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The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules

In: Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms

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  • John B. Taylor

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

This paper shows that different models of the monetary transmission mechanism lead to surprisingly similar choices about monetary policy rules. In particular, simple rules in which the interest rate reacts to inflation and real output seem to be robust to many different views about how monetary policy works. In models of small open economies—where the monetary transmission mechanism has a relatively strong exchange rate channel—the policy rule should also adjust to the exchange rate, but the gains from such exchange rate rules over rules that react only to inflation and output are small. The results suggest the need for more research on both the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and on policy rules that take account of exchange rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • John B. Taylor, 2002. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 2, pages 021-046, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v04c02pp021-046
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    3. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    4. Ather Maqsood Ahmed & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2011. "The Economics of Inflation, Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rule, and Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 213-232, September.
    5. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.
    6. Regős, Gábor, 2013. "Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra [Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 670-702.
    7. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    8. Warwick J. McKIBBIN, 2006. "Environmental Consequences of Rising Energy Use in China," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 157-174, June.
    9. Devasmita Jena & Ishika Kataruka, 2022. "Monetary Response to Oil Price Shock in Asian Oil Importing Countries: Evaluation of Inflation Targeting Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 809-825, December.
    10. Rossi Júnior, José Luiz, 2009. "Identification of monetary policy shocks and its effects: FAVAR methodology for the Brazilian economy," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 29(2), December.
    11. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
    12. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-341, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Michal Jurek & Pawel Marszalek, 2015. "Policy alternatives for the relationship between ECB monetary and financial policies and new member states," Working papers wpaper112, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. POPESCU Iulian Vasile, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules For European Monetary Union Acceding Countries," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 8(2), pages 108-122, August.
    15. Francisco Rosende, 2002. "La Nueva Síntesis Keynesiana: Análisis e Implicancias de Política Monetaria," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(117), pages 203-233.
    16. Ziegler, Christina, 2012. "Monetary policy under alternative exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 104, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    17. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    18. Jamshaid ur Rehman & Khalil Ahmad & Jawaria Arif, 2022. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in BRICS Countries: A Comparative Response with the USA," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 23-34, December.
    19. Fernando Lefort & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Indexation, Inflation and Monetary Policy: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Fernando Lefort & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Serie (ed.),Indexation, Inflation and MOnetary Policy, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 1, pages 001-018, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Rudan Wang & Bruce Morley & Javier Ordóñez, 2016. "The Taylor Rule, Wealth Effects and the Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 282-301, May.
    21. Dina Cakmur Yildirtan & Selin Sarili, 2017. "Panel Data Analysis of Monetary Transmission Mechanism for European Union Countries," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 42-56, July.
    22. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    23. Schepp, Zoltán & Abaligeti, Gallusz & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "Időben változó Taylor-szabály a hazai monetáris politika jellemzésére [A time-varying parameter Taylor rule for Hungarian monetary policy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-43.
    24. Mete Han Yagmur, 2016. "Monetary Policy Response to Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1392-1399.
    25. Ralf Fendel, 2004. "Perspektiven und Grenzen der Verwendung geldpolitischer Regeln," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(2), pages 169-192, May.

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