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A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change

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  • Stephen K. McNees

Abstract

This study suggests that U.S. monetary policy has been influenced by forecasts of and past experience with three broad factors: inflation, economic activity, and the monetary aggregates. The influence of each factor has varied, however, within this common theme. In the past 22 years at least two specific changes have occurred: the October 1979 shift to greater emphasis on a narrow measure of money and a shift in the early 1980s from M1 targeting to M2. ; The author models monetary policy econometrically, testing the influence of numerous factors on monetary policy and investigating whether a formal model can capture variations in these factors and in the policy instrument. The study also tests the influence of a number of other factors that are often thought to have an impact on monetary policy, such as measufes Of fiscal policy, exchange rates, and stock prices, as well as the President and Fed Chairman and the political party in power. The results indicate that monetary policy does not react systematically to these other factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function: continuity and change," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1992:i:nov:p:3-13
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    8. Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "Modeling the Fed: a forward- looking monetary policy reaction function," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-8.
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    Cited by:

    1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 82(Nov), pages 39-61.
    2. Charles L. Evans & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Can VAR's describe monetary policy?," Working Paper Series WP-98-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 2022. "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2340, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    6. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S & Tootell, Geoffrey M B, 2003. "Identifying the Macroeconomic Effect of Loan Supply Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 931-946, December.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1728, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2010.
    8. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    9. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    10. Menzie Chinn & William Maloney, 1998. "Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-74.
    11. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1996. "A Price Target for U.S. Monetary Policy? Lessons from the Experience with Money Growth Targets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 77-146.
    12. Ray Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2409, Yale School of Management.
    13. Florens, C. & Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Working papers 83, Banque de France.
    14. Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 1999. "Whose monetary policy is it anyway?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 217-235, February.
    15. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    16. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2003. "Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 817-839, May.
    17. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecoci, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, June.
    18. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
    19. Vanderhart, Peter G., 2000. "The Federal Reserve's Reaction Function under Greenspan: An Ordinal Probit Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 631-644, October.
    20. Ray Fair, 2009. "Has Macro Progressed?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2409, Yale School of Management.
    21. Goodhart Charles A.E., 2005. "The Monetary Policy Committee's Reaction Function: An Exercise in Estimation," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, August.
    22. Chappell, Henry Jr. & Havrilesky, Thomas M. & McGregor, Rob Roy, 1995. "Policymakers, institutions, and central bank decisions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 113-136, May.

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