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Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections

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Listed:
  • Robert R. Prechter Jr.
  • Deepak Goel
  • Wayne D. Parker
  • Matthew Lampert

Abstract

We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for reelection. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (a) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of reelection outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment; and (b) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert R. Prechter Jr. & Deepak Goel & Wayne D. Parker & Matthew Lampert, 2012. "Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections," SAGE Open, , vol. 2(4), pages 21582440124, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:2:y:2012:i:4:p:2158244012459194
    DOI: 10.1177/2158244012459194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Zaheda Daruwala, 2022. "Reactive or Immune: Stock Market Behaviour During Subsequent Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 92-106, November.
    3. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    4. Fan Wang, 2018. "Elections, Political Control and Duration of Stock Market Cycles," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201810, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2018.
    5. Angelini, Eliana & Foglia, Matteo & Ortolano, Alessandra & Leone, Maria, 2018. "The “Donald” and the market: Is there a cointegration?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 30-37.
    6. John Fry & Andrew Brint, 2017. "Bubbles, Blind-Spots and Brexit," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
    7. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2021. "Attention to the Election-Economics-Politics (EEP) Nexus in the Indian Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 13(1), pages 7-32, June.

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