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Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?

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  • Sharon Kozicki

Abstract

Monetary policy is typically undertaken with an eye to achieving a select few objectives in the long run. The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy to promote two long-run goals: price stability and sustainable economic growth. In many other countries, central banks have a single long-run goal defined in terms of an inflation target. Yet while central banks have narrowly defined long-run goals, most monitor a wide range of economic indicators.> Why do central banks collect and analyze so many indicators? Kozicki presents multicountry empirical evidence to assess whether any single indicator reliably predicts inflation. If such an indicator exists, it would need to perform adequately under a wide variety of economic conditions and changing economic structures, because no country faces an unchanging economic environment. One way to test for such robust performance is to examine the value of indicators across a variety of countries experiencing different economic conditions, financial structures, policy shifts, and so forth.> Kozicki first discusses why several widely used indicators might predict inflation. She explains how the predictive performance of these indicators can be compared and reports empirical results for 11 developed economies, including the United States. She concludes that while monitoring the change in GDP growth is useful on average across countries, no single economic indicator is always reliable. This evidence supports an approach to policymaking that involves monitoring a wide range of economic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q III), pages 5-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2001:i:qiii:p:5-42:n:v.86no.3
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    1. David Longworth, 2003. "Money in the Bank (of Canada)," Technical Reports 93, Bank of Canada.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    3. Michael Berlemann & Forrest Nelson, 2005. "Forecasting Inflation via Experimental Stock Markets Some Results from Pilot Markets," ifo Working Paper Series 10, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    5. Henry Muganza Ngongo, 2015. "Les indicateus avancés de l'inflation en RDCongo," Post-Print hal-01202369, HAL.
    6. Henry Ngongo, 2015. "Les indicateus avanc\'es de l'inflation en RDCongo," Papers 1509.06504, arXiv.org.

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