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The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Bulligan

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Fabio Busetti

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Michele Caivano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Pietro Cova

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Davide Fantino

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alberto Locarno

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Lisa Rodano

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The Bank of Italy quarterly econometric model (BIQM) is a large-scale ‘semi structural’ macro-econometric model. It tries to strike the right balance between theoretical rigour and statistical fit to the data. This paper provides an update of the features and the properties of the model, focussing on the empirical estimates of its main equations and on the system responses to various shocks; interactions and feedback mechanisms between the financial and the real side of the economy are also illustrated. The BIQM is primarily used to produce macroeconomic forecasts, but it is also employed – in conjunction with other tools – for evaluating the impact of monetary and fiscal policy options and for counterfactual analyses. Examples of the types of macro-economic analyses carried out with the model are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1130_17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2018. "Italy’s Price Competitiveness: An Empirical Assessment Through Export Elasticities," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 421-462, November.
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    8. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Assessing the usefulness of survey‐based data in forecasting firms' capital formation: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 491-513, April.
    9. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2021. "Forecasting corporate capital accumulation in Italy: the role of survey-based information," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Rafael Ravnik, 2021. "Introducing Policy Analysis Croatian MAcroecoNometric Model (PACMAN)," Surveys 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    11. Elshurafa, Amro M. & Alatawi, Hatem & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Algahtani, Goblan J. & Felder, Frank A., 2022. "Cost, emission, and macroeconomic implications of diesel displacement in the Saudi agricultural sector: Options and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Rosa Canelli & Riccardo Realfonzo & Francesco Zezza, 2022. "An empirical Stock‐Flow Consistent regional model of Campania," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(1), pages 209-257, February.
    13. Davide Delle Monache & Claudia Pacella, 2024. "The drivers of inflation dynamics in Italy over the period 2021-2023," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A Macro–Micro Narrative of Italian Exports," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, March.
    15. Valerio Della Corte & Stefano Federico & Enrico Tosti, 2018. "Unwinding external stock imbalances? The case of Italy�s net international investment position," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Claudio Socci & Francesco Felici & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Renato Loiero, 2021. "The Multisector Applied Computable General Equilibrium Model for Italian Economy (MACGEM-IT)," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 109-127, March.
    17. Francesco Zezza & Gennaro Zezza, 2020. "A Stock-Flow Consistent Quarterly Model of the Italian Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_958, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Robert-Paul Berben & Ide Kearney & Robert Vermeulen, 2018. "DELFI 2.0, DNB's Macroeconomic Policy Model of the Netherlands," DNB Occasional Studies 1605, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro-econometric models; Italy; forecasting; policy simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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