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Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices

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  • Lee, Dong Jin
  • Son, Jong Chil

Abstract

This paper introduces nonlinearity and a structural break to the US forward-looking Taylor rule with a stock price gap, thereby alleviating the robustness problem that the linear Taylor rule is sensitive to minor changes of the sample period since 1991. The path of the time-varying inflation coefficient shows that, unlike in the linear model, the Fed consistently responds to inflationary pressures in an aggressive manner even after 1991. The stock price coefficient stays positive since 1991. However, its time-varying pattern does not show active responses in the early periods of stock price hikes, which is counter to the view that the Fed has preemptively reacted to stock price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.018
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    Cited by:

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    2. baaziz, yosra, 2016. "Les règles de Taylor à l’épreuve de la révolution : cas de l’Égypte [The Taylor rule to the test of the revolution: the case of Egypt]," MPRA Paper 69779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yosra Baaziz, 2015. "Estimating Interest Rate Setting Behavior in Brazil: A LSTR Model Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-17, April.
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    5. Alessandro Piergallini, 2019. "Nonlinear policy behavior, multiple equilibria and debt-deflation attractors," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 563-580, April.
    6. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    7. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    8. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    9. Umit Bulut, 2023. "Measuring the impacts of monetary policy in Turkey: an extended structural vector autoregressive model with structural breaks," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 117-132, February.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina, 2015. "The behaviour of the bank lending channel when interest rates approach the zero lower bound: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
    11. ERDEM Ekrem & BULUT Umit & KOCAK Emrah, 2017. "Have Financial Stability Concerns Changed The Priority Of The Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey?," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, August.
    12. Nicholas Apergis, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Policy: New Evidence from a World Panel of Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 395-410, June.
    13. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2013. "Does crude oil price play an important role in explaining stock return behavior?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 159-168.
    14. Yosra Baaziz & Moez Labidi, 2016. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: An Essay in the Comparative Study on Egyptian and Tunisian Central Banks," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-18, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy rule; Nonlinear model; Stock market; Structural break; Time-varying coefficient;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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