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Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

Author

Listed:
  • Budnik, Katarzyna
  • Balatti, Mirco
  • Dimitrov, Ivan
  • Groß, Johannes
  • Hansen, Ib
  • Kleemann, Michael
  • Sanna, Francesco
  • Sarychev, Andrei
  • Siņenko, Nadežda
  • Volk, Matjaz
  • Covi, Giovanni
  • di Iasio, Giovanni
  • Cera, Katharina
  • Giuzio, Margherita
  • Mirza, Harun
  • Moccero, Diego
  • Nicoletti, Giulio
  • Pancaro, Cosimo
  • Palligkinis, Spyros

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of adverse scenarios on economies and the financial system as a whole by acknowledging a broad set of interactions and interdependencies between banks, other market participants, and the real economy. Our results highlight the importance of the starting level of bank capital, bank asset quality, and banks’ adjustments for the propagation of shocks to the financial sector and real economy. JEL Classification: E37, E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Hansen, Ib & Kleemann, Michael & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz & Covi, Giovanni & di Iasi, 2019. "Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 226, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2019226
    Note: 1355359
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    3. Altavilla, Carlo & Pariès, Matthieu Darracq & Nicoletti, Giulio, 2019. "Loan supply, credit markets and the euro area financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Adam Elbourne & Fabio Duchi, 2016. "Credit Supply Shocks in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 320, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    6. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    7. Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
    8. Greetje Everaert & Ms. Natasha X Che & Ms. Nan Geng & Bertrand Gruss & Gregorio Impavido & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Christian Saborowski & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Mr. Li Zeng, 2015. "Does Supply or Demand Drive the Credit Cycle? Evidence from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 2015/015, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gergõ Horváth, 2021. "Corporate Credit Risk Modelling in the Supervisory Stress Test of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 20(1), pages 43-73.
    2. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Martín, Diego Vila, 2021. "Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey," Working Paper Series 2567, European Central Bank.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "Stress testing in Latin America: A comparison of approaches and methodologies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 108, October –.
    4. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Jančoková, Martina & Lampe, Max & Sorvillo, Bianca & Stular, Anze & Volk, Matjaz, 2021. "Policies in support of lending following the coronavirus (COVID 19) pandemic," Occasional Paper Series 257, European Central Bank.
    5. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Carro, Adrian & Stupariu, Patricia, 2024. "Uncertainty, non-linear contagion and the credit quality channel: An application to the Spanish interbank market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Catalán, Mario & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2022. "When banks punch back: Macrofinancial feedback loops in stress tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    8. repec:ecb:ecbdps:202113 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Budnik, Katarzyna & Balatti, Mirco & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kleemann, Michael & Reichenbachas, Tomas & Sanna, Francesco & Sarychev, Andrei & Siņenko, Nadežda & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Banking euro area stress test model," Working Paper Series 2469, European Central Bank.
    10. Budnik, Katarzyna & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Giglio, Carla & Grassi, Alberto & Durrani, Agha & Figueres, Juan Manuel & Konietschke, Paul & Le Grand, Catherine & Metzler, Julian & Población García, Franc, 2024. "Advancements in stress-testing methodologies for financial stability applications," Occasional Paper Series 348, European Central Bank.
    11. Guillaume Arnould & Giuseppe Avignone & Cosimo Pancaro & Dawid Żochowski, 2022. "Bank funding costs and solvency," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(10), pages 931-963, July.
    12. Mirza, Harun & Moccero, Diego & Palligkinis, Spyros & Pancaro, Cosimo, 2020. "Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: What is their asset price impact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 430-444.
    13. Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Dunz, Nepomuk & Emambakhsh, Tina & Hennig, Tristan & Kaijser, Michiel & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Muñoz, Manuel A. & Parisi, Laura & Salleo, Carmelo, 2021. "ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test," Occasional Paper Series 281, European Central Bank.
    14. Borsuk, Marcin & Budnik, Katarzyna & Volk, Matjaz, 2020. "Buffer use and lending impact," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 11.
    15. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Giglio, Carla & Groß, Johannes & Lampe, Max & Sarychev, Andrei & Tarbé, Matthieu & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2021. "The growth-at-risk perspective on the system-wide impact of Basel III finalisation in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    16. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Marcin Borsuk & Konrad Kostrzewa, 2020. "Miary ryzyka systemowego dla Polski. Jak ryzyko systemowe wpływa na akcję kredytową banków?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(3), pages 211-238.
    18. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "A risk management perspective on macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2556, European Central Bank.
    19. Cassola, Nuno & Kok, Christoffer & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2019. "The ECB after the crisis: existing synergies among monetary policy, macroprudential policies and banking supervision," Occasional Paper Series 237, European Central Bank.
    20. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2022. "Regulatory Stress Tests and Bank Responses: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Dynamic Settings," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 1-49, June.
    21. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Dimitrov, Ivan & Naruševičius, Laurynas & Le Grand, Catherine & Nunes, André & Podlogar, Jure & Röhm, Nicola & Ter Steege, Lucas, 2024. "2023 macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system," Occasional Paper Series 347, European Central Bank.
    22. Budnik, Katarzyna & Dimitrov, Ivan & Groß, Johannes & Kusmierczyk, Piotr & Lampe, Max & Vagliano, Gianluca & Volk, Matjaz, 2022. "The economic impact of the NPLcoverage expectations in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 297, European Central Bank.
    23. Boucherie, Louis & Budnik, Katarzyna & Panos, Jiri, 2022. "Looking at the evolution of macroprudential policy stance: A growth-at-risk experiment with a semi-structural model," Occasional Paper Series 301, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector deleveraging; macroprudential policy; macro stress test; real-financial feedback mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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