IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/02-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Zhiwei Zhang

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp02-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    3. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January.
    4. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    5. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    6. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    7. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    9. John V. Duca, 1999. "What credit market indicators tell us," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 2-13.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    13. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    14. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    15. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    16. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    17. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    18. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    19. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    21. Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2001. "Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity: An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components," IMF Working Papers 2001/158, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
    23. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    24. Cornell, Bradford & Green, Kevin, 1991. "The Investment Performance of Low-Grade Bond Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 29-48, March.
    25. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    26. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    27. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 541-570, May.
    2. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 313, European Central Bank.
    3. George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2008. "Do behavioral biases adversely affect the macro-economy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
    5. Chebbi TAREK, 2008. "Rating And Other Factors Explaining The Corporate Credit Spread: Empirical Evidence From Tunisian Bond Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    6. Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci & Emilie Alberola, 2010. "The EUA-sCER Spread: Compliance Strategies and Arbitrage in the European Carbon Market," Post-Print halshs-00458991, HAL.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ms. Sonja Keller & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2010. "International Pricing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt: Does the Corporate Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2010/026, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    2. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    3. Gross, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
    4. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    5. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.
    6. Jardet, Caroline, 2004. "Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
    7. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, December.
    9. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    10. Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Franck Sédillot, 2001. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activité économique future ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 147(1), pages 141-157.
    12. Long Chen & Lu Zhang, 2009. "The stock market and aggregate employment," NBER Working Papers 15219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    14. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
    15. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    16. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    17. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Other publications TiSEM f5164bb2-6597-48c4-8b44-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Discussion Paper 2003-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
    20. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Monetary and financial indicators; Transmission of monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.