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Searching for the Fed’s reaction function

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  • Katrin Wölfel

    (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Christoph S. Weber

    (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

Abstract

There is still some doubt about those economic variables that really matter for the Fed’s decisions. In comparison with other estimations, this study uses the approach of Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The estimations show that over the long-run inflation, unemployment rates and long-term interest rates are the crucial variables in explaining the Federal Funds Rate. In the other two estimation samples, also the fiscal deficit and monetary aggregates were of relevance. There is also evidence for interest rate smoothing. In addition, we account for parameter instability by combining BMA with time-varying coefficient (TVC) modelling. We find strong evidence for structural breaks. Finally, a model average is constructed via an TVC-BMA approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Wölfel & Christoph S. Weber, 2017. "Searching for the Fed’s reaction function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 191-227, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1076-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-016-1076-6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fed; Monetary policy reaction functions; Model uncertainty; Bayesian model averaging; Parameter instability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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