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Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings

Author

Listed:
  • Ray C. Fair

    (Cowles Foundation)

  • John F. Oster

    (General)

Abstract

The method in Fair and Shiller (1990) is used in this paper to compare the predictive information content of various college football ranking systems. The results show that a number of systems have useful independent information. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the individual systems. The results also provide a fairly precise estimate of the size of the home field advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster, 2002. "Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm310, Yale School of Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm310
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    File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=335801
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    Cited by:

    1. Itay Fainmesser & Chaim Fershtman & Neil Gandal, 2009. "A Consistent Weighted Ranking Scheme With an Application to NCAA College Football Rankings," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(6), pages 582-600, December.
    2. Nutting Andrew W., 2011. "And After That, Who Knows?: Detailing the Marginal Accuracy of Weekly College Football Polls," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-17, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Football Rankings; Predictive Information;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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