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News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates*

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  • Andr? Kurmann
  • Christopher Otrok

Abstract

We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one shock can explain the majority of unpredictable movements in the slope. Impulse response functions lead us to interpret this shock as news about future total factor productivity (TFP). By showing that "slope shocks" are essentially "TFP news shocks" we provide a new explanation for the relationship between the slope and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our results also provide a new empirical benchmark for structural models at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:6:p:2612-32
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2612
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    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3243-3249, October.

    • More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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