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Adaptive learning with term structure information

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  • Vázquez, Jesús
  • Aguilar, Pablo

Abstract

This paper builds on the Euler-equation approach to adaptive learning (AL) by considering term structure information in addition to macroeconomic data. We consider a medium-scale DSGE model where the term structure expectations hypothesis is imposed. The model estimated under AL using term structure information has a better fit. Estimation results show that term structure provides useful real-time information in forecasting macroeconomic variables above and beyond that provided by revised macroeconomic data. In particular, term structure information greatly improves the matching of AL expectations to the corresponding forecasts reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which further contributes to the empirical validity of AL.

Suggested Citation

  • Vázquez, Jesús & Aguilar, Pablo, 2021. "Adaptive learning with term structure information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:134:y:2021:i:c:s0014292121000428
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103689
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    3. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
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    6. Rojo-Suárez, Javier & Alonso-Conde, Ana B., 2024. "The role of shifts in the effective tax rate on the cost of equity," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 61-72.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive learning; Term structure information; SPF forecasts; Medium-scale DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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