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Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico
[Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]

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  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the lagged FSI has an explanatory power over currency crises in a selection of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67741
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; foreign exchange; fiscal sustainability; probit model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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