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Ray Fair

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Does the local economy influence voters? : A look at state median household income growth
      by ? in FRED blog on 2020-03-02 14:00:00

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 45-61, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. A theory of extramarital affairs (JPE 1978) in ReplicationWiki ()
  2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..

    Mentioned in:

    1. Full information estimation and stochastic simulation of models with rational expectations (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1990) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1756, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    3. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2012. "Assessing the Short-Term Effects on Output of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies: Working Paper 2012-08," Working Papers 43278, Congressional Budget Office.
    4. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Ju Hyun Pyun & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers During The Global Financial Crisis: Fiscal And Monetary Interaction Matters," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 207-220, January.

  2. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1755, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Philip Levy, 2011. "The United States and the PRC : Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy," Governance Working Papers 23208, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.

  3. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects Of The U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 439-452, October.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1756, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  4. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.

  5. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.
    3. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    4. Heilemann Ullrich & Schnorr-Bäcker Susanne, 2017. "Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 29-62, February.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1756, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.

  6. Ray C. Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1634, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.

  7. Ray C. Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1635, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Merza, Ebrahim & Moosa, Imad A., 2023. "Pitfalls in Econometric Forecasting with Illustrations from Exchange Rate Economics," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 147-172.

  8. Ray C. Fair, 2007. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-share Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1602, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Duquette & Franklin Mixon & Richard Cebula, 2013. "The Impact of Legislative Tenure and Seniority on General Election Success: Econometric Evidence from U.S. House Races," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 161-172, June.

  9. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1570, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    2. Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 2013-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    3. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Айвазян С.А. & Березняцкий А.Н.* & Бродский Б.Е.**, 2019. "Неравновесные Структурные Модели Реального Сектора Российской Экономики," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 65-80, апрель.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.

  10. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1579, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2007.

    Cited by:

    1. M. Keith Chen & Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. & Edward H. Kaplan, 2008. "Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1381-1394, August.

  11. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.

    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Does the Greenspan era provide evidence on leadership in the FOMC?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 173-190.

  12. Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1536, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.

    Cited by:

    1. Anthony C. Krautmann & John L. Solow, 2009. "The Dynamics of Performance Over the Duration of Major League Baseball Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(1), pages 6-22, February.
    2. Rachel Scarfe & Carl Singleton & Adesola Sunmoni & Paul Telemo, 2024. "The age‐wage‐productivity puzzle: Evidence from the careers of top earners," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 584-606, April.
    3. Geoffrey N Tuck & Athol R Whitten, 2013. "Lead Us Not into Tanktation: A Simulation Modelling Approach to Gain Insights into Incentives for Sporting Teams to Tank," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-10, November.
    4. Gerber Eric A. E. & Craig Bruce A., 2021. "A mixed effects multinomial logistic-normal model for forecasting baseball performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 221-239, September.
    5. McShane Blakeley B. & Braunstein Alexander & Piette James & Jensen Shane T., 2011. "A Hierarchical Bayesian Variable Selection Approach to Major League Baseball Hitting Metrics," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Araki, Kenji & Hirose, Yoshihiro & Komaki, Fumiyasu, 2019. "Paired comparison models with age effects modeled as piecewise quadratic splines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 733-740.
    7. Turner, Chad & Hakes, Jahn, 2007. "Pay, productivity and aging in Major League Baseball," MPRA Paper 4326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Brander James A. & Egan Edward J. & Yeung Louisa, 2014. "Estimating the effects of age on NHL player performance," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 241-259, June.
    9. Andrew W. Nutting, 2013. "Immediate Effects of On-The-Job Training and Its Intensity," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(3), pages 303-320, June.
    10. Stephen Clayton & Michael Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2010. "Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds’ Bat?," Working Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    11. Hamrick Jeff & Rasp John, 2011. "Using Local Correlation to Explain Success in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-29, October.
    12. Null Brad, 2009. "Modeling Baseball Player Ability with a Nested Dirichlet Distribution," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-38, May.
    13. Tiruneh Gizachew, 2010. "Age and Winning Professional Golf Tournaments," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, January.
    14. John L. Solow & Anthony C. Krautmann, 2020. "Do You Get What You Pay for? Salary and Ex Ante Player Value in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 21(7), pages 705-722, October.
    15. Michael Schuckers & Michael Lopez & Brian Macdonald, 2023. "Estimation of player aging curves using regression and imputation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 681-699, June.

  13. Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1525, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

  14. Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1497, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    2. Laurence Seidman, 2006. "Learning About Bernanke," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 19-32.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2021.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    6. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.

  15. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1495, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2006.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair Ray C, 2008. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41, January.
    2. Shih-Chieh Chang & Alessandra Adami & Hsin-Chin Lin & Yin-Chou Lin & Carl P C Chen & Tieh-Cheng Fu & Chih-Chin Hsu & Shu-Chun Huang, 2020. "Relationship between maximal incremental and high-intensity interval exercise performance in elite athletes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, May.
    3. Fabrizio Castellucci & Giovanni Pica, 2009. "The Age-Productivity Gradient: Evidence from a Sample of F1 Drivers," CSEF Working Papers 226, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    4. Bertoni, Marco & Brunello, Giorgio & Rocco, Lorenzo, 2015. "Selection and the age – productivity profile. Evidence from chess players," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 45-58.

  16. Ray Fair, 2003. "Events that Shook the Market," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm307, Yale School of Management.

    Cited by:

    1. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzón, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Interdependent capital structure choices and the macroeconomy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Sawhney, Bansi L., 2002. "Dynamic interactions between Main Street and Wall Street," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 803-815.
    4. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    5. Coleman, Les, 2014. "Why finance theory fails to survive contact with the real world: A fund manager perspective," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 226-236.
    6. Fair, Ray C., 2003. "Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 307-341, June.
    7. Entorf, Horst & Steiner, Christian, 2006. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Doureige J. Jurdi, 2020. "Intraday Jumps, Liquidity, and U.S. Macroeconomic News: Evidence from Exchange Traded Funds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    10. Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-11, October.
    11. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    12. Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions," Economics Working Paper Archive 600, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    13. K. Lebedeva, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Russian Financial Markets’ Liquidity and Returns," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 3(3), pages 5-31.
    14. Chipeniuk, Karsten O. & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Forward inflation expectations: Evidence from inflation caps and floors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Antonio Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2006. "Liquidity and Financial Market Runs," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm280, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2003.
    16. Mink, Mark & de Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Contagion during the Greek sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 102-113.
    17. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
    18. Ryohei Hisano & Didier Sornette & Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "High Quality Topic Extraction from Business News Explains Abnormal Financial Market Volatility," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    19. Abdul Qayyum & Saba Anwa, 2010. "Impact of monetary policy on the volatility of stock market in pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 1-28.
    20. Xavier Gabaix & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005. "Institutional Investors and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11722, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Chuliá, Helena & Martens, Martin & Dijk, Dick van, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of federal funds target rate changes on S&P100 stock returns, volatilities and correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 834-839, April.
    22. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Amber & Gul, Ameet, 2010. "Relationship between consumer price index (CPI) and KSE-100 index trading volume in pakistan and finding the endogeneity in the involved data," MPRA Paper 26375, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Nov 2010.
    23. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Damien Challet, 2016. "Why have asset price properties changed so little in 200 years," Papers 1605.00634, arXiv.org.
    24. Nyborg, Kjell, 2015. "Central Bank Collateral Frameworks," CEPR Discussion Papers 10663, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Les Coleman, 2007. "Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An Evaluation using Thoroughbred Wagering Markets," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 31-55, February.
    26. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    27. David le Bris, 2018. "What is a market crash?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 480-505, May.
    28. Koichiro Kamada & Tetsuo Kurosaki & Ko Miura & Tetsuya Yamada, 2018. "Central Bank Policy Announcements and Changes in Trading Behavior: Evidence from Bond Futures High Frequency Price Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    29. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    30. Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael D. & Mangee, Nicholas, 2015. "Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    31. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Working Papers 14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Nyborg, Kjell G. & Östberg, Per, 2014. "Money and liquidity in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 30-52.
    33. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Eugene Stanley, H., 2008. "Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 303-319, January.
    34. Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle & Palm, Franz C., 2016. "Testing for jumps in conditionally Gaussian ARMA–GARCH models, a robust approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 383-400.
    35. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2011. "Reactions of stock market to monetary policy shocks during the global financial crisis: the Nigerian case," MPRA Paper 35581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    36. Ray Fair, 2001. "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm172, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2001.
    37. Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," Post-Print hal-01277584, HAL.
    38. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    39. Farka, Mira, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    40. Campbell, Gareth & Quinn, William & Turner, John D. & Ye, Qing, 2015. "What moved share prices in the nineteenth-century London stock market?," QUCEH Working Paper Series 15-06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    41. Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra, 2007. "Media coverage and macroeconomic information processing," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-011, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    42. R'emy Chicheportiche & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "The fine-structure of volatility feedback I: multi-scale self-reflexivity," Papers 1206.2153, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2013.
    43. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2015. "Much ado about making money:The impact of disclosure, news and rumors over the formation of security market prices over time," Department of Economics 0075, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    44. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Post-Print hal-02567495, HAL.
    45. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2020. "Much ado about making money: the impact of disclosure, news and rumors on the formation of security market prices over time," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 333-362, April.
    46. Peter Koudijs, 2016. "The Boats That Did Not Sail: Asset Price Volatility in a Natural Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1185-1226, June.
    47. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    48. Les Coleman, 2012. "Testing equity market efficiency around terrorist attacks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(31), pages 4087-4099, November.
    49. Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Does investor attention matter? The attention-return relationships in FX markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 644-660.
    50. Choi, Hyunyoung & Finnerty, Joseph, 2006. "Impact study on the interest rate futures market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 495-512, September.
    51. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Heterogeneity, spontaneous coordination and extreme events within large-scale and small-scale agent-based financial market models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1041-1070, November.
    52. Chulia-Soler, H. & Martens, M.P.E. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "The Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-066-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    53. Mira Farka, 2009. "The effect of monetary policy shocks on stock prices accounting for endogeneity and omitted variable biases," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 47-55, January.
    54. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    55. Nyborg, Kjell G., 2017. "Reprint of: Central bank collateral frameworks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 232-248.
    56. Jer-Shiou Chiou & Pei-Shan Wu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Variation of interest-rate parity and its asymmetry on stock return in a jump-diffusion process," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1309-1316.
    57. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
    58. Jean-Yves Gnabo & J�rôme Lahaye & S�bastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    59. Emilio Said, 2022. "Market Impact: Empirical Evidence, Theory and Practice," Working Papers hal-03668669, HAL.
    60. Guzmán, Alexander & Mehrotra, Vikas & Morck, Randall & Trujillo, María-Andrea, 2020. "How institutional development news moves an emerging market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 300-319.
    61. Gollier, Christian & Schlee, Edward, 2003. "Information and the Equity Premium," IDEI Working Papers 251, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 2011.
    62. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
    63. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," Papers 1507.06477, arXiv.org.
    64. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," CARF F-Series CARF-F-366, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    65. Emilio Said, 2022. "Market Impact: Empirical Evidence, Theory and Practice," Papers 2205.07385, arXiv.org.
    66. Francesco Cordoni & Fabrizio Lillo, 2020. "Instabilities in Multi-Asset and Multi-Agent Market Impact Games," Papers 2004.03546, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    67. Luo, Kevin & Tian, Shuairu, 2020. "The “Black Thursday” effect in Chinese stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    68. Kee H. Chung & John Elder & Jang-Chul Kim, 2013. "Liquidity and Information Flow around Monetary Policy Announcement," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 781-820, August.
    69. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
    70. Mickaël Clévenot & Ludovic Desmedt & Matthieu Llorca, 2015. "The Power of Words: Issuance and Reception of Central Banker's Discourse [Le pouvoir des mots : émission et réception du discours du banquier central]," Post-Print hal-04711754, HAL.
    71. Les Coleman, 2023. "Explaining mutual fund behavior through the structure‐conduct‐performance lens," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2874-2884, July.
    72. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2024. "The Self-Organized Criticality Paradigm in Economics & Finance," Papers 2407.10284, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    73. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2014, January-A.
    74. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2021. "Non-parametric Estimation of Quadratic Hawkes Processes for Order Book Events," Post-Print hal-02998555, HAL.
    75. Entorf Horst & Steiner Christian, 2007. "Makroökonomische Nachrichten und die Reaktion des 15-Sekunden-DAX: Eine Ereignisstudie zur Wirkung der ZEW-Konjunkturprognose / Announcement of Business Cycle Forecasts and the Reaction of the German ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(1), pages 3-26, February.
    76. Thomas Schuster, 2003. "News Events and Price Movements. Price Effects of Economic and Non-Economic Publications in the News Media," Finance 0305009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    77. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Hinich, Melvin J., 2008. "Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 527-544, December.
    78. Ozsoylev, Han N. & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Asset pricing in large information networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(6), pages 2252-2280.
    79. Takayuki Mizuno & Takaaki Ohnishi & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2015. "Novel and topical business news and their impact on stock market activities," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 055, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    80. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    81. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Endogenous Liquidity Crises," Papers 1912.00359, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    82. Antoine Fosset & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Non-parametric Estimation of Quadratic Hawkes Processes for Order Book Events," Papers 2005.05730, arXiv.org.
    83. Adam Zawadowski & Gyorgy Andor & Janos Kertesz, 2006. "Short-term market reaction after extreme price changes of liquid stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 283-295.
    84. Adeel Nasir & Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Mário Nuno Mata & Kanwal Iqbal Khan & Pedro Neves Mata & Joaquim António Ferrão, 2022. "Testing Stock Market Efficiency from Spillover Effect of Panama Leaks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, February.

  17. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1381, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2005.

    Cited by:

    1. Trevon D. Logan, 2007. "Whoa, Nellie! Empirical Tests of College Football's Conventional Wisdom," NBER Working Papers 13596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  18. Ray Fair, 2002. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm254, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.

    Cited by:

    1. Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2008. "A Bootstrap Method for Identifying and Evaluating a Structural Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(4), pages 509-533, August.
    2. Fair, Ray C., 2021. "Trade models and macroeconomics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 296-302.
    3. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Jensen-Butler, Chris, 2011. "Estimation of the Spatial Weights Matrix under Structural Constraints," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
    5. Debby Lanser & Henk Kranendonk, 2008. "Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation," CPB Discussion Paper 112, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.

  19. Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2002. "Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm310, Yale School of Management.

    Cited by:

    1. Fershtman, Chaim & Gandal, Neil & Fainmesser, Itay, 2005. "A Consistent Weighted Ranking Scheme with an Application to NCAA College Football Rankings," CEPR Discussion Papers 5239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nutting Andrew W., 2011. "And After That, Who Knows?: Detailing the Marginal Accuracy of Weekly College Football Polls," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, July.

  20. Ray Fair, 2001. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm202, Yale School of Management, revised 24 Sep 2001.

    Cited by:

    1. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2013. "The Assessment Of Parameter Uncertainty In A Vector Error Correction Model For Romania," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 124-134, December.
    3. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Prytula, Yaroslav & Raskina, Julia & Vymyatnina, Yulia, 2009. "A small forward-looking inter-country model (Belarus, Russia and Ukraine)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1172-1183, November.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2006. "The Linearisation and Optimal Control of Large Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models by Persistent Excitation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 139-153, September.
    8. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.
    9. Anderson, Evan W. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Small noise methods for risk-sensitive/robust economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 468-500.

  21. Ray Fair, 2001. "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm172, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2001.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2024. "Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2401, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    5. Gabriella Cagliesi & Antonio Carlo Francesco Della Bina & Massimo Tivegna, 2016. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: How Traders’ Behaviour Has Been Affected by the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(2), pages 139-177, July.
    6. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Lingfeng Li, 2003. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm328, Yale School of Management.
    8. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "U.S. leveraged loan and debt markets: Implications for optimal portfolio and hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    10. Cagliesi, Gabriella & Guidi, Francesco, 2021. "A three-tiered nested analytical approach to financial integration: The case of emerging and frontier equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2008. "Noisy Macroeconomic Announcements, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 335-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Koichiro Kamada & Tetsuo Kurosaki & Ko Miura & Tetsuya Yamada, 2018. "Central Bank Policy Announcements and Changes in Trading Behavior: Evidence from Bond Futures High Frequency Price Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
    15. Gregory H. Bauer & Clara Vega, 2006. "The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 872, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Sufana, R., 2010. "International money and stock market contingent claims," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1727-1751, December.
    17. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Acocella Nicola & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni, 2012. "Expectations Dynamics: Policy, Announcements and Limits to Dynamic Inconsistency," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Jer-Shiou Chiou & Pei-Shan Wu & Ming-Chih Lee, 2006. "Variation of interest-rate parity and its asymmetry on stock return in a jump-diffusion process," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1309-1316.
    19. Jean-Yves Gnabo & J�rôme Lahaye & S�bastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    20. Giorgio Valente, 2005. "US Monetary Policy Announcements and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 092005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    21. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Parker, John, 2007. "The Impact Of Economic News On Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 2675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    24. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2013. "Interdependence Of International Financial Market-- The Case Of India And U.S," Working papers 223, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    25. Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    26. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.
    27. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2010. "The Ties that Bind: Measuring International Bond Spillovers Using Inflation-Indexed Bond Yields," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 366-406, June.
    28. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
    29. Aymen Belgacem, 2009. "Fundamentals, Macroeconomic Announcements and Asset Prices," Working Papers hal-04140878, HAL.
    30. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2016. "The High Frequency Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements in the Brazilian Futures Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 36(2), November.

  22. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1300, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2002.

    Cited by:

    1. Hillinger, Claude & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!," Discussion Papers in Economics 6987, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Paolo Giordani, 2004. "Evaluating New‐Keynesian Models of a Small Open Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 713-733, September.
    3. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips Curves, Mixing Feedback Rules and the Distribution of Inflation and Output," CEIS Research Paper 37, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    4. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Inflation shocks and interest rate rules," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(19), pages 1-7.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Antonio Paradiso & Saten Kumar & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(26), pages 3691-3700, September.
    7. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 2009/090, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Paul Turner, 2007. "Some UK evidence on the Forward Looking IS Equation:," Discussion Paper Series 2007_16, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised May 2007.
    9. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.
    11. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    12. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, "undated". "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Carola Binder, 2018. "Interest Rate Prominence In Consumer Decision‐Making," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 875-894, April.

  23. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Is There Empirical Support for the 'Modern' View of Macroeconomics?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm201, Yale School of Management.

    Cited by:

    1. Campbell Leith & Jim Malley, 2002. "Estimated General Equilibrium Models for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy in the US and Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 699, CESifo.
    2. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Andrea Colciago & Tiziano Ropele & V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 2008. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 591-610, August.

  24. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1298, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.
    2. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    3. Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2014. "Inflation illusion and the Taylor principle: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 94-110.
    4. Xiao, Wei, 2005. "Increasing Returns and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 2005-08, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
    5. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
    7. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    8. Jean-Pascal Benassy, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules, Price Determinacy and the Value of Money in a non Ricardian World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 651-667, July.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Inflation shocks and interest rate rules," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(19), pages 1-7.
    10. Bruno Merlevede & Joseph Plasmans & Bas van Aarle, 2003. "A Small Macroeconomic Model of the EU-Accession Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 221-250, July.
    11. Julio López Gallardo & Luis Antonio Reyes Ortiz, 2014. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy [Demande Effective dans l'évolution récente de l'économie des Etats-Unis]," Post-Print halshs-01907268, HAL.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1861, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Julio Lopez-Gallardo & Luis Reyes-Ortiz, 2011. "Effective Demand in the Recent Evolution of the US Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_673, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Luis Carranza & Jose E. Galdon‐Sanchez & Javier Gomez‐Biscarri, 2010. "Understanding the Relationship between Financial Development and Monetary Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 849-864, November.
    15. Alistair Dieppe & Jerome Henry & Peter Mc Adam, "undated". "Labour market dynamics in the euro area: A model-based sensitivity analysis," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 09, Society for Computational Economics.
    16. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
    17. Alessandro Piergallini, 2006. "Real Balance Effects and Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(3), pages 497-511, July.
    18. Ray C. Fair, 2011. "What It Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised May 2012.
    19. Siagi Ayub Nteng’a & Ombui Kefa Andrew & Mukulu Elegwa, 2014. "Effect of the Structure of Guidance and Counselling Programme on the Performance of Commercial Banks in Kenya," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 57-76, January.

  25. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
    4. David Rae & David Turner, 2001. "A Small Global Forecasting Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 286, OECD Publishing.
    5. Novella Maugeri, 2010. "Macroeconomic Implications of Near Rational Behavior: an Application to the Italian Phillips Curve," Department of Economics University of Siena 587, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    6. Jonathan L. Willis, 2003. "Implications of structural changes in the U.S. economy for pricing behavior and inflation dynamics," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 88(Q I), pages 5-27.

  26. Ray C. Fair, 1997. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1168, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.

  27. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1121, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34.
    2. James K. Galbraith, 1997. "Time to Ditch the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-108, Winter.
    3. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    4. Robert M. Coen, 1999. "The NAIRU and Wages in Local Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 52-57, May.

  28. Ray C. Fair & Diane J. Macunovich, 1996. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1116, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
    2. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Cohort Size Effects on US Enrollment Decisions," Williams Project on the Economics of Higher Education DP-36, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    3. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.

  29. Ray C. Fair & E. Philip Howrey, 1995. "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1091, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Richard Dennis, 2000. "Steps toward identifying central bank policy preferences," Working Paper Series 2000-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Endres, A. M. & Fleming, Grant A., 1998. "The early development of monetary policy rules: The view from Geneva in the 1920s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 375-386, July.
    4. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2006. "What if the Fed increased the weight of the stock price gap in its reaction function?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 725-737, October.
    6. John C. Williams, 2003. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
    7. Benchimol, Jonathan, 2024. "Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2000. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank.
    9. Ray Fair, 2001. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm205, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    10. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
    11. Fourcans, Andre & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "The ECB interest rate rule under the Duisenberg presidency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 579-595, September.
    12. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    13. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    15. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," ESSEC Working Papers WP1610, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    16. Thornton, Saranna Robinson, 2000. "How do broader monetary aggregates and divisia measures of money perform in McCallum's adaptive monetary rule?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 181-204.
    17. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    19. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Jérôme Creel, 2001. "Faut-il contraindre la politique budgétaire en union monétaire ? : Les enseignements d'une maquette simulée," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01016995, HAL.
    21. Amman, Hans M & Kendrick, David A, 1999. "Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(3), pages 263-267, December.
    22. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Catherine Bac, 2001. "Arbitrage entre fluctuations de l'inflation et de l'activité au niveau de la zone "euro"," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 150(4), pages 47-58.
    24. Alexis Penot, 1998. "La politique monétaire française à travers la règle de Taylor," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(5), pages 135-154.
    25. Philip N. Jefferson, 1997. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    26. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," Post-Print hal-02876656, HAL.
    27. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    28. Gunter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A Simple Estimated Euro Area Model With Rational Expectations And Nominal Rigidities," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 187, Society for Computational Economics.
    29. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    30. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    31. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2000. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Rules in Estimated Forward-Looking Models: A Comparison of US and German Monetary Policies," Working papers 76, Banque de France.
    32. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
    33. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2017. "Monetary Rule, Central Bank Loss and Household’s Welfare: an Empirical Investigation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

  30. Ray C. Fair, 1994. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1084, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "A model of voter choice in a life cycle setting," Research Paper 9404, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 5539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2009. "Modelling the general public's inflation expectations using the Michigan survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1311-1320.

  31. Ray C. Fair, 1994. "Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1071, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.

  32. Ray C. Fair, 1992. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," NBER Working Papers 3990, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jochen Hartwig, 2013. "Structural Change, Aggregate Demand and Employment Dynamics in the OECD, 1970-2010," KOF Working papers 13-343, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Ramser, Hans Jürgen, 1992. "Nicht-kompetitive Gütermärkte im makroökonomischen Modell," Discussion Papers, Series I 263, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1998. "An Optimising Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation Help?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9812, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q4), pages 35-50.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
    6. Haber Gottfried, 2008. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Analysis With an Agent-Based Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 276-295, April.
    7. Maria Elena Bontempi, 2013. "The Istat MeMo-It Macroeconometric Model: comments and suggestions for possible extensions," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 47-56.
    8. Snowdon, Brian & Vane, Howard R., 1996. "The development of modern macroeconomics: Reflections in the light of Johnson's analysis after twenty-five years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 381-401.

  33. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?," NBER Working Papers 3757, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Fu Chen & Gylfi Zoega, 2010. "Life-Cycle, Effort and Academic Deadwood," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 233, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    2. Jan Ours, 2009. "Will You Still Need Me: When I’m 64?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 441-460, December.
    3. Cardoso, Ana Rute & Guimaraes, Paulo & Varejão, José, 2010. "Are Older Workers Worthy of Their Pay? An Empirical Investigation of Age-Productivity and Age-Wage Nexuses," IZA Discussion Papers 5121, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Hunkler, Christian & Weiss, Matthias, 2021. "Big data at work: Age and labor productivity in the service sector," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    5. Filippin, A. & van Ours, J.C., 2012. "Run For Fun : Intrinsic Motivation and Physical Performance," Discussion Paper 2012-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Fair Ray C, 2008. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41, January.
    7. Bayer Thomas & Page John & Raviv Yaron & Rosett Joshua, 2013. "Age, Human Capital, and the Quality of Work: New Evidence from Old Masters," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 687-708, July.
    8. Börsch-Supan, A. & Weiss, M., 2013. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," ROA Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    9. Chen, Yu-Fu & Zoeg, Gylfi, 2011. "Life-Cycle, Effort and Academic Inactivity," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-27, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Yao, Rui & Sharpe, Deanna L. & Wang, Feifei, 2011. "Decomposing the age effect on risk tolerance," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 879-887.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2007. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions Over the Lifecycle," NBER Working Papers 13191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Rui Yao & Angela Curl, 2011. "Do Market Returns Influence Risk Tolerance? Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 532-544, September.
    13. Ray C. Fair & Edward H. Kaplan, 2017. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2100, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. David J. Berri & Richard C. K. Burdekin & Christian Deutscher, 2022. "Nationality Effects on the Allocation of Playing Time in the Chinese Basketball Association: Xenophilia or Xenophobia?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 156-174, February.
    15. Chen, Yu-Fu & Zoega, Gylfi, 2012. "Slowing Down," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-40, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    16. Norbert Bach & Oliver Guertler & Joachim Prinz, 2009. "Incentive Effects in Tournaments with Heterogeneous Competitors – an Analysis of the Olympic Rowing Regatta in Sydney 2000," management revue - Socio-Economic Studies, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 20(3), pages 239-253.
    17. Wolfgang Maennig & Michael Stobernack, 2010. "Do Men Slow Down Faster than Women?," Working Papers 038, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
    18. Pekkarinen, Tuomas & Uusitalo, Roope, 2012. "Aging and Productivity: Evidence from Piece Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 6909, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Bushra Komal & Bilal & Ernest Ezeani & Asim Shahzad & Muhammad Usman & Juncheng Sun, 2023. "Age diversity of audit committee financial experts, ownership structure and earnings management: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2664-2682, July.
    20. Benoit Dostie, 2011. "Wages, Productivity and Aging," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 139-158, June.
    21. David J. Berri & Christian Deutscher & Arturo Galletti, 2015. "Born in the USA: National Origin Effects on Time Allocation in US and Spanish Professional Basketball," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 232(1), pages 41-50, May.
    22. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6741.
    23. Christian Deutscher, 2009. "The Payoff to Leadership in Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 429-438, August.
    24. Stephen Clayton & Michael Nieswiadomy & Mark C. Strazicich, 2010. "Was There a Structural Break in Barry Bonds’ Bat?," Working Papers 10-13, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    25. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Lea‐Rachel Kosnik, 2024. "Why do older scholars slow down?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 488-499, January.
    26. Paul Hek & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "Are older workers overpaid? A literature review," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 18(4), pages 436-460, August.
    27. Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1495, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2006.
    28. Jianmin Tang & Carolyn MacLeod, 2006. "Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 582-603, May.
    29. Bernd Frick & Oliver Gürtler & Joachim Prinz, 2008. "Anreize in Turnieren mit heterogenen Teilnehmern — Eine empirische Untersuchung mit Daten aus der Fußball-Bundesliga," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 385-405, June.
    30. Clifford B. Sowell & Wm. Stewart Mounts Jr., 2005. "Ability, Age, and Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 78-97, February.
    31. Ray Fair, 2004. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2481, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    32. Christian Deutscher & Oliver Gürtler & Joachim Prinz & Daniel Weimar, 2017. "The Payoff To Consistency In Performance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 1091-1103, April.

  34. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo.
    2. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    3. Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Using econometric models to predict recessions," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 15(Nov), pages 14-25.

  35. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 896, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Allen, Donald S., 1997. "A multi-sector inventory model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-87, January.
    2. Fisher, J.D.M. & Hornstein, A., 1995. "(S,s)Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium," University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series 9514, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
    3. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Van Houdt, Benny, 2007. "An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 121-142, April.
    4. Daniel Levy & Georg Muller & Shantanu Dutta & Mark Bergen, 2004. "Holiday Price Rigidity and Cost of Price Adjustment," Macroeconomics 0402019, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2005.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Beaulieu, J. Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1991. "The seasonal cycle in U.S. manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 115-118, October.
    7. Louri, Helen, 1996. "Inventory investment in Greek manufacturing industry: Effects from participation in the European market," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 47-54, August.
    8. Humphreys, Brad R., 2001. "The behavior of manufacturers inventories: Evidence from US industry level data," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 9-20, May.
    9. Reinhardt, Paul & Beyer, Dirk, 1996. "Does the time shape of inventory data hold clues on inventory behaviour," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 77-81, August.
    10. Lai, Richard, 2005. "Bullwhip in a Spanish Shop," MPRA Paper 4758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 2000. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment: evidence from U.S. firm-level data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    13. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    16. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2012. "Bullwhip Effect Measurement and Its Implications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 771-784, August.
    17. Durlauf, S.N. & Maccini, L.J., 1993. "Measuring Noise in Inventory Models," Working papers 9326, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    18. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 1996. "Uncertainty and the price for crude oil reserves," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1655, The World Bank.
    19. George Hall & John Rust, 1999. "An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries," Macroeconomics 9904005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Eric Dubois, 1991. "Le modèle de lissage de la production par les stocks est-il valide en France ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 95-111.
    21. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    22. Jonathan McCarthy & Egon Zakrajšek, 1998. "Microeconomic inventory adjustment and aggregate dynamics," Staff Reports 54, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2021. "Effects of foreign currency debt on investment of the firms in emerging economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 4993-5004, October.
    24. Ghali, Moheb A., 2003. "Production-planning horizon, production smoothing, and convexity of the cost functions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 67-74, January.
    25. Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Blinder, Alan S & Maccini, Louis J, 1991. "The Resurgence of Inventory Research: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 291-328.
    27. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    28. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K. Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh, 1997. "Input and Output Inventories," Economics Working Paper Archive 391, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    30. Mark Bils & James A. Kahn, 1999. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us About Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Jin, Ming & DeHoratius, Nicole & Schmidt, Glen, 2017. "In search of intra-industry bullwhips," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 51-65.
    32. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    33. Li Chen & Wei Luo & Kevin Shang, 2017. "Measuring the Bullwhip Effect: Discrepancy and Alignment Between Information and Material Flows," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 36-51, February.
    34. George J. Hall, 1996. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: a study of production and inventories at automobile assembly plants," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    35. Qu, Zhan & Raff, Horst, 2017. "Centralized versus Decentralized Inventory Control in Supply Chains and the Bullwhip Effect," KCG Working Papers 6, Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG).
    36. Zotteri, Giulio, 2013. "An empirical investigation on causes and effects of the Bullwhip-effect: Evidence from the personal care sector," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 489-498.
    37. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    38. Döpke, Jörg & Langfeldt, Enno, 1997. "Abnehmende Bedeutung der Lagerinvestitionen für den Konjunkturverlauf?," Kiel Working Papers 815, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    39. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Moore, George R. & Schuh, Scott D., 1995. "Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 115-157, February.
    41. Brown, Ward & Haegler, Urs, 2004. "Financing constraints and inventories," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1091-1123, October.
    42. ElFayoumi, Khalid, 2018. "The balance sheet effects of oil market shocks: An industry level analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 112-127.
    43. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Sep), pages 21-40.
    44. Donald S. Allen, 1997. "Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-50.
    45. Lovell, Michael C., 1996. "Macroeconomic implications of S,s versus accelerator finished goods inventory strategies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 55-64, August.
    46. Carine Bouthevillain & Didier Eyssartier, 1997. "Le rôle des variations de stocks dans les cycles d'activité des principaux pays industrialisés," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 151-202.
    47. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Solar Australia," MPRA Paper 71201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    48. Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 2001. "Inventory investment and asymmetric adjustment: Some evidence for the UK," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 251-260, August.
    49. Donald S. Allen, 1999. "Seasonal production smoothing," Working Papers 1999-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    50. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory Investment, Internal-Finance Fluctuation, and the Business Cycle," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 75-138.

  36. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rucker C. Johnson & Steven Raphael, 2009. "The Effects of Male Incarceration Dynamics on Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Infection Rates among African American Women and Men," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 251-293, May.
    3. Townsend, Rob F. & van Zyl, Johan & Thirtle, Colin G., 1997. "Assessing the benefits of research expenditures on maize production in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(4), pages 1-13, December.
    4. Alessandro Magrini & Fabio Bartolini & Alessandra Coli & Barbara Pacini, 2019. "A structural equation model to assess the impact of agricultural research expenditure on multiple dimensions," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 2063-2080, July.

  37. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Versus Structural Approaches," NBER Working Papers 3045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Hukkinen, Juhana & Viren, Matti, 1999. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 753-768, November.
    2. Simon, Carl Nally Regi, 2017. "Les canaux de transmission de la politique monetaire en Haiti: une approche narrative (1996-2016) [Monetary transmission channels in Haiti: a narrative approach (1996-2016)]," MPRA Paper 78294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hukkinen, Juhana & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Assessing the performance of a macroeconomic model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1995, Bank of Finland.

  38. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1989. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 921, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
    2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick, 2007. "Optimising indexation arrangements under Calvo contracts and their implications for monetary policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    3. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Testing price equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1424-1437, November.
    4. Sergio Rey & Guy West & Mark Janikas, 2004. "Uncertainty in Integrated Regional Models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 259-277.
    5. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
    6. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-22.
    7. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1258, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Yue Ma & Guy Meredith & Matthew S. Yiu, 2002. "A Currency Board Model of Hong Kong," Working Papers 012002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    11. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Testing Price Equations," Kiel Working Papers 1342, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Dury, K. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "Fiscal Policy in EMU: Simulating the Operation of the Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers eco2000/3, European University Institute.
    14. Pesaran, M.H. & Samiei, H., 1993. "Limited-Dependaent Rational Expectations Models with Future Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Ray Fair, 2001. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm202, Yale School of Management, revised 24 Sep 2001.
    16. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2499, Yale School of Management.
    17. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Barrell, Ray & Dury, Karen & Hurst, Ian, 2003. "International monetary policy coordination: an evaluation using a large econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 507-527, May.
    19. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.

  39. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Li, Shanjun & Yoo, Han Kyul & Macauley, Molly & Palmer, Karen & Shih, Jhih-Shyang, 2015. "Assessing the role of renewable energy policies in landfill gas to energy projects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 687-697.
    3. Silvia Fabiani & Angela Gattulli & Roberto Sabbatini, 2003. "La rigidità dei prezzi in Italia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 325-358.

  40. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    1. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & João Pedro Neves Maia, 2022. "Interest rate expectations based on Taylor rule versus central bank’s survey: which performs better in a large emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4532-4544, August.
    3. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
    4. Yu, Fenchin, 1990. "Empirical tests of the rationality of USDA crop forecasts," ISU General Staff Papers 1990010108000018155, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Michael T. Belongia, 1988. "Are economic forecasts by government agencies biased? Accurate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 15-23.
    6. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    7. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    9. João Valle e Azevedo, 2011. "Rational vs. professional forecasts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2019. "Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-18, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Aug 2020.
    12. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    13. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage," Working Papers 2022-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 23 Oct 2023.
    14. Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
    16. Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. António Rua, 2011. "A wavelet approach for factor‐augmented forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 666-678, November.
    18. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    19. Elkin Castaño & Luis Fernando Melo, 1998. "Métodos de Combinación de Pronósticos: Una Aplicación a la Inflación Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 109, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. João Valle e Azevedo, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Low-Frequency Filters," Working Papers w201301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Frédérique Bec & Matteo Mogliani, 2013. "Nowcasting French GDP in Real-Time from Survey Opinions : Information or Forecast Combinations ?," Working Papers 2013-21, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    22. Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
    23. Florian Teschner & Henner Gimpel, 2018. "Crowd Labor Markets as Platform for Group Decision and Negotiation Research: A Comparison to Laboratory Experiments," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 197-214, April.
    24. Abosedra, Salah & Baghestani, Hamid, 2004. "On the predictive accuracy of crude oil futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 1389-1393, August.
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    26. Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
    27. Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    28. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    29. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2015. "A ranking of VAR and structural models in forecasting," MPRA Paper 61502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2003. "Housing market segmentation and hedonic prediction accuracy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 181-201, September.
    31. Luis Fernando Melo & Héctor Núñez, 2004. "Combinación de Pronósticos de la Inflación en Presencia de cambios Estructurales," Borradores de Economia 286, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    32. Elkin Castaño Vélez & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2000. "Metodos de combinacion de pronosticos: una aplicacion a la inflacion," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 52, pages 113-165, Enero Jun.

  41. Ray C. Fair, 1988. "VAR Models as Structural Approximations," NBER Working Papers 2495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Maite Alguacil & Ana Cuadros & Vicente Orts, 2004. "Does saving really matter for growth? Mexico (1970-2000)," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 281-290.

  42. Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 839, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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    1. Andreas Andersson & Par Osterholm, 2005. "Forecasting real exchange rate trends using age structure data - the case of Sweden," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 267-272.
    2. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1998. "Age structure and inflation - a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-37, July.
    3. Peter S. Yoo, 1994. "The baby boom and international capital flows," Working Papers 1994-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Britta Baum & Helmut Seitz & Andrej Worobjew, 2002. "Der Einfluss der Alters- und Familienstrukturen auf die Ausgaben der Länder und Gemeinden," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(1), pages 147-162.
    5. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Schultz, T. Paul, 2004. "Demographic Determinants of Savings: Estimating and Interpreting the Aggregate Association in Asia," Center Discussion Papers 28409, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    7. Chen, Jiazi & Niu, Linlin, 2023. "How do baby boomers affect interest rates? A functional analysis of the impact of age distribution on macroeconomic trends," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "Inflation and demography through time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Don Freeman, 2009. "Beer in Good Times and Bad: A U.S. State-Level Analysis of Economic Conditions and Alcohol Consumption," Working Papers 0906, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    10. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    11. Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 857-894, July.
    12. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2020. "Demographic Change, Technological Advances, and Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 617, Asian Development Bank.
    13. Skans, Oskar Nordstrom, 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 419-426, March.
    14. Kenza Benhima & Olena Havrylchyk, 2010. "When Do Long‐term Imbalances Lead to Current Account Reversals?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 107-128, January.
    15. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    16. Matthew Higgins, 1997. "Demography, national savings and international capital flows," Staff Reports 34, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & John Nkwoma Inekwe & Kuntal Kumar Das & Umakant Dash & Augustine C. Arize, 2022. "Does the pattern of age dependency matter in the promotion of financial development in an emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(48), pages 5622-5637, October.
    18. Donald W.K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1993. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1053, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Diane J. Macunovich, 1999. "The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 215-272.
    20. Eilev S. Jansen, 2010. "Wealth effects on consumption in financial crises: the case of Norway," Discussion Papers 616, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    21. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Lane, Philip, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEPR Discussion Papers 2873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    23. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2008. "Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 521-539, July.
    24. Chihiro Shimizu & Yongheng Deng & Tomoo Inoue & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2024. "Demographics Outlook, Credit Conditions, and Property Prices," Working Papers e198, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    25. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Multipliers," Trinity Economics Papers tep1621, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
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    27. Bo Malmberg, 2012. "Fertility Cycles, Age Structure and Housing Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 467-482, November.
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    30. Arezki, Arezki, 2010. "Demography, credit and institutions: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 27682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Ray C. Fair & Diane J. Macunovich, 1996. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1116, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    32. Lei He & Shuyi Zhou & Zilan Liu, 2020. "How is aggregate household consumption affected jointly by longevity, pension, and aging? Theory and evidence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(4), pages 499-512, December.
    33. Britta Stoever, 2012. "The Influence of Age on Consumption," EcoMod2012 3808, EcoMod.
    34. Mikael Juselius & Elod Takats, 2015. "Can demography affect inflation and monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 485, Bank for International Settlements.
    35. Bo Malmberg, 2010. "Low Fertility and the Housing Market: Evidence from Swedish Regional Data [Basse Fécondité et Marché du Logement: Une Analyse de Données Régionales Suédoises]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 229-244, May.
    36. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    37. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2020. "Bi-Demographic and Current Account Dynamics using SVAR Model: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 109772, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2021.
    38. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    39. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    40. Zongwu Cai & Jiazi Chen & Linlin Niu, 2021. "A Semiparametric Model for Bond Pricing with Life Cycle Fundamental," Working Papers 2021-01-06, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    41. Erlandsen, Solveig & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "Consumption and population age structure," Memorandum 27/2004, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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    43. Mitch Kunce, 2023. "Age Cohort Affects on U.S. State-Level Alcohol Consumption Shares: Insights Using Attraction CODA," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(3), pages 1-1.
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    45. Jaehyeok Kim & Minwoo Jang & Donghyun Shin, 2019. "Examining the Role of Population Age Structure upon Residential Electricity Demand: A Case from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
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    67. Lei He & Shuyi Zhou & Zilan Liu, 0. "How is aggregate household consumption affected jointly by longevity, pension, and aging? Theory and evidence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 0, pages 1-14.
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    97. J. Elhorst, 2008. "A spatiotemporal analysis of aggregate labour force behaviour by sex and age across the European Union," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 167-190, June.
    98. Begona Eguía & Cruz Angel Echevarría, "undated". "Estructura de la edad poblacional y consumo privado en Espana," Studies on the Spanish Economy 117, FEDEA.
    99. Berg, Lennart, 1996. "Age Distribution, Saving and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    100. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    101. Kopecky, Joseph, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    102. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2023. "Demographics and Current Account Imbalances: Accounting for the Full Age Distribution," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 719-758, September.
    103. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling," Papers 1803.11161, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    104. Barry Bosworth & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2007. "Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2007.
    105. Diane Macunovich, 1999. "The Baby Boom As It Ages: How Has It Affected Patterns of Consumptions and Savings in the United States?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 7, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    106. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.

  43. Ray C. Fair, 1987. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule," MPRA Paper 95489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
    3. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2019. "Microfundamentos de una Regla de Política Monetaria, Regla de Poole [Microfundaments of a Monetary Policy Rule, Poole's Rule]," MPRA Paper 93854, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  44. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 833R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1988.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1988. "VAR Models as Structural Approximations," NBER Working Papers 2495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 87-92, May.
    3. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2015. "A ranking of VAR and structural models in forecasting," MPRA Paper 61502, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  45. Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1987. "Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 832, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2008. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for Break Point Estimators in Models Estimated via 2SLS," MPRA Paper 9472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hall, Alastair R. & Han, Sanggohn & Boldea, Otilia, 2008. "Inference regarding multiple structural changes in linear models estimated via two stage least squares," MPRA Paper 9251, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jun 2008.

  46. Ray C. Fair, 1987. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 831, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Brendan O'Flaherty, 1990. "The Care And Handling Of Monetary Authorities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 25-44, March.
    2. Ron Shachar, 1993. "Forgetfulness And The Political Cycle," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 15-25, March.

  47. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 813, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Bekir Asik, 2024. "Uncertainty and Money Demand Function in Developing Countries," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 111-136, December.
    2. Bernd Hayo, 2000. "The demand for money in Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 581-603.
    3. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
    4. Kollman, R., 1996. "The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation," Cahiers de recherche 9614, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. A. M. M. Jamal & Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Demand for Money in a Simultaneous-Equation Framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1929-1934.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable?: Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 982, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
    8. Augustine C. Arize & Ali F. Darrat & Donald J. Meyer, 1990. "Capital Mobility, Monetization, and Money Demand in Developing Economies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 34(1), pages 69-75, March.
    9. Alexi Thompson & Henry Thompson, 2021. "Six decades of inflation and money demand," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 240-251, April.
    10. Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1991. "Bands and statistical properties of EMS exchange rates : A Monte Carlo investigation of three target zone model," Other publications TiSEM 2e32df5f-5552-40c3-9219-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "A forward-looking multicountry model: MX3," International Finance Discussion Papers 359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
    13. Raimundo Soto M. & Matías Tapia G., 2000. "Seasonal Cointegration in Money Demand," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(3), pages 57-71, December.
    14. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Tests of Functional Forms, Currency Substitution, and Capital Mobility of Czech Money Demand Function," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(4), pages 291-299.
    15. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    16. Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    17. Läufer, Nikolaus K. A., 1995. "The relative stability of the European money demand function: The portfolio diversification effect," Discussion Papers, Series II 249, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    18. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Wen-Jen Hsieh & Yu Hsing, 2009. "Tests of currency substitution, capital mobility and nonlinearity of Hungary's money demand function," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 959-964.
    20. Arize, A. C. & Shwiff, Steven S., 1998. "The appropriate exchange-rate variable in the money demand of 25 countries: an empirical investigation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 169-185, December.
    21. Gérard Duchêne & Ramona Jimborean & Boris Najman, 2006. "Structure of Monetary Assets in Transition Economies: Financial Innovation and Structural Transformation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00270544, HAL.
    22. Christian Ferrada K. & Mario Tagle E., 2014. "Estimación Reciente de la Demanda de Dinero en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 17(3), pages 86-109, December.
    23. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does \\"excessively volatile\\" mean, anyway?," Research Paper 9601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Nano Prawoto, 2010. "Money demand: a study on the Indonesian influential factors," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 2(3), pages 223-236, April.
    25. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Currency Substitution, Capital Mobility and Functional Forms of Money Demand in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 35-48, Jan-Jun.
    26. Ivo Arnold, 1994. "The myth of a stable European money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 249-259, July.
    27. Tourinho, Octávio A. F ., 1997. "The Demand and Supply of Money Under High Inflation: Brazil 1974-1994," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 17(2), November.
    28. Smith, Marlene A & Smyth, David J, 1991. "Multiple and Pairwise Non-nested Tests of the Influence of Taxes on Money Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 17-30, Jan.-Marc.
    29. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Estimating a European demand for money," ZEI Working Papers B 05-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    30. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    31. Yu Hsing, 2007. "Impacts of the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate on the Argentine money demand function," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 35-39.
    32. Marek Dabrowski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2002. "Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia: Transition Experience and Future Recommendations," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0241, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    33. Iskandar Simorangkir, 2002. "Financial Deregulation And Demand for Money In Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, June.
    34. Elmer Sterken, 2004. "Demand for money and shortages in Ethiopia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(12), pages 759-769.
    35. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    36. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2002. "The demand for money in korea: Evidence from the cointegration test," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 188-195, August.
    37. Chapra, Muhammad Umer, 1996. "Monetary Management In An Islamic Economy," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 4, pages 2-35.
    38. A. M. M. Jamal, 2002. "The term structure of interest rates and the demand for money," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 571-573.
    39. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1996. "The demand for money in Japan: Evidence from cointegration analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    41. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 1999. "Survey of Literature on Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models," IMF Working Papers 1999/064, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Ante Babić, 2000. "The Monthly Transaction Money Demand in Croatia," Working Papers 5, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    43. Ben Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2013. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," MPRA Paper 51788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. Elena Sinelnikova-Muryleva, 2011. "Innovations in the sphere of payments and the money demand in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 157P.
    46. A. C. Arize, 1994. "An Econometric Analysis of Money Demand in Taiwan, 1950–1989," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 38(1), pages 27-35, March.
    47. James Boughton, 1992. "International comparisons of money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 323-343, October.
    48. Raimundo Soto & Matías Tapia, 2001. "Seasonal cointegration and the stability of the demand for money," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 103, Central Bank of Chile.
    49. Palley, Thomas I., 1995. "The demand for money and non-GDP transactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 145-154, May.

  48. Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. O'Rourke, Kevin & Ellison, Martin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2020. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15061, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Bill Dorval & Gregor W. Smith, 2015. "Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1599-1615, December.
    4. John Landon-Lane & Eugene N. White & Adam Klug, 2002. "How Could Everyone Have Been So Wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the Railroads," NBER Working Papers 9011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christina D. Romer, 1988. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 2639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., "undated". "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0011, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    7. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1929 Stock Market: Irving Fisher Was Right," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 991-1009, November.
    8. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
    9. Wolf, Nikolaus & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period," Papers 2004,10, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    10. Henry, Peter B., 2001. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Research Papers 1681, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    11. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jean-Laurent Cadorel, 2024. "The 1929 Crash of the New York Stock Exchange as a Liquidity Crisis [Le Krach de 1929 du New York Stock Exchange comme crise de liquidité]," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04347097, HAL.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?," NBER Working Papers 3174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christina Romer & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1989. "A New Monthly Index of Industrial Production, 1884-1940," NBER Working Papers 3172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    16. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.
    17. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "With a Bang, Not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's 'Stock Market Bubble' in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3257, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Pooyan Amir Ahmadi & Albrecht Ritschl, 2010. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEP Discussion Papers dp0967, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," NBER Working Papers 18751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    21. Rasheed Saleuddin, 2014. "Can Inflation Expectations Be Measured Using Commodity Futures Prices?," Working Papers 20, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    22. Gabriel Mathy & Herman O. Stekler, 2016. "Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press," Working Papers 2016-011, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    23. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 2000_07, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    24. Weder, Mark & Harrison, Sharon G, 2002. "Did Sunspot Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Argandoña, Antonio, 2013. "Irving Fisher: un gran economista," IESE Research Papers D/1082, IESE Business School.
    26. Siklos, Pierre L., 2008. "The Fed's reaction to the stock market during the great depression: Fact or artefact?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 164-184, April.
    27. João Miguel Ejarque, 2009. "Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Durable Consumption and the Great Depression," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(303), pages 574-587, July.
    28. Lukáš Kovanda & Martin Komrska, 2017. "Deflace, odklad spotřeby a hospodářské krize: rétorika centrálních bank vs. ekonomická literatura [Deflation and Economic Crisis: Central Banks' Rhetoric vs. Economic Literature]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 351-369.
    29. Giovanni Favero, 2007. "Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers," Working Papers 2007_14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    30. Andrew Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Gabriel Mathy & Yongchen Zhao, 2023. "Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression?," Working Papers 2023-05, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
    32. Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N., 1993. "Was There a Bubble in the 1929 Stock Market?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 549-574, September.
    33. Gabriel Mathy & Christian Roatta, 2018. "Forecasting the 1937-1938 Recession: Quantifying Contemporary Newspaper Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    34. Heilemann Ullrich & Schnorr-Bäcker Susanne, 2017. "Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 29-62, February.
    35. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    36. Zhan Gao & Ji Hyung Lee & Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi, 2024. "Econometric Inference for High Dimensional Predictive Regressions," Papers 2409.10030, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    37. Karol Jan Borowiecki & Michał Dzieliński & Alexander Tepper, 2023. "The great margin call: The role of leverage in the 1929 Wall Street crash," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 807-826, August.
    38. Ritschl, Albrecht & Woitek, Ulrich, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2009. "Los Barómetros de Harvard: ¿Permitían Pedecir la Depresión de 1929? [Harvard Barometers: Did they allow to predict the Great Depression of 1929?]," MPRA Paper 16411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    40. Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke & Sang Seok Lee & Martin Ellison, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Working Papers 20200035, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised May 2020.
    41. Charles W. Calomiris, 1993. "Financial Factors in the Great Depression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 61-85, Spring.
    42. Robert W. Dimand & John Geanakoplos, 2005. "Celebrating Irving Fisher: The Legacy of a Great Economist," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 3-18, January.
    43. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Understanding the Great Depression: Lessons for Current Policy," NBER Working Papers 6015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  49. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 692, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Glosser, Stuart M. & Golden, Lonnie, 1997. "Average work hours as a leading economic variable in US manufacturing industries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 175-195, June.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining theSlowU.S.Recovery: 2010'2017," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2124, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. João Ricardo Faria, 2004. "The Effects Of Taxes On Labour In A Dynamic Efficiency Wage Model," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 286-297, September.
    4. Galeotti, Marzio & Maccini, Louis J. & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2005. "Inventories, employment and hours," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 575-600, April.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1984. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hart, Robert A. & Malley, James R., 2000. "Marginal cost and price over the business cycle: comparative evidence from Japan and the United States," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 547-569, September.
    7. Yi Wen, 2005. "Labor hoarding and inventories," Working Papers 2005-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Xiaoying Ju & Huizhao Li & Peng Yao & Jianxu Liu & Fei Chen & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of Industrial Land Price Distortion on Overcapacity in the Textile Industry and Its Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Lapatinas, Athanasios, 2009. "Labour adjustment costs: Estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model using panel data for Greek manufacturing firms," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 521-533, October.
    10. Liao, Shushu, 2021. "The effect of credit shocks in the context of labor market frictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D., 2001. "Flexibility versus Commitment in Personnel Management," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 515-556, December.
    12. J. Bradford De Long, 1990. "Interpreting Procyclical Productivity Movements: Evidence from a Cross-Nation Cross-Industry Panel," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _136, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    13. Darby, Julia & Hart, Robert A. & Vecchi, Michela, 2001. "Wages, work intensity and unemployment in Japan, UK and USA," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 243-258, May.
    14. Robert A. Hart & J Malley (University of Glasgow), 1996. "Labor Productivity and the Cycle," Working Papers 9613, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    15. Molina-Domene, Maria, 2018. "Labor specialization as a source of market frictions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91703, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Craighead, William D., 2009. "Real rigidities and real exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 135-147, February.
    17. Christopher L. House & Jing Zhang, 2012. "Layoffs, Lemons and Temps," NBER Working Papers 17962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Maria Molina-Domene, 2018. "Labor specialization as a source of market frictions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1580, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    19. Yihao Tian & Lijin Ding & Bin Yang & Feng Peng, 2022. "The Effects of De-Capacity Policy on Steel and Coal Firms’ Profitability: Evidence from China’s Listed Companies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.
    20. Wen, Yi, 2003. "On the Optimal Volume of Labor Hoarding," Working Papers 03-14, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    21. Julia Darby & Robert A Hart, "undated". "Wages, Productivity and Work Intensity in the Great Depression," Working Papers 2002_7, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jul 2002.
    22. Ray C. Fair, 2018. "Explaining the slow U.S. recovery: 2010–2017," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 184-194, October.
    23. Faria, Joao & Jellal, Mohamed, 2009. "Dynamic of Employment and Wages Incentives," MPRA Paper 17183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Matthew S. Goldberg & Thomas P. Frazier, 1994. "Employment and utilization of engineers among defense contractors," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(7), pages 853-874, December.
    25. Zhang, Yanfang & Zhang, Ming & Liu, Yue & Nie, Rui, 2017. "Enterprise investment, local government intervention and coal overcapacity: The case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 162-169.
    26. Yang, Qing & Hou, Xiaochao & Zhang, Lei, 2018. "Measurement of natural and cyclical excess capacity in China's coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 270-278.
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  50. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 707, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  51. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  52. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. McKenzie, C. R., 1992. "Money demand in an open economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 176-198, June.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 2105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  53. Ray C. Fair, 1981. "A Comment on Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz Lecture," NBER Working Papers 0716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Robert S. Chirinko, 1985. "The Ineffectiveness of Effective Tax Rates on Business Investment," NBER Working Papers 1704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  54. Ray C. Fair, 1981. "Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," NBER Working Papers 0696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    1. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 507-535, June.
    2. Helliwell, John F. & Padmore, Tim, 1985. "Empirical studies of macroeconomic interdependence," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1107-1151, Elsevier.
    3. Ronald J. Shadbegian, 1998. "Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Affect Local Government Budgets? Evidence From Panel Data," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 118-136, March.

  55. Ray C. Fair, 1981. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages amongCountries," NBER Working Papers 0677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Arash Habibi, 2019. "Non-linear impact of exchange rate changes on U.S. industrial production," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Joaquín Pi Anguita, 1990. "Política macroeconómica en uniones monetarias," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 14(2), pages 213-224, May.
    3. Helliwell, John F. & Padmore, Tim, 1985. "Empirical studies of macroeconomic interdependence," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1107-1151, Elsevier.
    4. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 1998. "Extraneous Shocks and International Linkage of Business Cycles in a Two-Country Monetary Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-16, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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    6. Jaime R. Marquez, 1984. "Oil price effects in theory and practice," International Finance Discussion Papers 237, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Miller, Norman C., 1995. "Towards a loanable funds/amended-liquidity preference theory of the exchange rate and interest rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 225-245, April.

  56. Ray C* Fair, 1980. "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," NBER Working Papers 0538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Carl E. Walsh, 1982. "The effects of alternative operating procedures on economic and financial relationships," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 133-180.

  57. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    8. Coenen, Günter & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Smets, Frank, 2020. "Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment," Working Paper Series 2352, European Central Bank.
    9. Horváth, Michal & Senaj, Matúš & Siebertová, Zuzana & Švarda, Norbert & Valachyová, Jana, 2019. "The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 171-184.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helliwell, John F. & Padmore, Tim, 1985. "Empirical studies of macroeconomic interdependence," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1107-1151, Elsevier.

  59. Ray C. Fair & William R. Parke, 1979. "Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 519, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1989. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 921, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Augustine Arize & Steven Shwiff, 1998. "The black market exchange rate and demand for money in sixteen developing countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 128-143, May.
    3. Phillips, Peter C.B., 1980. "On the Consistency of Non-Linear FIML," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 573, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1983. "Non-linear regression models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 333-389, Elsevier.
    5. Benjamin M. Friedman & V. Vance Roley, 1985. "Aspects of Investor Behavior Under Risk," NBER Working Papers 1611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  60. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 480, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    2. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1990. "Mode predictors in nonlinear systems with identities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 317-326, October.
    3. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Papers 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconometric Modelling: An Application to the UK Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 345, CESifo.
    6. Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander, 1984. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 703, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Standard errors of forecasts in dynamic simulation of nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 22657, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1983.
    8. Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Estimating vector autoregressions using methods not based on explicit economic theories," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).
    9. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1982. "Evaluating forecast uncertainty due to errors in estimated coefficients: empirical comparison of alternative methods," MPRA Paper 22559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ray C. Fair, 1992. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1004, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
    12. Dobrescu, Emilian & Pauna, Bianca, 2007. "Stochastic simulations on the Romanian macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 35723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    14. Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1984. "Evaluating Forecast Uncertainty in Econometric Models: The Effect of Alternative Estimators of Maximum Likelihood Covariance Matrix," MPRA Paper 28806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 1995. "Comparing probability forecasts derived from theoretical distributions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 147-157, March.
    16. Arthur Hsu & Ronald T. Wilcox, 2000. "Stochastic Prediction in Multinomial Logit Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1137-1144, August.
    17. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Weihs, Claus, 1986. "Parametric and nonparametric Monte Carlo estimates of standard errors of forecasts in econometric models," MPRA Paper 29120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    19. Calzolari, Giorgio & Bianchi, Carlo & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1982. "Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 28846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Brillet, Jean-Louis, 1987. "Measuring forecast uncertainty : A review with evaluation based on a macro model of the French economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 211-227.
    22. Simes, Richard M, 1988. "Macroeconometric Model Evaluation, with Special Reference to the NIF88 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 29-56, Supplemen.
    23. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Analysis and measurement of the uncertainty in Mini-Dms model for the French economy," MPRA Paper 29056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1345, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.
    25. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1987. "La varianza delle previsioni nei modelli econometrici [Forecast variance in econometric models]," MPRA Paper 23866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Bianchi, Carlo & Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1984. "Analyse et mesure de l'incertitude en prevision d'un modele econometrique. Application au modele mini-DMS [Analysis and measurement of forecast uncertainty in an econometric model. Application to m," MPRA Paper 22565, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 1984.
    27. Cuong Le Van & Pierre Malgrange & Michel Deleau, 1984. "Stabilisation efficace des systèmes économiques en présence d'incertitude : expérimentation avec une maquette du modèle DMS," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(3), pages 507-536.
    28. Mariano, Roberto S., 1985. "Finite-Sample Properties Of Stochastic Predictors In Nonlinear Systems: Some Initial Results," Economic Research Papers 269232, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    29. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
    30. Calzolari, Giorgio, 1979. "Stochastic simulation experiments on Model 5 of Bonn University," MPRA Paper 24456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio, 1983. "Confidence intervals of forecasts from nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 29025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Phillips, Robert F., 1996. "Forecasting in the presence of large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1581-1608.
    33. Garratt A. & Lee K. & Pesaran M.H. & Shin Y., 2003. "Forecast Uncertainties in Macroeconomic Modeling: An Application to the U.K. Economy," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 829-838, January.
    34. Pierre Malgrange & Silvia Mira d'Ercole, 1993. "Erreurs de prévision ex ante et ex post," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 135-138.
    35. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 2105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2007. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook from historical forecasting errors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-60, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
    38. Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
    39. David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    40. Brillet, Jean-Louis & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1986. "Coherent optimal prediction with large nonlinear systems: an example based on a French model," MPRA Paper 29057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Ray C. Fair, 1991. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 3(Sum).

  61. Ray C. Fair, 1978. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 492, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2001. "Dynamic Co-movements of Stock Indices: The Emerging Middle Eastern and the United States Markets," Penn CARESS Working Papers ddffc4204cf90a8523fb64134, Penn Economics Department.
    2. Costantini, Mauro & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 176, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Bessler, David A., 1985. "The Forecast In Risk Analysis," Regional Research Projects > 1985: S-180 Annual Meeting, March 24-27, 1985, Charleston, South Carolina 271795, Regional Research Projects > S-180: An Economic Analysis of Risk Management Strategies for Agricultural Production Firms.
    5. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Landon, Stuart, 1995. "Testing aggregate neutrality with heterogeneous sectors," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 131-148.
    9. S. Grossman & L. Weiss, "undated". "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-80, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    10. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    12. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    13. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
    14. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Evidence on Nominal Wage Rigidity from a Panel of U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 650-668, November.
    16. John A. James, 1985. "Shifts in the Nineteenth-Century Phillips Curve Relationship," NBER Working Papers 1587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Robert J. Barro, 1980. "Intertemporal Substitution and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 0490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric results," NBER Working Papers 0789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Simes, Richard M, 1988. "Macroeconometric Model Evaluation, with Special Reference to the NIF88 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 29-56, Supplemen.
    20. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Optimal Price and Inventory Adjustment in an Open-Economy Model of the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 887-914.
    21. Bandyopadhyay, Subir, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Cross-Category Competition: Theory, Tests and Applications," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 85(4), pages 468-479.
    22. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Interest-Rate Smoothing," NBER Working Papers 2581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Ali F. Darrat, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy: Some Tests Based on the Fisher Equation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 211-219, Jul-Sep.
    24. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "A Beginner'S Guide To Vector Autoregression," Staff Papers 13527, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    25. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
    26. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1990. "Deflating the case for zero inflation," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Sum), pages 2-11.
    27. Francisco F. R. Ramos, 1996. "VAR Priors: Success or lack of a decent macroeconomic theory?," Econometrics 9601002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
    29. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Manfred Deistler & Klaus Neusser, 2004. "Prognose uni- und multivariater Zeitreihen," Diskussionsschriften dp0401, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

  62. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 459, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-199, Supplemen.
    2. Wen-Qi Duan, 2012. "Modelling the Evolution of National Economies Based on Input–Output Networks," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 145-155, February.
    3. Peter B. Dixon & K.R. Pearson & Mark R. Picton & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2002. "Rational Expectations for Large Models: A Practical Algorithm and a Policy Application," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-81, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Are Tax Cuts Really Expansionary?," NBER Working Papers 1443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
    7. David Lipton & James M. Poterba & Jeffrey Sachs & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Multiple Shooting in Rational Expectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1989. "The Finnish rational expectations QMED model: estimation, dynamic properties and policy results," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/1989, Bank of Finland.
    9. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    10. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. T. A. Wilson, 1985. "Lessons of Resession," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 693-722, November.
    12. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
    13. Ayub, Mehar, 2000. "Stock market consequences of macro economic fundamentals," MPRA Paper 442, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
    14. Paul A. Anderson, 1978. "Rational expectations forecasts from nonrational models," Staff Report 19, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    15. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    16. John B. Taylor, 1982. "The Role of Expectations in the Choice of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1988. "Rational expectations in a macromodel: Some comparative analyses with Finnish data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/1988, Bank of Finland.
    18. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    19. Mehar, Ayub, 2006. "Flow of portfolio investment among the Muslim countries: modelling and possibilities," MPRA Paper 18592, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2007.
    20. Lall B. Ramrattan, 1999. "The Decline of Rental Completions in the U. S. Housing Market: 1970–1994," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 35-46, March.
    21. Cappelen, Adne, 1996. "Testing macroeconometric models : Ray C. Fair, (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1994) ISBN 0-674-87503-6," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1809-1813.
    22. Peter McAdam, 1998. "A Pedagogical Note on the Long Run of Macro Economic Models," Studies in Economics 9807, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    23. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.

  63. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 446, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    2. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ohlsson, H., 1990. "Job Creation Measures As Activist Fiscal Policy: An Empirical Analysis Of Policy Reaction Behavior," Papers 1990d, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    5. Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 833R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1988.
    6. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 452, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 0517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1991. "In search of the liquidity effect," International Finance Discussion Papers 403, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.
    11. Peter J. Boettke & Alexander W. Salter & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "Money as meta-rule: Buchanan’s constitutional economics as a foundation for monetary stability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 529-555, September.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 2022. "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2340, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Katrin Woelfel & Christoph S. Weber, 2014. "Searching for the FED's Reaction Function," Working Papers 154, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    14. Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2021.
    15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1981. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," NBER Working Papers 0693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-13.
    17. Jean C. H. Loo, 1988. "Common Stock Returns, Expected Inflation, And The Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(2), pages 165-172, June.
    18. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    19. Andries Brandsma & J. Pijpers, 1985. "Coordinated strategies for economic cooperation between Europe and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 121(4), pages 661-681, December.
    20. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2010. "Simple and Robust Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ray C. Fair, 2020. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2260, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    23. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    24. Kia, Amir, 2010. "Overnight monetary policy in the United States: Active or interest-rate smoothing?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 378-391, March.
    25. Amir Kia, 2005. "Overnight Monetary Policy in the United States: Active or Interest-Rate Smoothing?," Carleton Economic Papers 05-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
    26. Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The Taylor Rule and its Aftermath: Elements for an Interpretation along Classical-Keynesian lines," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP59, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    27. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.
    28. Anton, Roman, 2015. "Monetary Development and Transmission in the Eurosystem," MPRA Paper 67323, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2015.
    29. Ray Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2409, Yale School of Management.
    30. Ray Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2483, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    31. Ray C. Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1525, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    32. Ray C. Fair, 2022. "A note on the fed’s power to lower inflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 56-63, April.

  64. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 465, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Mäki, Tuomo & Virén, Matti, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Coordination in OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 160, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    2. VirÉn, Matti, 2000. "Fiscal Policy, Automatic Stabilisers and Policy Coordination in EMU," Discussion Papers 744, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Jacob A. Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1987. "The International Transmission of Fiscal Expenditures and Budget Deficits in the World Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka (ed.), Economic Policy in Theory and Practice, chapter 2, pages 51-100, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Virén, Matti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Automatic Stabilisers and Policy Coordination in EMU," Discussion Papers 204, VATT Institute for Economic Research.

  65. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 451, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 452, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomic environment for U.S. agricultural policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2561m38d, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    3. Jacques Mélitz, 1982. "Jusqu'à quel point doit-on simplifier la modélisation du taux de change ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 675-694.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 2105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  66. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Maggie E. C. Jones & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Michael Ksawery Popiel, 2014. "A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support," CREATES Research Papers 2014-23, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Manuel Bagues & Berta Esteve-Volart, 2016. "Politicians’ Luck of the Draw: Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1269-1294.
    3. Robert R. Prechter Jr. & Deepak Goel & Wayne D. Parker & Matthew Lampert, 2012. "Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections," SAGE Open, , vol. 2(4), pages 21582440124, November.
    4. Néstor Rubiano Páez, 2011. "Ciclo político de los negocios y tamaño municipal: Colombia 1989-2008," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(25), pages 105-136, July-Dece.
    5. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "Read My Lips? Taxes and Elections," EconPol Working Paper 71, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Henrik Jordahl, 2006. "An economic analysis of voting in Sweden," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 251-265, June.
    7. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April.
    8. Walker A. Pollard, 1983. "Presidential Elections: Cyclical and Distributional Economic Effects," Public Finance Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 217-236, April.
    9. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Gerald T. Fox, 2009. "Partisan Divide on War and the Economy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 905-933, December.
    11. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    12. Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.
    13. Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
    14. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Other publications TiSEM c90fa717-7883-4c40-8c54-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
    16. Utteeyo Dasgupta & Chandan Kumar Jha & Sudipta Sarangi, 2021. "Persistent Patterns Of Behavior: Two Infectious Disease Outbreaks 350 Years Apart," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(2), pages 848-857, April.
    17. Quinlan, Stephen & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2021. "Forecasting government support in Irish general elections: Opinion polls and structural models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1654-1665.
    18. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
    19. Jacques DEFOURNY, 1979. "Des Cycles Économiques Aux Cycles Politiques," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 43-56, October.
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    21. Karl DeRouen Jr & Uk Heo, 2001. "Presidents and Defense Contracting, 1953-1992," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 18(2), pages 251-267, February.
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    23. George Ward, 2020. "Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 504-518, July.
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    28. Eric J. Brunner & Stephen L. Ross & Ebonya L. Washington, 2008. "Economics and Ideology: Causal Evidence of the Impact of Economic Conditions on Support for Redistribution and Other Ballot Proposals," NBER Working Papers 14091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    39. Larcinese, Valentino & Puglisi, Riccardo & Snyder, Jr., James M., 2007. "Partisan bias in economic news: evidence on the agenda-setting behavior of U.S. newspapers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25185, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    49. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
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    51. Caroline Le Pennec & Vincent Pons, 2023. "How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 703-767.
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    219. Benjamin Fordham, 1998. "Partisanship, Macroeconomic Policy, and U.S. Uses of Force, 1949-1994," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(4), pages 418-439, August.
    220. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    221. Labonne, Julien, 2016. "Local political business cycles: Evidence from Philippine municipalities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 56-62.
    222. Cáceres, Neila & Malone, Samuel W., 2013. "Forecasting leadership transitions around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 575-591.
    223. Mixon, Franklin Jr. & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2004. "Examining legislative challenges to central bank autonomy: macroeconomic and agency costs models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 415-428.
    224. Amihai Glazer, 2015. "Handicaps to improve reputation," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(3), pages 485-496, July.
    225. Gourley, Patrick & Khamis, Melanie, 2023. "It is not easy being a Green party: Green politics as a normal good," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    226. Adam Honig, 2020. "Elections and Capital Flows," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 471-503, March.
    227. T. Scott Findley, 2015. "Hyperbolic Memory Discounting and the Political Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 5556, CESifo.
    228. Ulrich Lächler, 1984. "The political business cycle under rational voting behavior," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 411-430, January.
    229. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
    230. Drazen, Allan & Brender, Adi, 2003. "Where Does the Political Budget Cycle Really Come From?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    231. Sami Alpanda & Adam Honig, 2009. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1365-1389, October.
    232. Robert P. Inman, 1985. "Does Deductibility Influence Local Taxation?," NBER Working Papers 1714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    233. Berg, Joyce E. & Nelson, Forrest D. & Rietz, Thomas A., 2008. "Prediction market accuracy in the long run," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 285-300.
    234. William T. Chittenden, 2020. "Political Parties In Power And U.S. Economic Performance," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 14(2), pages 21-36.
    235. Robert Michaels, 1986. "Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 113-124, January.

  67. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 434, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Langebaek R. & Diego Vásquez E., 2007. "Determinantes de la actividad innovadora en la industria manufacturera colombiana," Borradores de Economia 2313, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Maanen, T. van, 1985. "The gravity model reconsidered," Serie Research Memoranda 0018, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Danúbia R. Cunha & Jose Angelo Divino & Helton Saulo, 2022. "On a log-symmetric quantile tobit model applied to female labor supply data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(16), pages 4225-4253, December.
    4. Masuda, Kazuto, 2021. "Trade Policy and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Application of the Tobit Model," SocArXiv njzk3, Center for Open Science.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    6. Lu, Zeng-Hua, 2009. "Covariate selection in mixture models with the censored response variable," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 2710-2723, May.
    7. Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "The Dynamics of Household Travel Time Expenditures and Car Ownership Decisions," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2t18b4q9, University of California Transportation Center.
    8. Golob, Thomas F., 1996. "A Model of Household Demand for Activity Participation and Mobility," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt00g9770f, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Cox, Thomas L. & Ziemer, Rod F. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1984. "Household Demand For Fresh Potatoes: A Disaggregated Cross-Sectional Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, July.
    10. Golob, Thomas F. & McNally, Michael G., 1997. "A model of activity participation and travel interactions between household heads," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 177-194, June.
    11. Wansbeek, T.J. & Kapteyn, A.J., 1990. "Estimation of the error-components model with incomplete panels," Other publications TiSEM cce8fcd9-a6dc-4cab-83b7-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Golob, Thomas F., 1990. "The Dynamics of Household Travel Time Expenditures and Car Ownership Decisions," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1676t0bp, University of California Transportation Center.
    13. Chandran, Ram, 2004. "A Tobit Analysis of WIC Children's Consumption of Pyramid Group Foods," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19998, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Eoghan O'Neill, 2022. "Type I Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Censored Outcome Regression," Papers 2211.07506, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

  68. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. C. Simon Fan & Hon‐Kwong Lui, 2004. "Extramarital Affairs, Marital Satisfaction, and Divorce: Evidence from Hong Kong," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(4), pages 442-452, October.
    2. Alan Collins, 2000. "Surrender Value of Capital Assets: The Economics of Strategic Virginity Loss," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 193-201, October.
    3. Eiji Yamamura, 2016. "Smokers’ Preference for Divorce and Extramarital Sex," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2016/05, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    4. Holloway, Garth J. & Mazzocchi, Mario & Perali, Carlo Federico, 2006. "New Results On Censored Regression with Applications to Transactions Costs, Household Decisions and Food Purchases," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25293, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Danúbia R. Cunha & Jose Angelo Divino & Helton Saulo, 2022. "On a log-symmetric quantile tobit model applied to female labor supply data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(16), pages 4225-4253, December.
    6. Kumar, Anjani & Kumar, Pramod & Sharma, Alakh N., 2012. "Crop Diversification in Eastern India: Status and Determinants," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(4), pages 1-17.
    7. Batabyal, Amitrajeet & Beladi, Hamid, 2016. "Cheating on Your Spouse: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," MPRA Paper 75758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jeon, Mi-Sun & Lee, Jang-Ho, 2020. "Estimation of willingness-to-pay for premium economy class by type of service," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Samuel Cameron & Alan Collins, 2003. "Estimates of a Model of Male Participation in the Market for Female Heterosexual Prostitution Services," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 271-288, November.
    10. Danúbia R. Cunha & Jose Angelo Divino & Helton Saulo, 2024. "Zero-Adjusted Log-Symmetric Quantile Regression Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(5), pages 2087-2111, May.
    11. Cameron, Samuel & Collins, Alan, 2000. "Random utility maximiser seeks similar: An economic analysis of commitment level in personal relationships," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-90, February.
    12. Wongsurawat, Winai, 2007. "Determinants of public reactions to Concorde test flights at the John F. Kennedy International Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 371-375.
    13. Kuroki, Masanori, 2013. "Opposite-sex coworkers and marital infidelity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 71-73.
    14. Lu, Zeng-Hua, 2009. "Covariate selection in mixture models with the censored response variable," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 2710-2723, May.
    15. J.K. Whitaker, 1983. "The Limitations of the Economic Point of View," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 83-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    16. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, 2013. "New facts on infidelity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 458-462.
    17. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 434, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    18. Ian Smith, 2012. "Reinterpreting the economics of extramarital affairs," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 319-343, September.
    19. Kamel Jedidi & Venkatram Ramaswamy & Wayne Desarbo, 1993. "A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 375-394, September.
    20. Kevin A. Hunter, 1984. "Marital Dissolution: An Economic Analysis," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 28(1), pages 63-68, March.
    21. Jirjahn, Uwe & Ottenbacher, Martha, 2020. "Big Five Personality Traits and Sex," GLO Discussion Paper Series 720, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    22. Sheena Murray, 2020. "How broadband and cell phone access have impacted marriage and divorce in the US," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 431-459, June.
    23. QI Li & Jeff Racine, 2004. "Predictor relevance and extramarital affairs," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 533-535.
    24. Alan Collins, 2011. "Sexual Leisure Markets," Chapters, in: Samuel Cameron (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Leisure, chapter 24, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Bloze, Gintautas & Skak, Morten, 2014. "Owning, letting and demanding second homes," Discussion Papers on Economics 1/2014, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    26. Chilingerian, Jon A., 1995. "Evaluating physician efficiency in hospitals: A multivariate analysis of best practices," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 548-574, February.
    27. Lee, Myoung-jae, 2012. "Treatment effects in sample selection models and their nonparametric estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 317-329.
    28. Fadel Hamid Hadi ALHUSSEINI, 2017. "New Bayesian Lasso in Tobit Quantile Regression," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(6), pages 213-229, June.
    29. Bruce Elmslie & Edinaldo Tebaldi, 2008. "So, What Did You Do Last Night? The Economics of Infidelity," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 391-410, August.
    30. Douglas A. Smith & Robert Brame, 2003. "Tobit Models in Social Science Research," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 31(3), pages 364-388, February.
    31. Samuel Cameron, 2002. "The Economics Of Partner Out Trading in Sexual Markets," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 195-222, October.
    32. Weiren Wang, 1997. "Tobit analysis with a natural non-response rate," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 191-194.
    33. Iñaki Mauleón, 1987. "Problemas prácticos en el tratamiento econométrico de datos "cross-section"," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 11(1), pages 41-94, January.
    34. Pablo Mart�nez-Camblor & Carlos Carleos & Norberto Corral, 2011. "Powerful nonparametric statistics to compare k independent ROC curves," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 1317-1332, May.
    35. Hafiz M. Muddasar Jamil Shera & Irum Sajjad Dar, 2014. "Addressing Corner Solution Effect for Child Mortality Status Measure: An Application of Tobit Model," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(12), pages 218-225, December.
    36. Xuemei Liu, 2008. "An effective punishment scheme to reduce extramarital affairs: an economic approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 167-175, April.
    37. Garth John Holloway, 2020. "Sustainable Land-Use Pathway Ranking and Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-31, September.
    38. Franklin G. Mixon & Benno Torgler & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2017. "Scholarly impact and the timing of major awards in economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1837-1852, September.
    39. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    40. Ana María Martínez-Rodríguez & Antonio Conde-Sánchez & María José Olmo-Jiménez, 2019. "A new approach to truncated regression for count data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 103(4), pages 503-526, December.
    41. Bilias, Yannis & Florios, Kostas & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "Exact computation of Censored Least Absolute Deviations estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 584-606.
    42. Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, 2018. "Marital Infidelity: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 227-233, March.
    43. Luca Pedini, 2024. "Bayesian regression models in gretl: the BayTool package," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(7), pages 3547-3578, December.
    44. Steven Yen, 1999. "Nonparticipation and corner solution: extramarital affairs reconsidered," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(7), pages 443-445.
    45. Chandran, Ram, 2004. "A Tobit Analysis of WIC Children's Consumption of Pyramid Group Foods," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19998, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    46. John Quiggin, 1987. "Egoistic Rationality and Public Choice: A Critical Review of Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(1), pages 10-21, March.
    47. Eoghan O'Neill, 2022. "Type I Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Censored Outcome Regression," Papers 2211.07506, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    48. Samuel Cameron (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Economics of Leisure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13469.
    49. Taggert J. Brooks & Kristen Monaco, 2013. "Your cheatin’ heart: joint production, joint consumption and the likelihood of extramarital sex," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 272-275, February.
    50. Curt Wells, 2003. "Retesting Fair's (1978) model on infidelity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 237-239.
    51. Jemimah Gaite Pizarro & Rowena Gaspay-Fernandez, 2015. "Estranged Wife, Other Man’s Beloved," SAGE Open, , vol. 5(1), pages 21582440145, January.
    52. Collins, Alan & Judge, Guy, 2008. "Client participation in paid sex markets under alternative regulatory regimes," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 294-301, December.

  69. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 420, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 2003. "A Classification System for Economic Stochastic Control Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 114, Society for Computational Economics.
    2. Ray Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2590, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.
    5. Ronald Davis & Dallas Denery & David Kendrick & Raman Mehra, 2012. "Introduction to the Works of Rodney C. Wingrove: Engineering Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(1), pages 71-76, January.
    6. Kendrick, David A., 2005. "Stochastic control for economic models: past, present and the paths ahead," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 3-30, January.

  70. Ray C. Fair, 1975. "On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 397, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Cited by:

    1. Jacques DEFOURNY, 1979. "Des Cycles Économiques Aux Cycles Politiques," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 43-56, October.
    2. Peter Bloch, 1986. "The politico-economic behavior of authoritarian governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 117-128, January.
    3. Franco Modigliani, 1977. "The monetarist controversy; or, should we forsake stabilization policies?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr suppl, pages 27-46.
    4. David Kendrick, 1976. "Applications of Control Theory to Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 2, pages 171-190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Frey, Bruno S., 1976. "Politico-economic models and cycle," Discussion Papers, Series I 83, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    6. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    7. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    8. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "The impact of political and non-political officials on the financial management of local governments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 943-962.
    9. Nathaniel Beck, 1978. "Social choice and economic growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 33-48, September.
    10. Ramser, Hans Jürgen, 1977. "Anmerkungen zur Theorie politischer Konjunkturzyklen," Discussion Papers, Series I 105, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    11. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1976. "An empirical study of politico-economic interaction in the US," Discussion Papers, Series I 76, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    12. Resce, Giuliano, 2022. "Political and Non-Political Officials in Local Government," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp22079, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    13. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.

  71. Ray C. Fair, 1973. "A Comparison of FIML and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model," NBER Working Papers 0015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. David A. Belsley & Kent D. Wall, 1976. "Estimation of Econometric Model Using Nonlinear Full Information Maximum Likelihood: Preliminary Computer Results," NBER Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Articles

  1. Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Testing price equations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1424-1437, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    4. Ray Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2492, Yale School of Management.
    5. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2022. "Inflation dynamics in an emerging market: The case of South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 262-271.
    6. Malikane, Christopher, 2013. "A New Keynesian Triangle Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 43548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "Inflation dynamics and the cost channel in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 42688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.
    9. Karagiannides, Gabriel, 2018. "Exploring the Determinacy Dynamics in an Open Economy," MPRA Paper 89268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hossein Hassani & Abdol S. Soofi & Anatoly Zhigljavsky, 2013. "Predicting inflation dynamics with singular spectrum analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(3), pages 743-760, June.
    11. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
    12. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The Microfoundations of the Keynesian Wage-Price Spiral," MPRA Paper 42923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    13. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.
    14. Malikane Christopher, 2023. "A Traditional Nominal Wage Phillips Curve: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(324), pages 108-121, March.

  2. Fair Ray C, 2008. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Fair Ray C, 2007. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Fair Ray C, 2005. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Fair, Ray C, 2005. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 645-660, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Ray Fair, 2003. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 245-256, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Fair, Ray C., 2003. "Shock effects on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 307-341, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Fair Ray C, 2002. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Actual Federal Reserve policy behavior and interest rate rules," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 61-72.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Kiley, 2003. "Why Is Inflation Low When Productivity Growth Is High?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 392-406, July.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2002. "Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1365, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    5. Lee A. Smales, 2013. "The Determinants of RBA Target Rate Decisions: A Choice Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 556-569, December.
    6. Katrin Woelfel & Christoph S. Weber, 2014. "Searching for the FED's Reaction Function," Working Papers 154, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    7. Giuseppe Fontana & Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules: What Are We Learning?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 547-568, July.
    8. Douglas Curtis, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Economic Activity in Canada in the 1990s," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 31(1), pages 59-78, March.
    9. Luís, Pacheco, 2004. "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: a tentative model," MPRA Paper 6579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alan G. Ahearne & Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Haltmaier & Steven Scott MacDonald, 2002. "Preventing deflation: lessons from Japan's experience in the 1990s," International Finance Discussion Papers 729, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Adrienne A. Kearney, 2003. "The Changing Probability of a Monetary Policy Response to Inflation and Employment Announcements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 565-574, Fall.
    12. Wesche, Katrin, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    13. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane Ihrig, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 315-338.
    14. Joseph E. Gagnon & Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through," International Finance Discussion Papers 704, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  13. Ray C. Fair, 2000. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 64-71, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2002. "A Reappraisal of the Inflation-Unemployment Tradeoff," Working Papers 479, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Alcino F. Camara-Neto & Matías Vernengo, 2012. "Keynes after Sraffa and Kaldor: Effective Demand, Accumulation and Productivity Growth," Chapters, in: Thomas Cate (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Claire Sensoli & Francisco Serranito & Thierry Latreille & Olivier Passet & Odile Chagny & Hélène Baudchon & Catherine Mathieu & Christine Rifflart & Hervé Péléraux & Henri Sterdyniak & Paola Veroni, 2000. "Tous ensemble ? Perspectives 2000-2001 pour l'économie mondiale," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01218109, HAL.
    4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Héctor & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Phillips Curves and unemployment dynamics: a critique and a holistic perspective," Kiel Working Papers 1441, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Vaona, Andrea & Snower, Dennis, 2008. "Increasing returns to scale and the long-run Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 83-86, July.
    6. Département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE & Henri Sterdyniak & Hélène Baudchon & Odile Chagny & Thierry Latreille & Catherine Mathieu & Olivier Passet & Christine Rifflart & Claire Sensoli & Paola Ve, 2000. "Tous ensemble ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 73(1), pages 7-113.
    7. Graham, Liam & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," IZA Discussion Papers 3477, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Pierre Fortin, 2016. "A Stable 4% Inflation Could Get Canadians One Half Million More Jobs," Cahiers de recherche 1604, CIRPEE.
    9. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter Von zur Muehlen, 2002. "Avoiding Nash inflation: Bayesian and robust responses to model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Thomas B. King & James Morley, 2005. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Wage and Price Phillips Curves An empirical analysis of destabilizing wage-price spirals," Economics Papers 2003-W16, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.
    13. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    14. Abhiruchi Rathi & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "The Unnatural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on the Barro-Gordon and Natural Rate Paradigms," Working Papers 2020-191, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    15. T. D. Stanley, 2004. "Does unemployment hysteresis falsify the natural rate hypothesis? a meta‐regression analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 589-612, September.
    16. Liam Graham & Dennis J. Snower, 2008. "Hyperbolic Discounting and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 427-448, March.
    17. Ray Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2590, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    18. Ahrens, Steffen & Snower, Dennis J., 2014. "Envy, guilt, and the Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 69-84.
    19. Lundborg, Per & Sacklén, Hans, 2001. "Is There a Long Run Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off in Sweden?," Working Paper Series 173, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Wolfgang Pollan, 2012. "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
    21. Chen Pu & Flaschel Peter, 2006. "Measuring the Interaction of Wage and Price Phillips Curves for the U.S. Economy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-35, December.
    22. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, September.
    23. Fredrik Carlsen, 2006. "Election cycles, party ideology and incumbent popularity: theory and evidence for OECD economies," Working Paper Series 7906, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    24. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    25. Katos, A. & Pallis, D. & Katsouli, E., 2004. "System Estimates of Cyclical Unemployment and Cyclical Output in the 15 European Union Member-States, 1961-1999," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(4), pages 5-26.
    26. Kim, Kun Ho & Park, Suna, 2016. "Inference and Forecasting Based on the Phillips Curve," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 38(2), pages 1-20.
    27. Gong, Gang, 2016. "Two Stages of Economic Development," ADBI Working Papers 628, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    28. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "What do price equations say about future inflation?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 118-128, July.
    29. Janet L. Yellen, 2004. "Stabilization policy: a reconsideration," Speech 1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    30. Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
    31. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2008. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 492-516, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    32. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "Anomalous empirical evidence on money long-run super-neutrality and the vertical long-run Phillips curve," Working Papers 17/2015, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    33. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Matías Vernengo, 2013. "Is Inflation Targeting Operative in an Open Economy Setting?," Working Papers wp324, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    34. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
    35. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    36. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1577, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.
    37. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    38. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2287, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    39. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
    40. Mamadou Bobo Diallo & Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Christian R. Proano, 2011. "Reconsidering the Dynamic Interaction between Real Wages and Macroeconomic Activity," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(1), pages 77-93, April.
    41. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    42. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    43. Stefano, Fasani, 2016. "Long-run Unemployment and Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 352, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 18 Oct 2016.
    44. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: V Housing Investment Cycles, Private Debt Accumulation and Deflation," Working Paper Series 97, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    45. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1300, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2002.
    47. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    48. Jorge E. Restrepo L., 2008. "Estimating the NAIRU for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 31-46, August.
    49. Agnès Festré & Pierre Garrouste, 2012. "The ‘Economics of Attention’: A New Avenue of Research in Cognitive Economics," GREDEG Working Papers 2012-12, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    50. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2012. "Faith-based Macroeconomics: A Critique of Recent Developments in NAIRU Estimation," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Domenica Tropeano (ed.), Employment, Growth and Development, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    51. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2004. "Dinámica macroeconómica y la curva de Philips bajo diversos supuestos sobre el mecanismo de ajuste salarial," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 19(2), pages 181-210.
    52. Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2010. "A new test of the inflation-real marginal cost relationship: ARDL bounds approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 122-125, August.
    53. Peter Flaschel & Reiner Franke, 2000. "An Old-Keynesian Note on Destabilizing Price Flexibility," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 273-283.
    54. Ray Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2483, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    55. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The Microfoundations of the Keynesian Wage-Price Spiral," MPRA Paper 42923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    56. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Applying Disequilibrium Growth Theory: Debt Effects and Debt Deflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 714, Society for Computational Economics.
    57. Lundborg, Per & Sacklén, Hans, 2003. "Low-Inflation Targeting and Unemployment Persistence," Working Paper Series 188, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
    58. Pu Chen & Peter Flaschel, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 115-142, February.
    59. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2006. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 361, Central Bank of Chile.
    60. Schreiber, Sven & Wolters, Jurgen, 2007. "The long-run Phillips curve revisited: Is the NAIRU framework data-consistent?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 355-367, June.
    61. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    62. Gang Gong & Jian Gao, 2006. "The Independent Monetary Policy under the Fixed Exchange Regime," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 517, Society for Computational Economics.
    63. GONG Gang & GAO Jian, 2008. "Monetary policy under fixed exchange regime: A study on the future monetary policy in China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 3(2), pages 169-208, June.
    64. Ray C. Fair, 2022. "A note on the fed’s power to lower inflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 56-63, April.

  14. Fair, Ray C., 1999. "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Dany Lang & Mark Setterfield, 2012. "Faith-based Macroeconomics: A Critique of Recent Developments in NAIRU Estimation," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Domenica Tropeano (ed.), Employment, Growth and Development, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.

  15. Ray C. Fair, 1999. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 58-62, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Gentle, Paul F. & Paudel, Krishna P. & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2007. "Real wages, real interest rates and the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Canadian data," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(3), pages 319-331.
    2. Rudy Fichtenbaum, 2003. "Is there a natural level of capacity utilization?," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 45-62, September.
    3. Croitoru, Lucian, 2011. "Three Unemployment Rates Relevant To Monetary Policy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 213-238, September.
    4. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    5. Timothy J. Bartik, 2000. "Group Wage Curves," Upjohn Working Papers 00-63, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    6. Ferri, Piero & Greenberg, Edward & Day, Richard H., 2001. "The Phillips curve, regime switching, and the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 23-37, September.
    7. Franz, Wolfgang, 2000. "Neues von der NAIRU?," ZEW Discussion Papers 00-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

  16. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.

    Cited by:

    1. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April.
    2. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series 415, CESifo.
    3. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2010. "Flexible pensions for politicians," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 103-124, October.
    4. Fox, Gerald & Phillips, Earl N., 2003. "Interrelationship between presidential approval, presidential votes and macroeconomic performance, 1948-2000," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 411-424, September.
    5. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Other publications TiSEM c90fa717-7883-4c40-8c54-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
    7. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
    8. Mandel Philipp & Süssmuth Bernd, 2015. "Public Education, Accountability, and Yardstick Competition in a Federal System," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1679-1703, October.
    9. Leonardo Martinez, 2008. "A theory of political cycles," Working Paper 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2007. "Business cycle and political election outcomes: Evidence from the Chilean democracy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 125-136, July.
    11. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2012. "Party cues in elections under multilevel governance: Theory and evidence from US states," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2012-107, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    12. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
    13. Donald J. Lacombe & Timothy M. Shaughnessy, 2007. "Accounting for Spatial Error Correlation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(4), pages 480-499, July.
    14. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," Research Department Publications 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric & Snowberg, Erik, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Sriya Iyer & Anand Shrivastava, 2015. "Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1561, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pástor and Veronesi (2020)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2279, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2021.
    18. Dorn, David & Autor, David & Hanson, Gordon & Majlesi, Kaveh, 2016. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers 11511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Renaud Foucart & Marjorie Gassner & Emilie Van Haute, 2012. "Une typologie des résultats électoraux basée sur le comportement des électeurs volatiles en Belgique," Cahiers du CEVIPOL/Brussels Working papers 128886, Centre d'étude de la vie politique (CEVIPOL) of the Université Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Filip Palda & Kristian Palda, 1998. "The impact of campaign expenditures on political competition in the French legislative elections of 1993," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 157-174, January.
    21. Ray C. Fair, 2021. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2279, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Sidman, Andrew H. & Mak, Maxwell & Lebo, Matthew J., 2008. "Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 237-258.
    23. Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2009. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 523-536, August.
    24. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    25. Lee, Gi-Eu & Chou, Chang-Erh, 2020. "The Ex Ante Price Information Effect on Water Conservation: A Case Study of Taipei’s Water Tariff Adjustment," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304253, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    26. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
    27. Michael M. Bechtel & Jens Hainmueller, 2011. "How Lasting Is Voter Gratitude? An Analysis of the Short‐ and Long‐Term Electoral Returns to Beneficial Policy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(4), pages 852-868, October.
    28. Paap, R. & van Nierop, J.E.M. & van Heerde, H.J. & Wedel, M. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Alsem, K.J., 2000. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "Don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-33/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    29. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market: Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    30. Alexis Antoniades & Charles W. Calomiris, 2018. "Mortgage Market Credit Conditions and U.S. Presidential Elections," NBER Working Papers 24459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Ahmed, Rashad & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 662-687.
    32. Cerda, Rodrigo & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2008. "Government Subsidies and Presidential Election Outcomes: Evidence for a Developing Country," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2470-2488, November.
    33. Antoniades, Alexis & Calomiris, Charles W., 2020. "Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    34. Jordan, Jerry L. & Luther, William J., 2022. "Central bank independence and the Federal Reserve's new operating regime," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 510-515.
    35. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    36. Robert J. Blendon, 1997. "Bridging the Gap between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 105-118, Summer.
    37. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Argentina," Research Department Publications 3078, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    38. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October.
    39. Dragan Filipovich & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Alma Santillán Hernández, 2018. "Campaign externalities, programmatic spending, and voting preferences in rural Mexico: The case of Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera programme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-27, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    40. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2007. "The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 15910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Hans Gersbach & Oriana Ponta, 2017. "Unraveling short- and farsightedness in politics," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 289-321, March.
    42. Carlos Seixas & Diogo Lourenço, 2024. "On the optimality of policy choices in the face of biased beliefs, retrospective voting and the down-up problem," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 63(2), pages 299-321, September.
    43. Wiesen, Taylor, 2023. "Aggregate earnings and market expectations in United States presidential election prediction markets," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    44. Rebecca Hellerstein, 2007. "Is There a Dead Spot? New Evidence on FOMC Decisions Before Elections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1411-1427, September.
    45. Brown, Lloyd B. & Chappell Jr., Henry W., 1999. "Forecasting presidential elections using history and polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 127-135, April.
    46. Leo Kahane, 2009. "It’s the economy, and then some: modeling the presidential vote with state panel data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 343-356, June.
    47. Antoine Auberger, 2012. "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 329-340, December.
    48. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    49. Burnett, Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 75-89, Spring.
    50. Angelini, Eliana & Foglia, Matteo & Ortolano, Alessandra & Leone, Maria, 2018. "The “Donald” and the market: Is there a cointegration?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 30-37.
    51. Schönenberger, Felix, 2024. "Out of Office, Out of Step? Re-election Concners and Ideological Shirking in Lame Duck Sessions of the U.S. House of Representatives," MPRA Paper 120159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Yin-Siang Huang & Iftekhar Hasan & Ying-Chen Huang & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracts: Does Government Quality Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 157-185, December.
    53. Gourley, Patrick & Khamis, Melanie, 2023. "It is not easy being a Green party: Green politics as a normal good," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

  17. Fair, Ray C. & Howrey, E. Philip, 1996. "Evaluating alternative monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 173-193, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. Fair, Ray C, 1996. "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 431-435, July-Aug..

    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    2. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.

  19. Fair, Ray C, 1994. "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(1), pages 103-118, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael Fusillo & Hercules Haralambides, 2020. "Do carrier expectations indicate industry structure in container shipping? An econometric analysis," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1989. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 921, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1989. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," NBER Working Papers 3102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Diana N. Weymark, 2003. "Economic Structure, Policy Objectives, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy at Low Inflation Rates," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0310, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    5. Tomasz Lyziak, 2016. "Financial crisis, low inflation environment and short-term inflation expectations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 285-300.
    6. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    8. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    9. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    10. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-22.
    11. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    12. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 14, European Central Bank.
    13. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    14. Ray C. Fair, "undated". "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Stein, Sheldon H. & Song, Frank M., 2002. "Vector autoregression and the dynamic multiplier: a historical review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 283-300, June.
    16. Heinemann, Friedrich & Ullrich, Katrin, 2004. "The Impact of EMU on Inflation Expectations," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-01, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Fair, Ray C., 2014. "How might a central bank report uncertainty?," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    19. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1345, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2003.
    20. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    22. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    23. Ray Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2576, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    24. Ray C. Fair, 2012. "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1864, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    25. Ray C. Fair, 2001. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1300, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2002.
    26. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    27. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
    28. Tomasz Łyziak, 2016. "The impact of financial crisis and low inflation environment on short-term inflation expectations in Poland," NBP Working Papers 235, Narodowy Bank Polski.

  21. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 8-18, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 287-293, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Diana N. Weymark, 2003. "Economic Structure, Policy Objectives, and Optimal Interest Rate Policy at Low Inflation Rates," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0310, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    2. William D. Nordhaus, 1994. "Marching to Different Drummers: Coordination and Independence in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1067, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
    5. Patrick Fève, 2005. "Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 147-179.
    6. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Noha Razek, 2023. "Oil and Non-Oil Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s International Competitiveness: Historical Analysis and Policy Simulations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-39, June.
    8. Diana N. Weymark, 2000. "Using Taylor Rules as Efficiency Benchmarks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0043, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2001.
    9. Fakhri Hasanov & Fred Joutz & Muhammad Javid, 2021. "Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Discussion Papers ks--2021-dp09, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    10. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2003. "What to Expect when you are Expecting Rationality: Testing Rational Expectations using Micro Data," Working Papers wp037, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    11. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
    12. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.

  23. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Fair, Ray C., 1992. "Estimation of polynomial distributed lags and leads with end point constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 123-139.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Ray C. Fair & Arnold Zellner (ary), 1992. "The Cowles Commission approach, real business cycles theories, and New- Keynesian economics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 133-157.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-1294, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yudong & Hao, Xianfeng, 2023. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil: What is the role of parameter instability?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Hamid Baghestani, 2006. "An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long‐term interest rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 177-191.
    3. Markku Lanne, 2009. "Properties of Market-Based and Survey Macroeconomic Forecasts for Different Data Releases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2231-2240.
    4. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
    5. Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Further Results on MSFE Encompassing," Working Papers 143, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1747, CESifo.
    7. Peter Christoffersen & Eric Ghysels & Norman Swanson, 2000. "Let's Get "Real" About Using Economic Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1004, Econometric Society.
    8. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Frank A. G. den Butter & Pieter W. Jansen, 2013. "Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 749-765, May.
    10. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Alicia M. Gazely, 2011. "Forecasting The Uk/Us Exchange Rate With Divisia Monetary Models And Neural Networks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 127-152, February.
    11. Demirer, Riza & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying risk aversion and realized gold volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Lamoureux, Christopher G. & Wang, Qin, 2015. "Measuring private information in a specialist market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 92-119.
    13. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    14. Xiaoming Cai & Wouter J. Den Haan & Jonathan Pinder, 2016. "Predictable Recoveries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(330), pages 307-337, April.
    15. B. Onur Tas, 2012. "Why does the Federal Reserve Forecast Inflation Better than Everyone Else?," Working Papers 1207, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    16. Martha A. Misas A. & Enrique López E. & Carlos A. Arango A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández A., 2004. "No-linealidades en la demanda de efectivo en Colombia: las redes neuronales como herramienta de pronóstico," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 10-57, June.
    17. Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options," Papers 95-26, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    18. Lastrapes, William D., 2002. "Comments on 'A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 607-611, December.
    19. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    20. Yaojie Zhang & Qingxiang Han & Mengxi He, 2024. "Forecasting stock market returns with a lottery index: Evidence from China," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1595-1606, August.
    21. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    22. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    23. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    24. Mark T. Leung & An‐Sing Chen & Ruben Mancha, 2009. "Making trading decisions for financial‐engineered derivatives: a novel ensemble of neural networks using information content," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 257-277, October.
    25. Glen Donaldson & Mark Kamstra, 2004. "Volatility forecasts, trading volume, and the ARCH versus option-implied volatility trade-off," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    29. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," CESifo Working Paper Series 3884, CESifo.
    30. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
    31. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 385-402, April.
    32. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
    33. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    34. Zijun Wang, 2010. "Directed graphs, information structure and forecast combinations: an empirical examination of US unemployment rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 353-366.
    35. Lanne, Markku, 2007. "The Properties of Market-Based and Survey Forecasts for Different Data Releases," MPRA Paper 3877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. den Butter, Frank A. G. & Morgan, Mary S., 1998. "What makes the models-policy interaction successful?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 443-475, July.
    37. António Rua & Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2016. "A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data rich environment," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    38. Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2016. "Gold Futures Returns and Realized Moments: A Forecasting Experiment Using a Quantile-Boosting Approach," Working Papers 201645, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    39. Swanson, N.R. & White, H., 1995. "A Models Selection Approach to Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Linear Models and Artificial Neural Networks," Papers 04-95-12, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    40. Bahram Adrangi & Mary Allender, 1998. "Budget deficits and stock prices: International evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 57-66, June.
    41. Weder, Mark, 2001. "The great demand depression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,53, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    42. UÄŸur Åžener & Salvatore Joseph Terregrossa, 2024. "A Transcendental LASSO Function for Combining Machine Learning and Statistical Model Forecasts," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, August.
    43. Liao, Li-Chuan & Chou, Ray Yeutien & Chiu, Banghan, 2013. "Anchoring effect on foreign institutional investors’ momentum trading behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 72-91.
    44. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    45. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    46. Avramov, Doron, 2002. "Stock return predictability and model uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 423-458, June.
    47. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
    48. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
    49. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "VAR-Prognose-Pooling : ein Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Informationsgrundlage der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages .32-40, April.
    51. Ray C. Fair, 1992. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1004, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    52. David, DE LA CROIX & Bo, MALMBERG, 2006. "Growth and Longevity from the Industrial Revolution to the Future of an Aging Society," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    53. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-470, August.
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    56. Domenico J. Marchetti & Giuseppe Parigi, 1998. "Energy Consumption, Survey Data and the Prediction of Industrial Production in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 342, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    57. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
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    60. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Carlos Arango & Juan Nicolás Hernández, 2003. "La Demanda de Efectivo en Colombia: Una Caja Negra a la Luz de las Redes Neuronales," Borradores de Economia 268, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    61. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "Real-Time Nowcasting of GDP: Factor Model versus Professional Forecasters," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
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    63. Ana Filipa Carvalho & Jose Sa da Costa & Jose Assis Lopes, 2006. "A systematic modelling strategy for futures markets volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 819-833.
    64. Hamid Baghestani, 2016. "Interest rate movements and US consumers’ inflation forecast errors: is there a link?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(3), pages 623-630, July.
    65. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON.
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    67. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2010. "Combining disaggregate forecasts or combining disaggregate information to forecast an aggregate," Working Paper Series 1155, European Central Bank.
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    69. Starck, Christian, 1991. "Specifying a Bayesian vector autoregression for short-run macroeconomic forecasting with an application to Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/1991, Bank of Finland.
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    72. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
    73. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2023. "Discovering the drivers of stock market volatility in a data-rich world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    75. Cai, Xiaoming & Den Haan, Wouter J. & Pinder, Jonathan, 2016. "Predictable recoveries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65188, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    78. Michael Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous Threshold Autoregressive Models: Estimation, Testing and Forecasting," Department of Economics Working Papers 2006-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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    172. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    173. Ray Fair & John Oster, 2002. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2377, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
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  28. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-331, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  29. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  30. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  31. Fair, Ray C., 1988. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a macroeconometric model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  32. Fair, Ray C, 1987. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 473-480, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  33. Fair, Ray C, 1985. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 239-245, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  34. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  35. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  36. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 507-535, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Fair, Ray C, 1982. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 322-325, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt, 2021. "Read My Lips? Taxes and Elections," EconPol Working Paper 71, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Anna Lo Prete & Elsa Fornero, 2017. "“Voting in the aftermath of a pension reform: the role of financial literacy”," CeRP Working Papers 171, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
    3. Adi Brender & Allan Drazen, 2004. "Political Budget Cycles in New versus Established Democracies," NBER Working Papers 10539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tansey, Michael & Raju, Sudhakar & Stellern, Michael, 2005. "Price controls, trade protectionism and political business cycles in the U.S. steel industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1097-1109, December.
    5. S. Brock Blomberg, 1994. "A model of voter choice in a life cycle setting," Research Paper 9404, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Kächelein, Holger & Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini, 2010. "Elections related cycles in publicly supplied goods in Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 71, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Richard C. K. Burdekin, 1988. "Economic Performance and the Determination of Presidential Elections in the U.S," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 32(2), pages 71-75, October.
    8. David Mitchell, 2023. "Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 188-209, June.
    9. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2003. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results," Working Papers 0321, Economic Research Forum, revised Jul 2003.
    10. Kouvavas, Omiros, 2013. "Political Budget Cycles Revisited, the Case for Social Capital," MPRA Paper 57504, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Sep 2013.
    11. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
    12. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2021. "The impact of political uncertainty on institutional ownership," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Stephen E. Haynes & Joe A. Stone, 1994. "Why Did Economic Models Falsely Predict A Bush Landslide In 1992?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 123-130, April.
    14. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    15. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    16. Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Rijsbergen, David R. & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle & Vrugt, Evert B., 2014. "Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-69.
    17. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2009. "Corruption And Elections: An Empirical Study For A Cross‐Section Of Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 179-200, July.
    18. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Tien, Charles, 2008. "Forecasting presidential elections: When to change the model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 227-236.
    19. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    20. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    21. Brown, Lloyd B. & Chappell Jr., Henry W., 1999. "Forecasting presidential elections using history and polls," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 127-135, April.
    22. Muhammad Shahid Akram & Toseef Azid, 2006. "Economics of Regaining Office: The Case of Pakistan (1947-2005)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 913-923.
    23. Mixon, Franklin Jr. & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2004. "Examining legislative challenges to central bank autonomy: macroeconomic and agency costs models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 415-428.
    24. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2019. "Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, February.
    25. Sami Alpanda & Adam Honig, 2009. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1365-1389, October.

  38. Fair, Ray C, 1981. "Estimated Effects of the Oct. 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 160-165, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Carl E. Walsh, 1982. "The effects of alternative operating procedures on economic and financial relationships," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 133-180.

  39. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 355-378, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  40. Fair, Ray C, 1980. "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1381-1391, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Gajda, Jan B. & Markowski, Aleksander, 1998. "Model Evaluation Using Stochastic Simulations: The Case of the Econometric Model KOSMOS," Working Papers 61, National Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1985. "Asymptotic properties of dynamic multipliers in nonlinear econometric models," MPRA Paper 24401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1994. "Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 235, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Ray C. Fair, 1988. "VAR Models as Structural Approximations," NBER Working Papers 2495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Calzolari, Giorgio & Bianchi, Carlo & Corsi, Paolo & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1982. "Uncertainty of policy recommendations for nonlinear econometric models: some empirical results," MPRA Paper 28846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Eswaramoorthy, K., 1991. "U.S. livestock production and factor demand: a multiproduct dynamic dual approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010523, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Ray C. Fair, 1992. "Estimates of the Bias of Lagged Dependent Variable Coefficient Estimates in Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1005, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.

  41. Fair, Ray C. & Parke, William R., 1980. "Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 269-291, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 86-91, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Barro & Mark Rush, 1980. "Unanticipated Money and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 23-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  43. Fair, Ray C., 1979. "A model of the balance of payments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 25-46, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  44. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-718, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  45. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-552, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  46. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 411-417, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Dakila, Jr., 2001. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 1-36, December.
    2. Ali F. Darrat, 1985. "Does Anticipated Fiscal Policy Matter? The Italian Evidence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 13(3), pages 339-352, July.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  47. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 289-309, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  48. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 45-61, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  49. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1165-1179, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  50. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  51. Fair, Ray C, 1977. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(7), pages 1723-1727, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  52. Fair, Ray C & Kelejian, Harry H, 1974. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 177-190, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Zilinskas, Julius & Bogle, Ian David Lockhart, 2006. "Balanced random interval arithmetic in market model estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1367-1378, December.
    2. Seyedeh Asieh H. Tabaghdehi, 2018. "Market collusion and regime analysis in the US gasoline market," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Max Jerrell, 2000. "Applications Of Public Global Optimization Software To Difficult Econometric Functions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 161, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Mayer, Walter J. & Dorsey, Robert E., 1998. "Maximum score estimation of disequilibrium models and the role of anticipatory price-setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Tensie Steijvers & Wim Voordeckers, 2009. "Collateral And Credit Rationing: A Review Of Recent Empirical Studies As A Guide For Future Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 924-946, December.
    6. Harish Mani & V. Pandit & R. Prabhakar Rao, 2013. "Disequilibrium in the Indian Registered Manufacturing Sector-A Simulated Maximum Likelihood Analysis," Working papers 222, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Gary Smith & William C. Brainard, 1979. "Disequilibrium Models of Financial Institutions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 535, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Ancot, J.-P. & Iwema, R. & Paelinck, J. & den Broeder, G., 1980. "Test d’une hypothèse d’investissement à écarts multiples," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 56(1), pages 40-59, janvier-m.
    9. Juan Luis Vega, 1992. "El papel del crédito en el mecanismo de transmisión monetaria," Estudios Económicos, Banco de España, number 48.
    10. Tomohiro Ando, 2018. "Merchant selection and pricing strategy for a platform firm in the online group buying market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 209-230, April.
    11. Edwige Burdeau, 2015. "Assessing dynamics of credit supply and demand for French SMEs, an estimation based on the Bank Lending Survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Lall B. Ramrattan, 1999. "The Decline of Rental Completions in the U. S. Housing Market: 1970–1994," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 35-46, March.
    13. Eromenko, Igor & Lisenkova, Katerina, 2006. "Impact of joining the WTO on Ukrainian ferrous metallurgy: subsidies vs. antidumping, is there really a trade-off?," MPRA Paper 67477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2014. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Banks' Resilience to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 032014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Debrecht, Dennis Michael, 1981. "Lending limits and the availability of credit to agricultural borrowers," ISU General Staff Papers 198101010800008411, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "A smooth likelihood simulator for dynamic disequilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 257-294, June.

  53. Fair, Ray C, 1974. "An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-303, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
    2. Amir D. Aczel & Timothy J. Fullam, 1986. "Time Series Analysis of U.S. Consumption of Motor Gasoline," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 30(1), pages 21-27, March.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 1053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Valadkhani, A., 2005. "Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
    6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 0845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.
    8. Pierre-Alain Muet, 1979. "La modélisation macroéconomique : une étude de la structure et de la dynamique des modèles macroéconométriques," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(1), pages 3-62.

  54. Fair, Ray C, 1973. "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 261-277, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Andreas A. Andrikopoulos & James A. Brox, 1985. "Predicting Intra-Urban Residential Location Preferences: An Application of the Dynamic Generalized Linear Expenditure System," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 22(4), pages 329-337, August.
    2. Thomas F. Cooley, 1975. "A Comparison of Robust and Varying Parameter Estimates of a Macro-Econometric Model," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 3, pages 373-388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1974. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 667-677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  55. Fair, Ray C, 1972. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-Regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(4), pages 444-449, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-718, August.
    2. Fazeli, Reza & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Hallgrimsson, Jonas Hlynur, 2016. "Residential energy demand for space heating in the Nordic countries: Accounting for interfuel substitution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1210-1226.
    3. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Limited Information Bayesian Analysis of a Simultaneous Equation with an Autocorrelated Error Term and its Application to the U.S. Gasoline Market," Econometrics 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  56. Fair, Ray C, 1972. "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 207-221, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Lall Ramrattan & Michael Szenberg, 2004. "The Sensitivity Analysis of the FHA Technique of Housing Market Analysis: The Effect of Ratios and Variables, and Their Perturbations on Family and Elderly Demand Estimates," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 48(1), pages 61-88, March.
    2. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Lenarčič, Andreja, 2012. "An alternative method for identifying booms and busts in the euro area housing market," Working Paper Series 1493, European Central Bank.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next \\"bubble\\"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
    4. Philip Arestis & Ana Rosa González-Martínez, 2015. "Residential Construction Activity in OECD Economies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(4), pages 451-474, July.
    5. Lopez, Carmen, 2002. "Modelos econometricos del mercado de la vivienda en las regiones españolas," Economic Development 59, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..
    6. Malpezzi, Stephen & Vandell, Kerry, 2002. "Does the low-income housing tax credit increase the supply of housing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 360-380, December.
    7. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.
    8. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "Housing market cycles – a disequilibrium model and its application to the primary housing market in Warsaw," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 35.
    9. Raymond Y. C. Tse & Bryan D. MacGregor, 1999. "Housing Vacancy and Rental Adjustment: Evidence from Hong Kong," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(10), pages 1769-1782, September.
    10. Raymond Y. C. Tse & James R. Webb, 1999. "Dynamic Equilibrium of the Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 36(13), pages 2361-2373, December.
    11. Ernst Rätzer, 1987. "Mieterschutz und Wohnungsmarkt. Die Mietpreisbeschränkung im schweizerischen Missbrauchsbeschluss," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 123(I), pages 23-45, March.
    12. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lall B. Ramrattan, 1999. "The Decline of Rental Completions in the U. S. Housing Market: 1970–1994," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(1), pages 35-46, March.
    14. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 139-158.
    15. Brzezicka, Justyna & Wisniewski, Radoslaw & Figurska, Marta, 2018. "Disequilibrium in the real estate market: Evidence from Poland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 515-531.

  57. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Dunn, Daniel L. & Lindsay, Bruce E., 1980. "An Econometric Analysis Of The New Hampshire Housing Market," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6, October.
    2. Mark Taylor & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role Of Informational Asymmetries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 113, Royal Economic Society.
    3. Conway, Patrick & Gelb, Alan, 1988. "Oil windfalls in a controlled economy : A fix-price equilibrium analysis of Algeria," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 63-81, February.
    4. Christoph Sax, 2011. "Constraint or choice? Disentangling fertility determinants by switching regressions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(23), pages 723-754.
    5. Harris, James Michael & Blank, Steven C. & Erickson, Kenneth W. & Hallahan, Charles B., 2010. "Off-farm Income and Investments in Farm Assets: A Double Hurdle Approach," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61531, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Riboud, Chris & Rausser, Gordon C., 1981. "Price supports and demand in commodity market modeling," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1n53k4xs, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    7. H.-J. Büttler, 1976. "The Markets for Land, Housing, and Housing Services: An Empirical Study over Time," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 112(IV), pages 619-637, December.
    8. Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Herrera, Santiago & Hurlin, Christophe & Zaki, Chahir, 2012. "Why don't banks lend to Egypt's private sector ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6094, The World Bank.
    10. Nikolay Nenovsky & Evgeni Peev & Todor Yalamov, 2003. "Banks-Firms Nexus under the Currency Board: Empirical Evidence from Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 555, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Mayer, Walter J. & Madden, Gary & Jin, Zhong & Tran, Thien, 2015. "Modelling OECD broadband subscriptions in disequilibrium," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 476-486.
    13. Sunil Kanwar, 2000. "Seasonality and Wage-responsiveness in nonclearing labour markets: Evidence from Indian agriculture," Working papers 80, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    14. Pao-Li Chang & Myoung-jae Lee, 2006. "Protection for Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 18-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    15. Hennig, Christian, 2003. "Clusters, outliers, and regression: fixed point clusters," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 183-212, July.
    16. Ziemer, Rod F. & White, Fred C., 1982. "Equilibrium Versus Disequilibrium In The Market For Non-Fed Cattle," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Nan‐Kuang Chen & Hung‐Jen Wang, 2008. "Identifying the Demand and Supply Effects of Financial Crises on Bank Credit—Evidence from Taiwan," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 26-49, July.
    18. Giuliano Galimberti & Lorenzo Nuzzi & Gabriele Soffritti, 2021. "Covariance matrix estimation of the maximum likelihood estimator in multivariate clusterwise linear regression," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 235-268, March.
    19. Gabriele Perrone & Gabriele Soffritti, 2023. "Seemingly unrelated clusterwise linear regression for contaminated data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 883-921, June.
    20. Zilinskas, Julius & Bogle, Ian David Lockhart, 2006. "Balanced random interval arithmetic in market model estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1367-1378, December.
    21. Danilo Liberati & Giuseppe Marinelli, 2024. "Was Covid-19 a wake-up call on climate risks? Evidence from the greenium," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 832, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    22. Dinghai Xu, 2009. "The Applications of Mixtures of Normal Distributions in Empirical Finance: A Selected Survey," Working Papers 0904, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2009.
    23. Seyedeh Asieh H. Tabaghdehi, 2018. "Market collusion and regime analysis in the US gasoline market," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, December.
    24. Max Jerrell, 2000. "Applications Of Public Global Optimization Software To Difficult Econometric Functions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 161, Society for Computational Economics.
    25. Mayer, Walter J. & Dorsey, Robert E., 1998. "Maximum score estimation of disequilibrium models and the role of anticipatory price-setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-24, August.
    26. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03043350, HAL.
    27. Jae Hong Kim, 2013. "Measuring the Containment and Spillover Effects of Urban Growth Boundaries: The Case of the Portland Metropolitan Area," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 650-675, December.
    28. Kooiman, Peter & Van Dijk, Herman K. & Thurik, A. Roy, 1985. "Likelihood diagnostics and Bayesian analysis of a micro-economic disequilibrium model for retail services," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 121-148.
    29. Holmberg, Ulf, 2012. "Error Corrected Disequilibrium," Umeå Economic Studies 837, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    30. Malpezzi, Stephen & Vandell, Kerry, 2002. "Does the low-income housing tax credit increase the supply of housing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 360-380, December.
    31. Chorng-Huey Wong & Øystein Pettersen, 1979. "Financial programming in the framework of optimal control," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 115(1), pages 20-37, March.
    32. Karmelavičius, Jaunius & Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau, Ieva & Petrokaitė, Austėja Petrokaitė, 2022. "Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 135, European Systemic Risk Board.
    33. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Survey of non-Walrasian disequilibrium economic theory," MPRA Paper 115011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Christophe Hurlin & R. Kierzenkowski, 2004. "Credit Market Disequilibrium in Poland: Can we find what we expect? Non Stationarity and the Min Condition," Post-Print halshs-00257379, HAL.
    35. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Leroux, Véronique & Nicolaï, Jean-Paul, 1993. "Modèles d’investissement : une comparaison internationale des modèles à deux régimes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(2), pages 41-52, juin.
    36. Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and financial technology: an overall view," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1529-1578, May.
    37. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1993. "Testing Game-Theoretic Models of Price Fixing Behaviour," Working Papers _017, Yale University.
    38. Holloway, Garth & Nicholson, Charles & Delgado, Chris & Staal, Steve & Ehui, Simeon, 2004. "A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 97-106, July.
    39. Scott McCarthy & Barry Oliver & Martie-Louise Verreynne, 2017. "Bank financing and credit rationing of Australian SMEs," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(1), pages 58-85, February.
    40. Mouchart, M. & Orsi, R., 2015. "Building a structural model: parameterization and structurality," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2015056, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    41. Tensie Steijvers & Wim Voordeckers, 2009. "Collateral And Credit Rationing: A Review Of Recent Empirical Studies As A Guide For Future Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 924-946, December.
    42. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    43. Raymond Tse & C. W. Ho & S. Ganesan, 1999. "Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 625-633.
    44. Plassard, Romain, 2022. "Diagnosing unemployment: the dual project of the ENSAE's band," MPRA Paper 113584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Oczkowski, Edward, 1998. "The impact of market clearing assumptions and dynamics on demand elasticities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 39-43, April.
    46. Smith Conway, Karen & Kimmel, Jean, 1998. "Male labor supply estimates and the decision to moonlight," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 135-166, June.
    47. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, October.
    48. Philippe Adair & Fredj Fhima, 2014. "Small and Medium-sized Enterprises' Credit Rationing on the Tunisian Bank Credit Market," Post-Print hal-01667356, HAL.
    49. Rouzier, Philippe, 1978. "L’approche séquentielle du déséquilibre dans les modèles de stocks et de flux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 54(2), pages 234-248, avril-jui.
    50. Guy V. G. Stevens, 1976. "Balance of payment equations and exchange rate determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 95, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    51. Patrick Artus, 1984. "Le fonctionnement du marché du crédit : diverses analyses dans un cadre de déséquilibre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(4), pages 591-622.
    52. Felices, Guillermo & Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik, 2008. "Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 354, Bank of England.
    53. Christophe Hurlin & R. Kierzenkowski, 2007. "Credit Market Disequilibrium in Poland: Can we find what we expect? Non stationarity and the Short Side Rule," Post-Print halshs-00257320, HAL.
    54. Michele Loberto & Francesco Zollino, 2016. "Housing and credit markets in Italy in times of crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1087, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    55. Riadh Ben Jelili & Salima Hamouche & Ferhat Mihoubi, 1994. "Le pseudo-maximum de vraisemblance théorique et simulé. Application au cas des modèles de déséquilibre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 149-174.
    56. Duleep, Harriet & Liu, Xingfei, 2015. "How the Demand for Labor May Adapt to the Availability of Labor: A Preliminary Exploration with Historical Data," IZA Discussion Papers 8918, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    57. Karen Smith Conway & Jean Kimmel, 1992. "Moonlighting Behavior: Theory and Evidence," Upjohn Working Papers 92-09, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    58. Graciela Moguillansky, 1994. "Factores Determinantes de las Exportaciones Industriales Brasileñas durante la Década de 1980," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 31(92), pages 3-26.
    59. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Goggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2001. "Empirical macro models under test. A comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 455-474, August.
    60. Lehner, Hansjörg & Möller, Joachim, 1981. "Eine Stabilitätsuntersuchung kurzfristiger Beschäftigungsfunktionen mit Hilfe von switching regressions," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 14(1), pages 39-50.
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    63. Sagarika Mishra & Michael T. Ewing & Holly B. Cooper, 2022. "Artificial intelligence focus and firm performance," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 1176-1197, November.
    64. Theodore Keeler & Teh-wei Hu & Michael Ong & Hai-Yen Sung, 2004. "The US National Tobacco Settlement: the effects of advertising and price changes on cigarette consumption," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(15), pages 1623-1629.
    65. Othar Kordsachia, 2021. "A risk management perspective on CSR and the marginal cost of debt: empirical evidence from Europe," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(6), pages 1611-1643, August.
    66. Finn, Mary G., 1986. "Forecasting the exchange rate: A monetary or random walk phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-193, June.
    67. Mark Irving Lichbach & Ted Robert Gurr, 1981. "The Conflict Process," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(1), pages 3-29, March.
    68. Carl E. Walsh, 1981. "Measurement Error and the Flow of Funds Accounts: Estimates of HouseholdAsset Demand Equations," NBER Working Papers 0732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    69. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1981. "Debt Management Policy, Interest Rates, and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    70. Blackley, Dixie M. & Follain, James R., 1996. "In search of empirical evidence that links rent and user cost," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 409-431, June.
    71. Catherine C. Langlois, 1996. "Do Japanese Automakers Maximize Profits? A Systems Analysis of the Pricing of Automobile Inventories," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 40(2), pages 65-76, October.
    72. Abu Bakkar Siddique, 2016. "Comparative Advantage Defying Development Strategy and Cross Country Poverty Incidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 45-78, December.
    73. Agustin Velasquez, 2023. "Production Technology, Market Power, and the Decline of the Labor Share," IMF Working Papers 2023/032, International Monetary Fund.
    74. Filip Abraham & Ellen Brock, 2003. "Sectoral employment effects of trade and productivity in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 223-238.
    75. Sebastian Arango & M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1979. "Price Expectations, Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates, and Demand for Money in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 0359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Jochen Hartwig, 2013. "Ist Lohnzurückhaltung gut oder schlecht für das Schweizer Wirtschaftswachstum?," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(2), pages 33-45, June.
    77. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1756, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    78. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1978. "Further Evidence On Expectations And The Demand for Money During the German Hyperinflation," NBER Working Papers 0289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    79. Zhang, Zhiwen & Makin, Anthony J. & Bai, Qinxian, 2016. "Yen internationalization and Japan's international reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 452-466.
    80. George Chalamandaris & Leonidas S. Rompolis, 2021. "Recovering the market risk premium from higher‐order moment risks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), pages 147-186, January.
    81. Aurelio Mattei, 1981. "Un modèle économétrique pour le Canton du Valais," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 117(IV), pages 605-616, December.
    82. Clinton Shiells, 1989. "Competition and complementarity between U.S. imports from developed and newly industrializing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(1), pages 114-128, March.
    83. James M. Poterba, 1992. "Taxation and Housing Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Canada-U.S. Tax Comparisons, pages 275-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    84. Lovell, Michael C., 1996. "Macroeconomic implications of S,s versus accelerator finished goods inventory strategies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-3), pages 55-64, August.
    85. Fercovic, Juan & Foster, William & Melo, Oscar, 2015. "Residential Water Consumption in Chile: Economic Development and Climate Change," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211631, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    86. Elizabeth Webster, 1999. "Labour Market Programs and the Australian Beveridge Curve: 1978 to 1997," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(4), pages 405-416, December.
    87. Langlois, Catherine C., 1997. "For Profit or for Market Share? The Pricing Strategy of Japanese Automakers on the U.S. Market," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-81, March.
    88. Palley, Thomas I., 1995. "The demand for money and non-GDP transactions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 145-154, May.
    89. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1980. "The Monetary Mechanism in the Light of Rational Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 75-116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Chapters

  1. Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 25, pages 89-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Fair, Ray C., 1996. "Computational methods for macroeconometric models," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 143-169, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Winter, Joachim, 1997. "Ökonometrische Analyse diskreter dynamischer Entscheidungsprozesse," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    2. Buda, Rodolphe, 2005. "Numerical Analysis in Econom(etr)ic Softwares: the Data-Memory Shortage Management," MPRA Paper 9145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.

  3. Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 157-178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
    2. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," Working Papers hal-04141569, HAL.
    3. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    4. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
    5. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Multivariate Threshold Models: TVARs and TVECMs," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(1), May.
    6. Urooj Khan & N. Bugra Ozel, 2016. "Real Activity Forecasts Using Loan Portfolio Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 895-937, June.
    7. Dury, K. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "Fiscal Policy in EMU: Simulating the Operation of the Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers eco2000/3, European University Institute.
    8. Eryilmaz, Derya & Homans, Frances, 2013. "Uncertainty in Renewable Energy Policy: How do Renewable Energy Credit markets and Production Tax Credits affect decisions to invest in renewable energy?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150018, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    10. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    11. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    13. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
    14. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
    15. Ana Beatriz C. Galvão, 2006. "Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 463-487, May.

  4. Fair, Ray C., 1986. "Evaluating the predictive accuracy of models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1979-1995, Elsevier.

    Cited by:

    1. Neil R. Ericsson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1990. "Evaluating the predictive performance of trade-account models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Jaime R. Marquez, 1988. "Income and price elasticities of foreign trade flows: econometric estimation and analysis of the U.S. trade deficit," International Finance Discussion Papers 324, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Covey, Ted & Bessler, David A., 1991. "The Role of Futures in Daily Forward Pricing," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271282, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Schellhorn, Martin & Winker, Peter, 1994. "Stochastic simulations of a macroeconomic disequilibrium model for West Germany," Discussion Papers, Series II 235, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    5. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    6. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
    7. Calzolari, Giorgio, 2012. "Econometric notes," MPRA Paper 36765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. William L. Helkie & Peter Hooper, 1989. "U.S. external adjustment: progress and prospects," International Finance Discussion Papers 345, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    10. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.
    11. Chen, Dean T. & Bessler, David A., 1988. "Forecasting Monthly Cotton Price: Structural and Time Series Approaches," Staff Reports 257920, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    12. Simes, Richard M, 1988. "Macroeconometric Model Evaluation, with Special Reference to the NIF88 Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 29-56, Supplemen.
    13. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2020. "Prequential forecasting in the presence of structure breaks in natural gas spot markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2363-2384, November.
    14. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    15. Juan Pedro Muñoz Miguel & Ana Elizabeth García Sipols & Clara Simón de Blas & Francisca Anguita Rodríguez, 2021. "A Model to Evaluate the Effect of Urban Road Pricing on Traffic Speed and Congestion in Madrid City Center and Its Surrounding," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    16. Masud Alam, 2024. "Output, employment, and price effects of U.S. narrative tax changes: a factor-augmented vector autoregression approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1421-1471, October.
    17. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  5. Ray C. Fair, 1974. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 667-677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Dasgupta, Madhuchhanda & Mishra, SK, 2004. "Least absolute deviation estimation of linear econometric models: A literature review," MPRA Paper 1781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andy C W Chui & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 2022. "Momentum, Reversals, and Investor Clientele [Illiquidity and stock returns: Cross-section and time-series effects]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 217-255.
    3. Franco Peracchi, 1988. "Robust Estimators of Regression," UCLA Economics Working Papers 476, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Edwige Burdeau, 2015. "Assessing dynamics of credit supply and demand for French SMEs, an estimation based on the Bank Lending Survey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. J.B. Burbidge & L. Magee & A.L. Robb, "undated". "Cohort, Year and Age Effects in Canadian Wage Data," Canadian International Labour Network Working Papers 13, McMaster University.
    6. Mastronardi, Nicola & O'Leary, Dianne P., 2007. "Fast robust regression algorithms for problems with Toeplitz structure," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 1119-1131, October.
    7. Dehnel Grażyna, 2016. "M-Estimators in Business Statistics," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 17(4), pages 749-762, December.

  6. Ray C. Fair, 1974. "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 135-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. McCarthy & Carl Palash, 1977. "The Use of Almon- and Other Dummy Variable Procedures to Increase the Efficiency of Maximization Algorithms in Economic Control," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 2, pages 225-229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 1974. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 667-677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  7. Gregory C. Chow & Ray C. Fair, 1973. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-Regressive Residuals," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 1, pages 17-28, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-718, August.
    2. Palm, F.C. & Zellner, A., 1978. "Large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems," Serie Research Memoranda 0010, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. M. Ishaq Nadiri & Mark Schankerman, 1979. "The Structure of Production, Technological Change, and the Rate of Growth of Total Factor Productivity in the Bell System," NBER Working Papers 0358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1983. "Non-linear regression models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 333-389, Elsevier.
    5. Wilson, William W. & Wilson, Wesley W. & Koo, Won W., 1987. "Intermodal Competition and Pricing in Grain Transportation: A Description and Comparison of Methods," Agricultural Economics Reports 23194, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.

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