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Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States

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  • Peter Flaschel
  • Göran Kauermann
  • Willi Semmler

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how the labour and product markets interact in determining as outcome a generalized reduced‐form price Phillips curve. For the labour market we consider a wage Phillips curve and for the product market a price Phillips curve. We estimate separately the wage and price Phillips curves for the USA, using ordinary least squares, non‐parametric estimation and three‐stage least squares techniques. The finding is that wages are always more flexible than prices with respect to their respective demand pressure and that price inflation responds somewhat more to a medium‐run cost pressure than does wage inflation. The implications for macroeconomic stability are demonstrated. We also show—as a link between product and labour markets—that employment is related to output as Okun's law states. In comparing linear and non‐linear estimates of the wage and price Phillips curves we find furthermore that for some relationships non‐linearities are important while not for others. Although overall the non‐linear estimates tend to confirm our linear estimates, non‐linearities in some relationships of the Phillips curve are important as well.

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  • Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:58:y:2007:i:4:p:550-581
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-999X.2007.00283.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Tavani & Peter Flaschel & Lance Taylor, 2010. "Estimated Non-linearities & Multiple Equilibria in a Model of Distributive-Demand Cycles," SCEPA working paper series. 2010-6, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. De Nicola, Giacomo & Fritz, Cornelius & Mehrl, Marius & Kauermann, Göran, 2023. "Dependence matters: Statistical models to identify the drivers of tie formation in economic networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 351-363.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Giovanni Dosi & Roberto Gabriele, 2005. "Towards an evolutionary interpretation of aggregate labor market regularities," Springer Books, in: Uwe Cantner & Elias Dinopoulos & Robert F. Lanzillotti (ed.), Entrepreneurships, the New Economy and Public Policy, pages 223-252, Springer.
    4. Jürgen Kromphardt & Camille Logeay, 2011. "Flattening of the Phillips Curve: Estimations and consequences for economic policy," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 43-67.
    5. Ryunosuke Sonoda, 2021. "The stabilizing effect of fiscal policies on the dynamics of effective demand and income distribution in Japan," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 385-405, September.
    6. T. Asada & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the wage price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 262, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Christian Proaño, 2009. "(De-)Stabilizing two-country macroeconomic interactions in an estimated model of the U.S. and the Euro Area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 421-443, December.
    8. Josheski, Dushko & Bardarova, Snezana, 2013. "Causal relationship between wages and prices in R. Macedonia: VECM analysis," MPRA Paper 48179, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    10. Göran Kauermann, 2006. "Nonparametric models and their estimation," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 137-152, March.
    11. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    12. Shogo Ogawa, 2022. "Neoclassical stability and Keynesian instability: A two‐sector disequilibrium approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 481-513, May.
    13. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Matsuyama, Jun & Sako, Kazumitsu, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of the wage gap between regular and non-regular employment and of minimum wages," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 61-72.
    14. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Christian R. Proaño, 2007. "Keynesian AD-AS, Quo Vadis?," Working Paper Series 151, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Asada, Yasukuni, 2020. "Quantifying Goodwin Growth Cycles with Minimum Wage Shares," MPRA Paper 99926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Buffie, Edward F., 2013. "The Taylor principle fights back, Part I," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2771-2795.
    18. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Chen, Pu & Semmler, Willi, 2024. "Wage – price dynamics and financial market in a disequilibrium macro model: A Keynes – Kaldor – Minsky modeling of recession and inflation using VECM," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 433-452.
    20. Lídia Brochier, 2020. "Conflicting‐claims and labour market concerns in a supermultiplier SFC model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 566-603, July.
    21. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
    22. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Asada, Yasukuni & Sonoda, Ryunosuke, 2024. "Effects of Minimum Wage Share and Wage Gap Reduction on Cyclical Fluctuation: A Goodwin Approach," MPRA Paper 121695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. C. Chiarella & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage-Price Spiral:Estimating a Baseline Disequilibrium Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 149, Society for Computational Economics.
    24. Josheski, Dushko & Lazarov, Darko & Fotov, Risto & Koteski, Cane, 2011. "Causal relationship between wages and prices in UK: VECM analysis and Granger causality testing," MPRA Paper 34095, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Ryunosuke Sonoda, 2014. "Price and Nominal Wage Phillips Curves and the Dynamics of Distribution in Japan," Discussion papers e-14-009, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.

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