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The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs

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  • Lucio Sarno
  • Daniel L. Thornton

Abstract

Structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models are commonly used to investigate the effect of structural shocks on economic variables. The identifying restrictions imposed in many of these exercises have been criticized in the literature. This paper extends this literature by showing that if the SVAR includes one or more variables that are efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied. We argue that our analysis will likely apply to VARs that include variables that are consistent with the weaker form of the efficient market hypothesis, especially when the data are measured at the monthly or quarterly frequencies, as is frequently the case.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "The efficient market hypothesis and identification in structural VARs," Working Papers 2003-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-032
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    Cited by:

    1. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2016. "Excess liquidity and the money market in the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 33-44.
    2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    3. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore & Shane Sherlund, 2008. "GSEs, Mortgage Rates, and Secondary Market Activities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 343-363, April.
    4. Juvenal, Luciana, 2011. "Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 849-876, September.
    5. Gultekin Isiklar, 2005. "Structural VAR identification in asset markets using short-run market inefficiencies," Econometrics 0501001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jan 2005.
    6. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Ida Wolden Bache, 2006. "Assessing the structural VAR approach to exchange rate pass-through," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 309, Society for Computational Economics.

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