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Monetary policy rules under bounded rationality

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  • Dobrew, Michael
  • Gerke, Rafael
  • Kienzler, Daniel
  • Schwemmer, Alexander

Abstract

We study the welfare performance of various simple monetary policy rules under bounded rationality (BR) along the lines of Gabaix (2020) in a New Keynesian model with sticky wages and an effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates. Policy strategies with a strong history dependence lose their advantage over inflation targeting in mitigating a demand-driven recessions when interest rates are constrained by the ELB. For supply shocks, inflation t argeting o utperforms h istory-dependent r ules f or a s ufficiently high degree of BR. An exponential average inflation targeting rule, which features a variable degree of history dependence, performs remarkably well, independent of the degree of BR.

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrew, Michael & Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Schwemmer, Alexander, 2023. "Monetary policy rules under bounded rationality," Discussion Papers 18/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:182023
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    Cited by:

    1. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "Monetary-Fiscal Forward Guidance," MPRA Paper 120563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Masek, Frantisek & Zemlicka, Jan, 2024. "Average inflation targeting: how far to look into the past and the future?," Working Paper Series 2955, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounded Rationality; Sticky Wages; Monetary Policy Strategies; Zero LowerBound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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