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An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines

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  • Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

This study assesses the usefulness of money for policy in the Philippines. The basic idea behind the use of monetary aggregates for policy is that observed fluctuations in money anticipate movements in the ultimate objective of monetary policy, such as inflation control. The stability of key empirical relationships, including the behavior of velocity and the presence of cointegrating relationships among money and variables of interest to policymakers are examined. In general, results indicate that the stability of the behavior of velocity and the presence of cointegrating relationships involving money and other variables of interest do not do much damage to the potential usefulness of money for policy. The ability of money to predict inflation is examined using Granger causality tests and an unrestricted VAR that examined the relative contribution of innovations in money to the variance of the forecast errors in inflation. In general, money’s ability to predict inflation is less clear-cut and seems to be dependent on the ordering and lag lengths of the variables used in the VAR and the definition of money used. *The author wishes to thank the sponsors and participants of the Asian Economic Panel Meeting held in March 2005 in Tokyo, Japan and Carlos C. Bautista for research assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2005. "An Assessment of the Usefulness of Money for Policy in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 200508, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:200508
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    File URL: http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/126/124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Maria Socorro Gochoco, 1993. "Are Money, Interest Rates, Output and the Exchange Rate Cointegrated? Implications for Monetary Targeting," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 91-101, June.
    3. Llanto, Gilberto M. & Intal, Ponciano Jr. S., 1998. "Financial Reform and Development in the Philippines, 1980-1997: Imperatives, Performance and Challenges," Discussion Papers DP 1998-02, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. repec:phd:pjdevt:jpd_1998_vol__xxv_no__1-a is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    6. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    7. Bautista, Romeo M., 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy in Philippine Development," Research Paper Series RPS 2003-01, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Bautista, Carlos C., 2003. "Estimates of output gaps in four Southeast Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 365-371, September.
    9. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    10. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 2001. "Is money still useful for policy in East Asia?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Assad L. Baunto & Christian Bordes & Samuel Maveyraud-Tricoire & Philippe Rous, 2011. "Money growth and velocity with structural breaks: Evidence from the Philippines," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00785395, HAL.
    2. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Charles Harvie & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2019. "Money Demand in a Dollarized Economy: Evidence from Laos PDR," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, Winter/Sp.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.

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