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Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises: Exploring new Data and Tools

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  • António R. Antunes
  • Diana Bonfim
  • Nuno Monteiro
  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues

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Suggested Citation

  • António R. Antunes & Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises: Exploring new Data and Tools," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:bdpart:b201404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2011. "Quasi real time early warning indicators for costly asset price boom/bust cycles: A role for global liquidity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 520-533, September.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    6. Taylor, Alan M. & Schularick, Moritz & Jordà , Òscar, 2011. "When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 8678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    8. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
    9. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    10. Detken, Carsten & Weeken, Olaf & Alessi, Lucia & Bonfim, Diana & Boucinha, Miguel & Castro, Christian & Frontczak, Sebastian & Giordana, Gaston & Giese, Julia & Wildmann, Nadya & Kakes, Jan & Klaus, B, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 5, European Systemic Risk Board.
    11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    12. Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro, 2013. "The implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer: rules versus discretion," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    14. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
    16. Raymond Chaudron & Jakob de Haan, 2014. "Identifying and dating systemic banking crises using incidence and size of bank failures," DNB Working Papers 406, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999. "Monitoring banking sector fragility : a multivariate logit approach with an application to the 1996-97 banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2085, The World Bank.
    18. Carsten Detken & Olaf Weeken & Lucia Alessi & Diana Bonfim & Miguel M. Boucinha & Christian Castro & Sebastian Frontczak & Gaston Giordana & Julia Giese & Nadya Jahn & Jan Kakes & Benjamin Klaus & Jan, 2014. "Operationalising the countercyclical capital buffer: indicator selection, threshold identification and calibration options," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 05, European Systemic Risk Board.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mojmír Hampl and Tomáš Havránek, 2017. "Should monetary policy pay attention to house prices? The Czech National Bank’s approach," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 129-140, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Alessi, Lucia & Antunes, Antonio & Babecky, Jan & Baltussen, Simon & Behn, Markus & Bonfim, Diana & Bush, Oliver & Detken, Carsten & Frost, Jon & Guimaraes, Rodrigo & Havranek, Tomas & Joy, Mark & Kau, 2015. "Comparing different early warning systems: Results from a horse race competition among members of the Macro-prudential Research Network," MPRA Paper 62194, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marcin Pietrzak, 2021. "Can Financial Soundness Indicators Help Predict Financial Sector Distress?," IMF Working Papers 2021/197, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Domonkos Tomáš & Ostrihoň Filip & Šikulová Ivana & Širaňová Mária, 2017. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239(1), pages 32-52, February.
    5. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    6. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank.
    7. I. Made Suidarma & Yulia Indrawati & I. Gusti Nengah Darma Diatmika & I. Nyoman Anggaradana, 2017. "Financial System Vulnerability Indicators in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 299-306.
    8. Fabrizio Ferriani & Wanda Cornacchia & Paolo Farroni & Eliana Ferrara & Francesco Guarino & Francesco Pisanti, 2019. "An early warning system for less significant Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 480, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Tomáš Domonkos & Filip Ostrihoň & Ivana Šikulová & Maria Širaňová, 2016. "Analyzing macroeconomic imbalances in the EU," EcoMod2016 9660, EcoMod.

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