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Ageing, property prices and money demand

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  • Kiyohiko Nishimura
  • Elod Takáts

Abstract

When the baby boomers joined the workforce and started saving, money supply and property prices entered a rising trajectory. We conclude that demography was the long-run driver of this process, basing our argument on data from 22 advanced economies for the 1950-2010 period. According to our lifecycle model, large working-age populations saved for their old age by investing in property and broad money instruments, such as deposits. In the past, savings activity by baby boomers drove up property prices and also increased demand for money. As baby boomers retire, these dynamics will go into reverse. Falling demand for savings, including money and deposits, might hinder banks in their efforts to collect deposits and thereby bring down excessively high loan-to-deposit ratios. Our model also confirms that monetary stability contributes to long-run property price stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko Nishimura & Elod Takáts, 2012. "Ageing, property prices and money demand," BIS Working Papers 385, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:385
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    Cited by:

    1. Gevorgyan, Kristine, 2019. "Do demographic changes affect house prices?," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 305-320, December.
    2. Ye Jin Heo, 2018. "Population aging and housing prices: who are we calling old?," NBP Working Papers 288, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Yoshihiro Tamai & Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 48-74, Fall.
    5. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Hettihewa, Samanthala & Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2018. "Does an aging population influence stock markets? Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 142-158.
    8. Shimizu, Chihiro & Deng, Yongheng & Kawamura, Yasuhito & Nishimura, Kiyohiko, 2016. "Analysis of policy options to address Japan's declining population, shrinking birthrate, and aging society," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 33, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Chihiro Shimizu & Yongheng Deng & Tomoo Inoue & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2024. "Demographics Outlook, Credit Conditions, and Property Prices," Working Papers e198, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    10. Tamai, Yoshihiro & Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G., 2017. "Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very Long Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 65, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura, 2016. "Three "Seismic Shifts" in the Global Economy and Policy Challenges," CARF F-Series CARF-F-379, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," Working Papers e068, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    13. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Shimizu, Chihiro & Yasumoto, Shinya & Asami, Yasushi & Clark, Terry Nichols, 2014. "Do Urban Amenities Drive Housing Rent?," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 9, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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