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The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach

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  • Seip, Knut Lehre
  • McNown, Robert

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  • Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2007. "The timing and accuracy of leading and lagging business cycle indicators: A new approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 277-287.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:2:p:277-287
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    2. J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    5. Leonall C. Andersen & Jerry L. Jordan, 1986. "Monetary and fiscal actions: a test of their relative importance in economic stabilization," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 29-44.
    6. Jane M. Binner & Stuart I. Wattam, 2003. "A new composite leading indicator of inflation for the UK: a Kalman filter approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 242-264.
    7. Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Palestrini, Antonio, 2003. "Financial fragility, patterns of firms' entry and exit and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-97, May.
    8. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.
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    Cited by:

    1. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator: Accuracy and Timing of a Parsimonious Forecasting Model," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Seip, Knut L., 2019. "Does tax reduction have an effect on gross domestic product? An empirical investigation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1128-1143.
    3. Joanna Martusewicz & Arkadiusz Wierzbic & Marcin Łukaszewicz, 2024. "Strategic Transformation and Sustainability: Unveiling the EFQM Model 2025," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
    6. Seip, Knut Lehre & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Does employees’ compensation vary with corporate profit?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 281-290.

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