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Macroeconomic Determinants of the Vote in Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • W. Mark Crain

    (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

  • Thomas H. Deaton

    (Appalachian State University)

  • Robert D. Tollison

    (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University)

Abstract

In a 1971 paper Kramer attempted to establish empirically that macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on the vote shares received by Democratic and Republican congressional candidates. He found mixed results, with the growth rate in per capita real income and the inflation rate being important determinants of vote shares, and with the unemployment rate being statistically unimportant. Subsequent studies in this area have also found mixed and some times conflicting results. By using levels of macroeconomic variables rather than rates of change and by examining vote shares in presidential rather than congressional elections, m this paper we were able to detect a consistent and statistically significant relationship between macroeconomic variables and the vote by party in presidential elections.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Mark Crain & Thomas H. Deaton & Robert D. Tollison, 1978. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Vote in Presidential Elections," Public Finance Review, , vol. 6(4), pages 427-438, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:6:y:1978:i:4:p:427-438
    DOI: 10.1177/109114217800600403
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. McCallum, B T, 1970. "Artificial Orthogonalization in Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 110-113, February.
    3. Arcelus, Francisco & Meltzer, Allan H., 1975. "The Effect of Aggregate Economic Variables on Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1232-1239, December.
    4. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
    5. Irma Adelman & Cynthia Taft Morris, 1965. "A Factor Analysis of The Interrelationship Between Social and Political Variables and Per Capita Gross Naitonal Product," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 79(4), pages 555-578.
    6. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-167, May.
    7. Farebrother, R W, 1972. "Principal Component Estimators and Minimum Mean Square Error Criteria in Regression Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(3), pages 332-336, August.
    8. Goodman, Saul & Kramer, Gerald H., 1975. "Comment on Arcelus and Meltzer, The Effect of Aggregate Economic Conditions on Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1255-1265, December.
    9. Pidot, George B, Jr, 1969. "A Principal Components Analysis of the Determinants of Local Government Fiscal Patterns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 176-188, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul R. Blackley & Edward M. Shepard, 1994. "A Statistical Analysis of the Effect of State-Level Economic Conditions On the 1992 Presidential Election," Public Finance Review, , vol. 22(3), pages 366-382, July.
    2. Robert Michaels, 1986. "Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 113-124, January.

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