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Is The Demise Of M2 Greatly Exaggerated?

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  • ROBERT D. LAURENT

Abstract

The early 1990s in the United States were years of sluggish economic growth alongside a sharply lowered federal funds rate, leading analysts to conclude that monetary policy must have been rendered ineffective by external influences. One previously popular monetary policy indicator not used to analyze the period was real M2, as it was widely considered to have been distorted since the early 1980s. This paper argues that it was a serious mistake to ignore M2 in the early 1990s since it never forecast (relatively or absolutely) better and helps explains this otherwise puzzling period very well. (JEL E32, E51, E52)

Suggested Citation

  • Robert D. Laurent, 1999. "Is The Demise Of M2 Greatly Exaggerated?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(4), pages 492-505, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:17:y:1999:i:4:p:492-505
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.1999.tb00699.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    2. Rik Hafer & Joseph H. Haslag & Scott E. Hein, 1994. "Monetary policy and recent business-cycle experience," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 14-28.
    3. Hansen, Gary D & Prescott, Edward C, 1993. "Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990-1991 Recession?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 280-286, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo J. M. Arnold & Sebastian Roelands, 2011. "Housing Wealth And U.S. Money Demand: A Panel Estimation," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 382-391, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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