IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pav/demwpp/027.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Flamini

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Abstract

Can the choice of the target inflation index in an open-economy affect the central bank ability to forecast the interest rate path? Adopting a New Keynesian set up where the central bank faces real-world model uncertainty, this paper shows that targeting the domestic price index instead of the consumer price index substantially improves the accuracy in the distribution forecast of the interest rate. The policy implication is that adopting the domestic price index may increase the central bank's convenience of publishing the expected interest rate path.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Flamini, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," DEM Working Papers Series 027, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dem-web.unipv.it/web/docs/dipeco/quad/ps/RePEc/pav/demwpp/DEMWP0027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "A theory of the currency denomination of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 295-319, December.
    3. Lars Svensson & Noah Williams, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11733, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 16, pages 861-933, Elsevier.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    8. Flamini Alessandro & Milas Costas, 2011. "Real-Time Optimal Monetary Policy with Undistinguishable Model Parameters and Shock Processes Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 1-43, March.
    9. Kimura, Takeshi & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a micro-founded model with parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-431, February.
    10. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles & Storgaard, Peter E., 2004. "Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 263-291, July.
    11. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    12. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:1:p:125-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    16. Devereux, Michael B. & Yetman, James, 2010. "Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 181-200, February.
    17. Geraats Petra M., 2005. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
    18. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
    19. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," Working Papers 75, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    20. repec:pri:cepsud:127svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    22. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2008. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Consumption Prices: What Has Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 139-176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Flamini, Alessandro & Fracasso, Andrea, 2011. "Household's preferences and monetary policy inertia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 64-67, April.
    24. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
    25. Cinzia Alcidi & Alessandro Flamini & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Policy Regime Changes, Judgment and Taylor rules in the Greenspan Era," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 89-107, January.
    26. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    27. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1892, November.
    28. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    29. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    30. Frederic S Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    31. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    32. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    33. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," Working Papers 75, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    34. Charles Goodhart, 2005. "The Interest Rate Conditioning Assumption," FMG Discussion Papers dp547, Financial Markets Group.
    35. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
    36. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "What Measure of Inflation Should a Central Bank Target?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1058-1086, September.
    38. Richhild Moessner & William R. Nelson, 2008. "Central Bank Policy Rate Guidance and Financial Market Functioning," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 193-226, December.
    39. Goodhart, Charles, 2015. "The interest rate conditioning assumption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24666, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    40. Wen Bin Lim & Charles Goodhart, 2008. "Interest Rate Forecasts: A Pathology," FMG Discussion Papers dp612, Financial Markets Group.
    41. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, June.
    42. Ryan Banerjee & Nicoletta Batini, 2003. "UK Consumers’ Habits," Discussion Papers 13, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    43. Marianna Belloc & Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2008. "The Euro/Dollar Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Continuous Time Approach," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 243-264.
    44. Marco Lossani & Piergiovanna Natale & Patrizio Tirelli, 2001. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation Targets: Does Credibility Matter?," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 371-392.
    45. Amund Holmsen & Jan F. Qvigstad & Øistein Røisland & Kristin Solberg-Johansen, 2008. "Communicating monetary policy intentions: The case of Norges Bank," Working Paper 2008/20, Norges Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Economic Stability and the Choice of the Target Inflation Index," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-37, April.
    2. Flamini, Alessandro & Milas, Costas, 2015. "Distribution forecast targeting in an open-economy, macroeconomic volatility and financial implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 89-105.
    3. Alessandro Flamini & Costas Milas, 2014. "Open-economy Distribution Forecast Targeting, Macroeconomic Volatility and Financial Implication," DEM Working Papers Series 080, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2009. "The Simple Geometry of Transmission and Stabilization in Closed and Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 65-116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2015. "The exchange rate pass-through to import and export prices: The role of nominal rigidities and currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-25.
    7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    8. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    9. Ida Wolden Bache, 2008. "Assessing estimates of the exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper 2007/12, Norges Bank.
    10. Ahmad, Yamin S. & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Exploring international differences in inflation dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 115-135.
    11. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    12. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    13. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 9, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    14. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    15. repec:pri:cepsud:129blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
    17. Rhee, Hyuk-jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2012. "Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with inflation and output persistence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2533-2542.
    18. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    19. Galí, Jordi, 2011. "Are central banks' projections meaningful?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 537-550.
    20. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    21. Winkelmann, Lars, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alice Albonico The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Alice Albonico to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dppavit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.