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Forecasting turning points in tourism growth

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  • Wan, Shui Ki
  • Song, Haiyan

Abstract

Tourism demand exhibits growth cycles, and it is important to forecast turning points in these growth cycles to minimise risks to destination management. This study estimates logistic models of Hong Kong tourism demand, which are then used to generate both short- and long-term forecasts of tourism growth. The performance of the models is evaluated using the quadratic probability score and hit rates. The results show that the ways in which this information is used are crucial to the models’ predictive power. Further, we investigate whether combining probability forecasts can improve predictive accuracy, and find that combination approaches, especially nonlinear combination approaches, are sensitive to the quality of forecasts in the pool. In addition, model screening can improve forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:156-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2018.07.010
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    3. Li, Cheng & Ge, Peng & Liu, Zhusheng & Zheng, Weimin, 2020. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using denoising and potential factors," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019. "Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 393-409.
    5. Yamaka, Woraphon & Zhang, Xuefeng & Maneejuk, Paravee & Ramos, Vicente, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk: A Markov switching approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Yi-Chung Hu, 2023. "Tourism combination forecasting using a dynamic weighting strategy with change-point analysis," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 2357-2374, July.
    7. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein, 2022. "‘Modelling’ UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Han Liu & Yongjing Wang & Haiyan Song & Ying Liu, 2023. "Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1302-1327, August.
    9. Haodong Sun & Yang Yang & Yanyan Chen & Xiaoming Liu & Jiachen Wang, 2023. "Tourism demand forecasting of multi-attractions with spatiotemporal grid: a convolutional block attention module model," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 205-233, June.
    10. Andreas Marcus Gohs, 2022. "Forecasting Market Diffusion of Innovative Battery-Electric and Conventional Vehicles in Germany under Model Uncertainty," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202209, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Ji Wu & Xian Cheng & Stephen Shaoyi Liao, 2020. "Tourism forecast combination using the stochastic frontier analysis technique," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(7), pages 1086-1107, November.
    12. Jia Yang & Yangang Fang & Xianyu Zhang, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Causal Analysis of Rural Tourism Popularity in Jilin Province Based on Multiple Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, April.
    13. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    14. Yuruixian Zhang & Wei Chong Choo & Yuhanis Abdul Aziz & Choy Leong Yee & Jen Sim Ho, 2022. "Go Wild for a While? A Bibliometric Analysis of Two Themes in Tourism Demand Forecasting from 1980 to 2021: Current Status and Development," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-38, July.
    15. Llano, Carlos & Pardo, Juan & Pérez-Balsalobre, Santiago & Pérez, Julián, 2023. "Estimating multicountry tourism flows by transport mode," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    16. Zhang, Yishuo & Li, Gang & Muskat, Birgit & Law, Rob & Yang, Yating, 2020. "Group pooling for deep tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.

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