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Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy in Peru

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  • Lahura, Erick

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the usefulness of monetary aggregates as information variables in the conduct of monetary policy. For this purpose, some recent advances on the topic were used, which include the analysis of both real-time and revised final data, and the application of Bayesian model averaging to allow for model uncertainty regarding the lag length and number of cointegrating relationships. In this paper, money is considered as an information variable for Wt (e.g. output or prices) if the following two criteria are satisfied: (i) Mt is strongly exogenous, and (ii) Mt Granger-causes Wt. Strong exogeneity is relevant because it validates conditional forecasting of Wt using monetary aggregates as conditioning variables. The results show no strong evidence supporting the usefulness of monetary aggregates as information variables for prices or output. However, this does not preclude their potential use as information variables for other macroeconomic targets such as financial stability. It is worth mentioning that the results do not imply that monetary policy in Peru is not useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahura, Erick, 2017. "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy in Peru," Working Papers 2017-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2017-003
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; cointegration; Granger causality; monetary aggregates; monetary policy; real-time data; strong exogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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