. "Do industries matter in explaining stock returns and asset-pricing anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 355-370.
    12. Bandi, Federico M. & Chaudhuri, Shomesh E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2021. "Spectral factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 214-238.
    13. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    14. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    15. Cujean, Julien & Andrei, Daniel & Fournier, Mathieu, 2019. "The Low-Minus-High Portfolio and the Factor Zoo," CEPR Discussion Papers 14153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2017. "Firm size, economic risks, and the cross-section of international stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 110-126.
    17. Schlag, Christian & Semenischev, Michael & Thimme, Julian, 2020. "Predictability and the cross-section of expected returns: A challenge for asset pricing models," SAFE Working Paper Series 289, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    18. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    19. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    20. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csafede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.