IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrn/journl/y2021i4p380-396.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Shocks and Aggregate Welfare in Sub-Saharan African Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin

    (Department of Economics, Edo University Iyamho, Edo State, Nigeria)

  • Victoria Nkiruka Ishiwu

    (Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria)

Abstract

This research investigates the outcome of various macroeconomic shocks on the welfare of Sub-Saharan African countries. Data on real private per capita consumption expenditure as a measure of welfare, terms of trade, RGDP per capita, unemployment rate, inflation, government expenditure, and official development assistance were used for the time 1980 to 2019 on ten less-developed countries in Sub- Saharan Africa. The PVAR estimation method was used as there was no presence of long-run association established amidst the variables confirmed by Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests. The result indicated that a surge in both internal fiscal shocks and external shocks (terms of trade) boosts welfare, while official development assistance does not improve welfare in these countries. We, therefore, advocate the intensification of pro-poor government expenditure and official development assistance. Diversification into non-primary exports is also imperative.

Suggested Citation

  • Evelyn Nwamaka Ogbeide-Osaretin & Victoria Nkiruka Ishiwu, 2021. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Aggregate Welfare in Sub-Saharan African Countries," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 380-396.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrn:journl:y:2021:i:4:p:380-396
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journal.ue-varna.bg/uploads/20220329012830_925825656243097e3e280.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Ssozi & Simplice Asongu & Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2019. "The effectiveness of development aid for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 284-305, March.
    2. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry, 2003. "Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 213-240, June.
    3. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    4. Evelyn Osaretin Ogbeide & Richardson Kojo Edeme & Innocent A. Ifelunini, 2016. "Can Income Inequality Reduction Be Used As An Instrument For Poverty Reduction? Dynamic Evidence From Nigeria," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 8(2 (July)), pages 307-319.
    5. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    6. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
    7. Mr. Giovanni Melina & Mr. Rafael A Portillo, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/040, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ronald Mendoza, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks, Poor Household and Children: Transmission Channels and Policy Responses," Working papers 0901, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.
    2. Weerachart T. Kilenthong & Robert M. Townsend, 2014. "A Market Based Solution to Price Externalities: A Generalized Framework," NBER Working Papers 20275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jorg Bibow, 2004. "Fiscal Consolidation: Contrasting Strategies & Lessons From International Experiences," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_400, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2004. "Smoothing sudden stops," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 104-127, November.
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
    7. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    8. Pratap, Sangeeta & Urrutia, Carlos, 2004. "Firm dynamics, investment and debt portfolio: balance sheet effects of the Mexican crisis of 1994," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 535-563, December.
    9. Christoffersen, Peter & Ghysels, Eric & Swanson, Norman R., 2002. "Let's get "real" about using economic data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-360, August.
    10. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2004. "Putting the brakes on Sudden Stops: the financial frictions - moral hazard tradeoff of asset price guarantees," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    12. Maya Eden, 2017. "Misallocation and the Distribution of Global Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 592-622, February.
    13. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    14. Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
    15. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    16. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    17. Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Financial crises and exchange rate policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 202-215.
    18. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Forecasting large datasets with Bayesian reduced rank multivariate models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 735-761, August.
    19. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
    20. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic Shocks; Welfare; Sub-Saharan Africa; panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrn:journl:y:2021:i:4:p:380-396. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yana Doneva (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevarbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.