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Forecasting with Monetary Aggregates: Recent Evidence for the United States

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  • Elger, Thomas
  • Jones, Barry E.
  • Nilsson, Birger

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  • Elger, Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Nilsson, Birger, 2006. "Forecasting with Monetary Aggregates: Recent Evidence for the United States," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 428-446.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:58:y:2006:i:5-6:p:428-446
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    1. Binner, Jane M. & Elger, C. Thomas & Nilsson, Birger & Tepper, Jonathan A., 2006. "Predictable non-linearities in U.S. inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 323-328, December.
    2. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2011. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 3, pages 85-105, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Carlson, John B. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Rasche, Robert H., 2000. "Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 345-383, October.
    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    6. Miyao, Ryuzo, 1996. "Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 365-380, August.
    7. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    8. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-283, May.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. Duca, John V, 2000. "Financial Technology Shocks and the Case of the Missing M2," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 820-839, November.
    12. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    13. Fisher, Douglas & Fleissig, Adrian R, 1997. "Monetary Aggregation and the Demand for Assets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 458-475, November.
    14. Richard G. Anderson & Jason J. Buol, 2005. "Revisions to user costs for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis monetary services indices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 735-750.
    15. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    17. repec:bla:econom:v:70:y:2003:i:277:p:99-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. William A. Barnett, 2000. "New Indices of Money Supply and the Flexible Laurent Demand System," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 325-359, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stracca, Livio, 2001. "Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 79, European Central Bank.
    21. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 1996. "Monetary aggregation theory and statistical index numbers," Working Papers 1996-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry Z. Cynamon & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "U.S. Narrow Money for the Twenty-First Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 142-152, January.
    23. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    24. Dutkowsky, Donald H & Cynamon, Barry Z, 2003. "Sweep Programs: The Fall of M1 and Rebirth of the Medium of Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 263-279, April.
    25. VanHoose, David D. & Humphrey, David B., 2001. "Sweep accounts, reserve management, and interest rate volatility1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 387-404.
    26. Lee A. Craig & Douglas Fisher, 1997. "The Demand for Money," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Integration of the European Economy, 1850–1913, chapter 7, pages 160-186, Palgrave Macmillan.
    27. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
    28. Livio Stracca, 2004. "Does Liquidity Matter? Properties of a Divisia Monetary Aggregate in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 309-331, July.
    29. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    30. Leigh Drake & Terence C. Mills, 2005. "A New Empirically Weighted Monetary Aggregate for the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 138-157, January.
    31. Jones, Barry E. & Dutkowsky, Donald H. & Elger, Thomas, 2005. "Sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 483-508, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Alicia M. Gazely, 2011. "Forecasting The Uk/Us Exchange Rate With Divisia Monetary Models And Neural Networks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 127-152, February.
    2. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones, 2011. "A comprehensive revision of the U.S. monetary services (divisia) indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 325-360.
    3. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
    4. Chin-Hong, Puah & Lee-Chea, Hiew, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Weighted Monetary Aggregates and Money Demand in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 31731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jones, Barry E. & Fleissig, Adrian R. & Elger, Thomas & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2008. "Retail sweep programs and monetary asset substitution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 159-163, April.
    6. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Elvira Takli, 2013. "Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1101-1115.
    7. Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Edgerton, David L. & Binner, Jane M., 2008. "A Note On The Optimal Level Of Monetary Aggregation In The United Kingdom," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 117-131, February.
    8. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    9. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.

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