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How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?

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  • Laurence Boone
  • Michel Juillard
  • Doug Laxton
  • Papa N'Diaye

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf2:359
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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.cnrs.fr/juillard/papers/Nairu.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
    2. David T. Coe & C. John McDermott, 1997. "Does the Gap Model Work in Asia?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 59-80, March.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    4. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1991. "Using noisy indicators to measure potential output," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
    7. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. P Clark & D Laxton, 1997. "Phillips Curves," CEP Discussion Papers dp0344, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    13. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 17, European Central Bank.
    14. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    15. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1992. "Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 16(Jan), pages 2-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle: le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Ms. Dora M Iakova, 2007. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2007/076, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    7. Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff: Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 2002/220, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips Curve; Unemployment; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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