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Captive supplies and cash market prices for fed cattle: a dynamic rational expectations model of delivery timing

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  • Schroeter, John R.

Abstract

Several empirical analyses of data from fed cattle markets have found a negative correlation between a region's weekly delivery volume of captive supply cattle and contemporaneous price in the local cash market. This negative correlation has been cited as evidence of a causal relationship between the two variables; a relationship in which buyers (beef packing plants) use captive supply procurement as an instrument to depress prices paid to cash market sellers (feeders). This paper investigates circumstances under which this empirical regularity might emerge as a benign artifact of buyer and seller behavior in a fed cattle market in which both sides are price takers. One feature of these markets is that sellers of both marketing agreement (the predominant captive supply procurement method) cattle and spot market cattle have some flexibility in scheduling delivery in order to take advantage of expected price changes. The effect that this type of inter-temporal arbitrage has on the dynamics of price and captive supply is investigated using simulation methods applied to a rational expectations model of delivery timing incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Schroeter, John R., 2007. "Captive supplies and cash market prices for fed cattle: a dynamic rational expectations model of delivery timing," ISU General Staff Papers 200701180800001176, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:200701180800001176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    2. Elam, Emmett W., 1992. "Cash Forward Contracting Versus Hedging Of Fed Cattle, And The Impact Of Cash Contracting On Cash Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Duewer, Lawrence A. & Nelson, Kenneth E., 1991. "Beefpacking and Processing Plants: Computer-Assisted Cost Analysis," Staff Reports 278515, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Ted C. Schroeder & Rodney Jones & James Mintert & Andrew P. Barkley, 1993. "The Impact of Forward Contracting on Fed Cattle Transaction Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 325-337.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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