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Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?

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  • Patrick Fève

Abstract

[eng] Ways of Macroeconometrics Modelling The aim of this paper is to present various routes of macro-econometric modelling and to discuss their advantages and limits. We first review the main properties of macro-econometric models and discuss the main reasons which led to their gradual neglecting, at least in the academic world. We then present the VAR methodology and we show that this approach can suffer from important limits. Next, we present the DSGE approach and discuss some econometric problems. Finally, we study the links between descriptive and structural approaches in macro- modelling. [fre] Patrick Fève Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique. L'objet de cet article est de présenter les différentes voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique et de discuter des apports et des limites de ces approches. Nous présentons dans un premier temps la modélisation issue de la macro-économie de la synthèse et discutons des raisons de son abandon progressif, du moins à un niveau académique. Nous exposons ensuite les apports de la méthodologie VAR et nous montrons à l'aide d'un exemple numérique certaines limites de cette approche. Puis, nous présentons l'approche structurelle des modèles d'équilibre général intertemporels stochastiques et certains problèmes posés par cette modélisation. Finalement, nous esquissons certaines pistes de rapprochement entre ces différentes voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique.

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  • Patrick Fève, 2005. "Voies de la modélisation macro-économétrique?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 20(1), pages 147-179.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2005_num_20_1_1567
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2005.1567
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2005.1567
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