IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/1985010108000013085.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests

Author

Listed:
  • McNulty, Mark S.

Abstract

Assume that economic agents form expectations rationally by forecasting future prices with the stochastic expectation of price, conditional upon an observed set of information. If information used in forming expectations is considered a scarce resource, profit maximizing agents will acquire additional information until the marginal cost of that activity equals the marginal benefit. Agents engaged in purely productive activities are considered, and it is assumed that there is no opportunity for speculation. The benefits of information usage are shown to depend upon the parameters of the market in which the agent is participating. In certain situations, the information used by one agent may create both positive and negative externalities in the market;If information is considered a costly resource, then one does not expect agents to use all that is available, even if expectations are formed rationally. The applicability of different econometric tests of the hypothesis of rationality are discussed in light of this fact. Special attention is given to estimation and hypothesis testing when the error in the model is serially correlated;An empirical analysis of expectation formation in the chicken broiler market is conducted. The results imply that short run production decisions in this industry do not satisfy the rational expectations model. It is suggested that the value of information to broiler producers is relatively small in the short run because of an inability to make substantial short-run changes in the level of production. A cobweb model of expectation formation performed well in describing producer behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:1985010108000013085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/6b39e833-e3b1-43d3-9022-747328edba34/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-798, May.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    8. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    9. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
    10. Huang, Kuo S & Haidacher, Richard C, 1983. "Estimation of a Composite Food Demand System for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 285-291, October.
    11. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1980. "A pitfall in estimation of models with rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 433-435, July.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    13. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-574, September.
    14. Kennan, John, 1979. "The Estimation of Partial Adjustment Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1441-1455, November.
    15. Chang, Hui-shyong, 1977. "Functional Forms and the Demand for Meat in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 355-359, August.
    16. Shiller, Robert J., 1978. "Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
    17. Masanao Aoki & Matthew Canzoneri, 1979. "Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 59-71.
    18. Smith, Richard, 1983. "On the classical nature of the Wu-Hausman statistics for the independence of stochastic regressors and disturbance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 357-364.
    19. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1980. "Economic Losses from Forecasting Error in Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 234-258, April.
    20. Pesaran, M. H., 1981. "Identification of rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 375-398, August.
    21. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. ""Rational Expectations": A Correction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 799-800.
    22. Sanford J. Grossman, 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(4), pages 541-559.
    23. Grossman, Sanford, 1975. "Rational expectations and the econometric modeling of markets subject to uncertainty : A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 255-272, August.
    24. Huntzinger, R. La Var, 1979. "Market analysis with rational expectations : Theory and estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 127-145, June.
    25. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-343, July.
    26. Sargent, Thomas J, 1978. "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1009-1044, December.
    27. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    28. Sanford J. Grossman, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 431-449.
    29. Startz, Richard, 1983. "Testing rational expectations by the use of overidentifying restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 343-351, December.
    30. Richard E. Kihlstrom & Leonard J. Mirman, 1975. "Information and Market Equilibrium," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 357-376, Spring.
    31. Pierce, David A., 1975. "Forecasting in dynamic models with stochastic regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 349-374, November.
    32. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 701-718, August.
    33. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Schmidt, Peter, 1981. "Testing the restrictions implied by the rational expectations hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 265-287, February.
    34. Rulon Pope & Richard Green & Jim Eales, 1980. "Testing for Homogeneity and Habit Formation in a Flexible Demand Specification of U.S. Meat Consumption," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(4), pages 778-784.
    35. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
    36. Ross M. Starr, 1973. "Optimal Production and Allocation under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(1), pages 81-95.
    37. Jean-Paul Chavas & Stanley R. Johnson, 1982. "Supply Dynamics: The Case of U.S. Broilers and Turkeys," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 558-564.
    38. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-536, May/June.
    39. Bruce L. Gardner, 1976. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 81-84.
    40. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    41. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    42. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
    43. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
    44. Brock, William A., 1972. "On models of expectations that arise from maximizing behavior of economic agents over time," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 348-376, December.
    45. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1978. "The Future and the Present in Economic Life," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 157-169, April.
    46. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: AnAlternative Procedure," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 484-490, June.
    47. Kantor, Brian, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Economic Thought," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1422-1441, December.
    48. Jerry Green, 1977. "The Non-existence of Informational Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(3), pages 451-463.
    49. Revankar, Nagesh S, 1980. "Testing of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1347-1363, September.
    50. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    51. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    52. Maddock, Rodney & Carter, Michael, 1982. "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 39-51, March.
    53. William Poole, 1976. "Rational Expectations in the Macro Model," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(2), pages 463-514.
    54. Verrecchia, Robert E, 1982. "Information Acquisition in a Noisy Rational Expectations Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1415-1430, November.
    55. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1980. "Macroeconometric testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 69-82, January.
    56. Hirshleifer, J & Riley, John G, 1979. "The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information-An Expository Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1375-1421, December.
    57. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    58. Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-667, November.
    59. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    60. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    61. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Generalized Least Squares with an Estimated Autocovariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 723-732, July.
    62. Schultz, Theodore W, 1975. "The Value of the Ability to Deal with Disequilibria," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 827-846, September.
    63. Michael K. Wohlgenant & William F. Hahn, 1982. "Dynamic Adjustment in Monthly Consumer Demands for Meats," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 553-557.
    64. Jean-Paul Chavas, 1983. "Structural Change in the Demand for Meat," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(1), pages 148-153.
    65. Lahiri, Kajal, 1980. "Rational expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve reply and further results," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-192.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    4. Tegene, Abebayehu, 1983. "A rational expectations approach to the modelling of agricultural supply: a case study of Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009963, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
    6. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    8. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Garcia, René, 1986. "La théorie économique de l’information : exposé synthétique de la littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(1), pages 88-109, mars.
    10. Catherine Rouzaud, 1983. "Anticipations rationnelles et information révélée par les prix : une introduction," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(6), pages 1116-1144.
    11. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    12. Hwang, Mann-Fen Susan, 1983. "Testing the natural rate hypothesis under the assumption of rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1983010108000017450, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Palm, F.C. & Nijman, Th., 1984. "Consistent estimation using proxy-variables in models with unobserved variables," Serie Research Memoranda 0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    14. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    15. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation," Staff Report 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Langley, Suchada Vichitakul, 1982. "The formation of price expectations: a case study of the soybean market," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800009358, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Mäkinen, Taneli & Ohl, Björn, 2015. "Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 585-633.
    18. Michael Funke, 2005. "Inflation in Mainland China - Modelling a Roller Coaster Ride," Working Papers 152005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. Hazard, Suzanne & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1984. "The Use of Expectations In Agricultural Supply Response," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278895, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Shonkwiler, J. Scott & Spreen, Thomas H., 1980. "The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: An Empirical Application To The Florida Escarole Market," 1980 Annual Meeting, July 27-30, Urbana-Champaign, Illinois 278478, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:1985010108000013085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.