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Measuring macroeconomic tail risk

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  • Marfè, Roberto
  • Pénasse, Julien

Abstract

This paper estimates consumption and GDP tail risk dynamics over the long run (1900–2020). Our predictive approach circumvents the scarcity of large macroeconomic crises by exploiting a rich information set covering 42 countries. This flexible approach does not require asset price information and can thus serve as a benchmark to evaluate the empirical validity of rare disaster models. Our estimates covary with asset prices and forecast future stock returns, in line with theory. A calibration disciplined by our estimates supports the prediction that macroeconomic tail risk drives the equity premium.

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  • Marfè, Roberto & Pénasse, Julien, 2024. "Measuring macroeconomic tail risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:156:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24000618
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103838
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare disasters; Equity premium; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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