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Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions

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Abstract

The dramatic decline in commercial property values in recent years has changed popular perception about real estate investment risk. This paper aims to generate new insights into real estate investment risk and its implications for real estate valuation. It shows that the risk premium on unsecuritized commercial real estate varies over time and is strongly related to general economic conditions. A vector autoregressive model developed to forecast real estate returns reveals that time variation in real estate risk is partly predictable, and thus can help us to forecast future movements in commercial property values. The analysis suggests that in periods surrounding major market movements, changes in commercial property prices are driven more by changes in expected (required) returns than by changes in current and expected future property income. Changing expected returns may reflect rational revisions of real estate investment risk, or alternatively investor psychology or sentiment.

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  • Jim Clayton, 1996. "Market Fundamentals, Risk and the Canadian Property Cycle: Implications for Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 347-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:12:n:3:1996:p:347-368
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    5. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    6. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    7. Joseph Gyourko & Donald B. Keim, "undated". "What Does the Stock Market Tell Us About Real Estate Returns? (Revision of 18-91) (Reprint 030)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    9. Geltner, David & Mei, Jianping, 1995. "The Present Value Model with Time-Varying Discount Rates: Implications for Commercial Property Valuation and Investment Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 119-135, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," ERES eres2009_155, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. Eddie Chi Man Hui & Ka Hung Yu, 2006. "Simulating Hong Kong’s Office Leasing Market via System Dynamics Modeling," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 23-43.
    3. Yun-Ling Wu & Cheng-Huang Tung & Chun-Chang Lee, 2017. "The Power of a Leading Indicators Fluctuation Trend for Forecasting Taiwans Real Estate Business Cycle: An Application of a Hidden Markov Model," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 81-98, January.
    4. Kicki Björklund & Bo Söderberg, 1999. "Property Cycles, Speculative Bubbles and the Gross Income Multiplier," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 151-174.
    5. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Tiffany Hutcheson, 1998. "Regime Switches in Property Market Risk Premiums: Some International Comparisons," Working Paper Series 80, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Martin Hoesli & Elion Jani & André Bender, 2005. "Monte Carlo Simulations for Real Estate Valuation," FAME Research Paper Series rp148, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    7. Maurizio d¡¦Amato & Paola Amoruso, 2018. "Application of a Cyclical Capitalization Model to the London Office Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 113-143.
    8. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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