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Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany

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  • Ulrich FRITSCHE
  • Vladimir KOUZINE

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  • Ulrich FRITSCHE & Vladimir KOUZINE, 2010. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," EcoMod2004 330600054, EcoMod.
    • Handle: RePEc:ekd:003306:330600054
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    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    3. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    4. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
    5. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Macroeconomics 0004005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    9. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    10. Döpke, Jörg & Langfeldt, Enno, 1995. "Zur Qualität von Konjunkturprognosen für Westdeutschland 1976-1994," Kiel Discussion Papers 247, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Michael J. Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
    12. Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Predicting Germany's recessions with leading indicators: Evidence from probit models," Kiel Working Papers 944, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Heilemann Ullrich & Münch Heinz Josef, 1999. "Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 219(5-6), pages 632-656, October.
    14. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Heilemann, Ullrich & Münch, Heinz Josef, 1999. "Classification of west german business cycles," Technical Reports 1999,11, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
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