IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v90y2023ics1057521923003447.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The crucial role of the five-year Treasury in the US yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yu-Lun

Abstract

This paper analyzes the connectedness and spillover transmission mechanism in the U.S. Treasury yields with different maturities than previous studies which focused on the spread between short- and long-term rates. We find that 5-year Treasury yields play the role of the transmitter to other yields, conveying their liquidity and center location in yield curve advantages. Most importantly, the information transmitter role of 5-year Treasury yields remains unchanged under unconventional monetary policies even though these policies decrease the total connectedness of Treasury yields. The transmitter role of the 5-year Treasury has also manifested in the Treasury market flash event and in Treasury futures and ETFs.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "The crucial role of the five-year Treasury in the US yield curve," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923003447
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102828
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923003447
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102828?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    5. Cremers, Martijn & Fleckenstein, Matthias & Gandhi, Priyank, 2021. "Treasury yield implied volatility and real activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 412-435.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
    7. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    8. Cronin, David & Dunne, Peter G., 2019. "How effective are sovereign bond-backed securities as a spillover prevention device?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 49-66.
    9. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    10. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    11. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    12. Martin M Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V Møller & Magnus Sander & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "The Yield Spread and Bond Return Predictability in Expansions and Recessions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 2773-2812.
    13. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    14. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R. & Villa, Christophe, 2007. "Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 284-304, March.
    15. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Umut Akovali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bond Market Connectedness in the New Normal," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2101, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    18. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between China's interbank and exchange T-bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 340-353.
    19. Kurt G. Lunsford, 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2899-2934, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna & Bhaduri, Saumitra, 2016. "Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 118-139.
    3. Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Aharon, David Y., 2022. "Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 275-288.
    5. Maruska Vizek, 2019. "The Sovereign Bond Markets Return And Volatility Spillovers," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 28(2), pages 597-610, december.
    6. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: A connectedness analysis," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1501, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    7. Boyao Wu & Difang Huang & Muzi Chen, 2024. "Estimating Contagion Mechanism in Global Equity Market with Time-Zone Effect," Papers 2404.04335, arXiv.org.
    8. Lin, Mucai & Hong, Zhiwu & Su, Ge, 2024. "Transmission of liquidity and credit risks in the Chinese bond market: Analysis based on joint modeling of multiple yield curves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 597-615.
    9. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    10. Ren, Yinghua & Zhao, Wanru & You, Wanhai & Zhu, Huiming, 2022. "Multiscale features of extreme risk spillover networks among global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    12. Dungey, Mardi & Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Crisis transmission: Visualizing vulnerability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Ahmad, Wasim & Mishra, Anil V. & Daly, Kevin J., 2018. "Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Evangelos Salachas & Georgios P. Kouretas & Nikiforos T. Laopodis, 2024. "The term structure of interest rates and economic activity: Evidence from the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1018-1041, July.
    16. Gustavo Peralta, 2016. "The Nature of Volatility Spillovers across the International Capital Markets," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 6, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
    17. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    18. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    19. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Financial market connectedness between the U.S. and China: A new perspective based on non-linear causality networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Spillover and risk transmission between the term structure of the US interest rates and Islamic equities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treasury yield; Connectedness; Treasury market flash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s1057521923003447. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.