IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijf/ijfiec/v15y2010i2p180-197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Causality from real stock returns to real activity: evidence of regime-dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Angelos Kanas

    (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

  • Christos Ioannidis

    (University of Bath, UK)

Abstract

We find strong evidence of regime switching in the relation between real stock prices and real activity for the UK over the period 1946-2002. Furthermore, there is evidence that the causality pattern from real stock returns to the IP growth rate varies across regimes: causality exists only in the low stock market volatility regime, while it does not exist in the high stock market volatility regime. As the latter largely refers to the period of inflation targeting in the UK, this finding uncovers the importance of monetary policy in insulating the real economy from unexpected financial market effects during periods of financial instability. Additional evidence of regime-dependence is uncovered using impulse response analysis. Finally, the US stock market is found to exercise significant regime-independent effects on the UK relation as a whole as well as on the future UK IP growth. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelos Kanas & Christos Ioannidis, 2010. "Causality from real stock returns to real activity: evidence of regime-dependence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 180-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:180-197
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.383
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.383?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação, 2002. "Equitity prices and Monetary Policy: An Overview with an Exploratory Model," NIPE Working Papers 1/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    4. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The gold standard, Bretton Woods and other monetary regimes: a historical appraisal," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 123-191.
    5. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
    6. Barell, Ray & Gottschalk, Sylvia, 2004. "The Volatility of the Output Gap in the G7," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 188, pages 100-107, April.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    8. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
    9. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
    10. John Taylor, 2000. "Recent changes in trend and cycle, remarks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    12. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    13. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
    14. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    15. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    16. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
    17. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    18. Chiarella Carl & Semmler Willi & Mittnik Stefan & Zhu Peiyuan, 2002. "Stock Market, Interest Rate and Output: A Model and Estimation for US Time Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, April.
    19. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-112, January.
    20. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2004. "Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-172, February.
    21. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-3.
    22. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 1995. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the stochastic behavior of real variables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 395-415, June.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2016. "Intra-national and international spillovers between the real economy and the stock market: The case of China," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 78-92.
    2. Yang, Qiao, 2019. "Stock returns and real growth: A Bayesian nonparametric approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-69.
    3. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2022. "What drives DeFi prices? Investigating the effects of investor attention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Nguyen, Trang & Chaiechi, Taha & Eagle, Lynne & Low, David, 2020. "Dynamic transmissions between main stock markets and SME stock markets: Evidence from tropical economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 308-324.
    5. Vu, Nam T., 2015. "Stock market volatility and international business cycle dynamics: Evidence from OECD economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Domenico Giannone, 2019. "Vulnerable Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1263-1289, April.
    2. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    3. Chauvet, Marcelle & Jiang, Cheng, 2023. "Nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
    5. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2011. "The nonlinear effects of expected and unexpected components of monetary policy on the dynamics of REIT returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 911-920, May.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, December.
    8. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    9. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    10. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    11. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    12. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    13. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
    14. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    15. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.
    17. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
    18. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    19. Karunanayake, Indika & Valadkhani, Abbas & O’Brien, Martin, 2012. "GDP Growth and the Interdependency of Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 50398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:15:y:2010:i:2:p:180-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.