Forecast combination in the frequency domain
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniele Bianchi & Matthias Büchner & Tobias Hoogteijling & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Corrigendum: Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning [Bond risk premiums with machine learning]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 1090-1103.
- Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019.
"Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Antonio Gargano & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 75R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jul 2016.
- Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Gargano, Antonio, 2014. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Daniele Bianchi & Matthias Büchner & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning [Quadratic term structure models: Theory and evidence]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 1046-1089.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers No 9/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007.
"Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julien Cujean & Michael Hasler, 2017. "Why Does Return Predictability Concentrate in Bad Times?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2717-2758, December.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014.
"Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Martins, Manuel Mota Freitas & Verona, Fabio, 2021.
"Inflation dynamics and forecast: Frequency matters,"
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
8/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Manuel M. F. Martins & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Inflation Dynamics and Forecast: Frequency Matters," CEF.UP Working Papers 2101, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes & Fabio Verona, 2019.
"Assessing U.S. Aggregate Fluctuations Across Time and Frequencies,"
Working Paper
19-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian & Verona, Fabio, 2019. "Assessing U.S. aggregate fluctuations across time and frequencies," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2019, Bank of Finland.
- Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009.
"Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
- Chiara Scotti & S.Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & University of Maryland, 2006. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 387, Society for Computational Economics.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018.
"Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2016, Bank of Finland.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2017. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," CEF.UP Working Papers 1702, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 05, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
- Inske Pirschel & Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "Forecasting with large datasets: compressing information before, during or after the estimation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 573-596, September.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
"The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008.
"Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
- Campbell, John & Thompson, Samuel P., 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Scholarly Articles 2622619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_005 is not listed on IDEAS
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F, 1974.
"Band Spectrum Regression,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
- R. F. Engle, 1972. "Band Spectrum Regressions," Working papers 96, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_008 is not listed on IDEAS
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
- Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2024. "Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination: Applications to financial and economic indicators," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2024, Bank of Finland.
- Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023.
"Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Working Paper Series 2020-03, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8828, CESifo.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_006 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cotter, John & Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel & Potì, Valerio, 2023.
"Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing,"
Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
- John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor & Valerio Potì, 2020. "Commodity Futures Return Predictability and Intertemporal Asset Pricing," Working Papers 202011, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- John Cotter & Emmanuel Eyiah-Donkor & Valerio Potì, 2023. "Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing," Post-Print hal-04192933, HAL.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2021.
"Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 2119-2135, December.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2021.
"Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 2119-2135, December.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Research Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_007 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tsiakas, Ilias & Li, Jiahan & Zhang, Haibin, 2020.
"Equity premium prediction and the state of the economy,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 75-95.
- Ilias Tsiakas & Jiahan Li & Haibin Zhang, 2020. "Equity Premium Prediction and the State of the Economy," Working Paper series 20-16, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020.
"Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp677, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Mykola Babiak & Jozef Barunik, 2020. "Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns," Papers 2009.03394, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
- Stein, Tobias, 2024. "Forecasting the equity premium with frequency-decomposed technical indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 6-28.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
- Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
- Giovannelli, Alessandro & Massacci, Daniele & Soccorsi, Stefano, 2021.
"Forecasting stock returns with large dimensional factor models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 252-269.
- Alessandro Giovannelli & Daniele Massacci & Stefano Soccorsi, 2020. "Forecasting Stock Returns with Large Dimensional Factor Models," Working Papers 305661169, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
- Daniel de Almeida & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Luiz Koodi Hotta, 2025. "Out-of-Sample Predictability of the Equity Risk Premium," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
- Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
- Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023.
"Pockets of Predictability,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
- Timmermann, Allan & Farmer, Leland E. & Schmidt, Lawrence, 2018. "Pockets of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 12885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zhao, Albert Bo & Cheng, Tingting, 2022. "Stock return prediction: Stacking a variety of models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-317.
- Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016.
"Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors,"
Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers)
06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
- Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Neuhierl, Andreas & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2021. "Data snooping in equity premium prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 72-94.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2024.
"Predicting Bond Return Predictability,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(2), pages 931-951, February.
- Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
More about this item
Keywords
forecast combination; frequency domain; equity premium; GDP growth; Haar filter; wavelets;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2023-02-20 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2023-02-20 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:12023. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.