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A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series

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  • Dag Kolsrud

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  • Dag Kolsrud, 2015. "A Time‐Simultaneous Prediction Box for a Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 675-693, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:34:y:2015:i:8:p:675-693
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    1. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
    2. Klaus Göggelmann & Peter Winker & Martin Schellhorn & Wolfgang Franz, 2000. "Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations: An application to policy simulations using a disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960-1994," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 247-259.
    3. Òscar Jordà & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2010. "Path forecast evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 635-662.
    4. Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 844-866, October.
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    6. Hong, Yili & Escobar, Luis A. & Meeker, William Q., 2010. "Coverage probabilities of simultaneous confidence bands and regions for log-location-scale distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(7-8), pages 733-738, April.
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    9. John P. Nolan & Nalini Ravishanker, 2009. "Simultaneous prediction intervals for ARMA processes with stable innovations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 235-246.
    10. Kim, Jae H., 2004. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregression using asymptotically mean-unbiased estimators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-97.
    11. Bo Yang & John E. Kolassa, 2004. "Smooth and Accurate Multivariate Confidence Regions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1072-1081, December.
    12. Siu Hung Cheung & Ka Ho Wu & Wai Sum Chan, 1998. "Simultaneous prediction intervals for autoregressive-integrated moving-average models: A comparative study," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 297-306, September.
    13. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
    14. Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
    15. Fair Ray C, 2003. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
    17. Michael H. Neumann & Efstathios Paparoditis, 2008. "Simultaneous confidence bands in spectral density estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 95(2), pages 381-397.
    18. Landon, Joshua & Singpurwalla, Nozer D., 2008. "Choosing a Coverage Probability for Prediction Intervals," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 62, pages 120-124, May.
    19. Peter Hall & Andrew Rieck, 2001. "Improving coverage accuracy of nonparametric prediction intervals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(4), pages 717-725.
    20. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    21. Anil K. Ghosh & Probal Chaudhuri, 2005. "On Maximum Depth and Related Classifiers," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 32(2), pages 327-350, June.
    22. McKeague, Ian W. & Zhao, Yichuan, 2006. "Width-scaled confidence bands for survival functions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 327-339, February.
    23. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    24. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham & Arve Hetland, 2002. "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(15), pages 409-454.
    25. Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2013. "Constructing narrowest pathwise bootstrap prediction bands using threshold accepting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 221-233.
    26. Dag Kolsrud, 2007. "Time-simultaneous prediction band for a time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 171-188.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Staszewska-Bystrova, Anna & Winker, Peter, 2020. "Constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of VAR models – A review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 69-83.
    2. Farooq Akram & Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management," Working Papers No 5/2016, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Håvard Hungnes, 2018. "Encompassing tests for evaluating multi-step system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 871, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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