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A Closer Look At Long‐Run U.S. Money Demand: Linear Or Nonlinear Error‐Correction With M0, M1, Or M2?

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  • ALFRED A. HAUG
  • JULIE TAM

Abstract

We study annual U.S. data from 1869 or 1900 to 1999. We find evidence for a well‐specified and stable model of money demand with data from 1946 to 1999. We carry out diagnostic and stability tests, including linearity tests. A linear error‐correction model with the monetary base performs better than a model with M1. A specification with M2 is not supported. We use real gross national product as the scale variable and a short‐term interest rate as the opportunity cost measure. We estimate an income elasticity of 0.86 and an interest rate elasticity of −0.44 for the monetary base. (JEL E41)

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2007. "A Closer Look At Long‐Run U.S. Money Demand: Linear Or Nonlinear Error‐Correction With M0, M1, Or M2?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(2), pages 363-376, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:45:y:2007:i:2:p:363-376
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2006.00007.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    2. Błażejowski, Marcin & Kufel, Paweł & Kufel, Tadeusz & Kwiatkowski, Jacek & Osińska, Magdalena, 2018. "Model selection for modeling the demand for narrow money in transitional economies," MPRA Paper 90458, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2010. "The effect of inflation on growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(4), pages 697-714, October.
    5. Sophie Altermatt, 2018. "The Long-Run Demand for M2 Reconsidered," Diskussionsschriften dp1824, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    6. Gillman, Max & Harris, Mark N., 2008. "The Effect of Inflation on Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/25, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    7. Jiang, Chun & Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Uncovered interest parity and risk premium convergence in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 204-208.
    8. Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Chang, Tsangyao & Yin, Kedong, 2014. "Monetary convergence in East Asian countries relative to China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 228-237.
    9. Greene, Clinton A., 2010. "Smooth-adjustment econometrics and inventory-theoretic money management," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1031-1047, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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